Election Mythbusting: Kerry did not lead in Ohio and Florida prior to the '04 vote.

[Zynx]

This is an often repeated lie by many on this site that I feel breaks morale and discourages our resolve. Here's a link for everyone:
http://www.surveyusa.com/Scorecards/Scorecard2004AllGeneralX.html

Kerry clearly trailed in Ohio and Florida polling was all over the place, but on average he was slightly behind there as well. The idea that Obama's leads in these states are meaningless is simply incorrect. If he maintains them at current levels, he will win them more likely than not.

[ProSense]

1. How can anyone use the 2004 election, especially Ohio, as

a gauge for anything?

[Zynx]

2. It confirmed most of the voting trends from 2004 in close elections.

We could see pretty firmly what the two parties' bases of support were.

[ProSense]

4. Does it confirm

how many votes were suppressed (est. 350,000) and the extent to which the GOP tampered with the election?

[Zynx]

6. That has precisely 5% relation to my OP.

[ProSense]

7. The actually OH election and results has everything to do with your OP n/t

[beachmom]

3. Yes, and the president's approval ratings hovered near or at 50%

That kind of number is a predictor of an encumbent getting re-elected. 2008's structure is definitely in the Democrats' favor. This does not mean we can relax or think it's in the bag, but that our chances are far better than 2004. I think Kerry's debate performances were what allowed him to get as close as he did in an election that was set up to favor the encumbent (war time president, 50% approval rating, the country still extremely afraid).

[blm]

5. And 2008 is nothing like 2004 - Homeland Security isn't ginning up terror alerts every

time Obama makes a crucial hit against McCain.

I also believe that Rather's lawsuit against CBS, his admission that corpmedia was protecting Bush in 2004 for the favorable rulings they expected in a Bush second term, and McClellan's current book tour that validates the charge the media went easy on Bush has made some in the media concerned about being seen as Bush's watercarriers. Now, they were ALL warriors in questioning Bush all these years, dontcha know?

[Mass]

8. Do you have the polls from June. I think this is what people are referring to, though I do not know

whether a comparison is adequate or not.

In addition, I would say that polls that early are meaningless. What is important is to spread the message to those who have not heard it yet.

[27inCali]

9. WORRY WARTS NEED TO FUCK OFF

SERIOUSLY.