Ok, Show Me On the Map, How McDubya Wins.

[tekisui]

I say he can't win. Obama could lose. The only way grampy would go anywhere is for Obama to self-destruct. Obama has proved that he is a measured, confident and powerful campaigner, and I trust he will not go down in a blaze.

When I say McDubya CANNOT win, I am looking at the map.

Here is The Map from Kerry/* 2004:



The final Electoral College count was 286-252.

All of Kerry's are considered strong or safe Dem. Obama starts with a 252 base. McDubya, however starts with a 189 base. Here are this year's "swing states".


Iowa- 7 Electoral College Votes
Missouri- 11
Ohio- 20
Virginia- 13
Florida- 27
Colorado- 9
New Mexico- 5
Nevada- 5

Let's accept mcbush takes Nevada. He starts 76 Electoral College votes from 270. Obama starts just 18 shy.

Show me the realistic combination that will give 76 of the remaining 92 Electoral College votes to mcbush. Obama is doing well in Ohio, Florida, Missouri, Virginia and Colorado.

Which combination of those states could swing the election to mcbush. Show me the map and tell me the scenario.

Obama is NOT going to allow himself to be swiftboated, and the American People are NOT going to buy it. And, when it comes, it will not swing 5 of the remaining swing states.

We still must work hard, Get Out The Vote. Respond forcefully to every attack. And, throw the first punches.

[Bullet1987]

1. If Obama can take OH and/or FL and just keep Kerry's

states...that's the election right there.

[melody]

2. Hush you hope peddler, you!

Don't you know despair and defeat are the default modes?

[tekisui]

3. A bunch of self defeatist.

[melody]

6. bingo n/t

[Alexander]

4. The 50-state strategy will give us a buffer by winning smaller states.

Yes, Obama could win it with just Ohio, but why settle for that when you can grab Nevada, Iowa, Colorado, Virginia and New Mexico, too?

[Bullet1987]

8. Of course...all of those are nice

I was just giving him the simple answer.

[Hippo_Tron]

5. Right now Michigan doesn't look safe, but it's still early

Michigan like New Jersey is a semi-annual GOP bastion of false hope. So I'm not worried about it yet.

[SoCalDem]

7. My sig shows the bare minimum Obama needs (he'll get more)

but McGrumpipants can have all the rest, and Obama still wins..

I think McCain will get less than 200 evs.

[tekisui]

9. He can't do it.

He would have to damn near sweep the swings. It ain't gonna happen, not with grampy.

[hokies4ever]

10. McCain's offshore drilling is meant to appeal to blue collar voters

He's staking a claim on that voter block right now, even at the risk of making Florida competitive. It's clear that's his strategy. Also, don't underestimate Michigan. McCain will probably want that state in play, and it will be a swing state this fall. Selecting Romney could help him even more in Michigan. McCain will also be hoping for a PA hail mary.

[Hippo_Tron]

12. You're right about the blue collar workers, but I don't think Romney helps much in Michigan...

And IMO the fact that Charlie Crist followed him on the issue at potentially great risk to his re-election means that Crist is very very high up in the running for the VP slot. McCain's plan IMO is to piss off Florida but to pick Crist so that he maintains the edge there.

[hokies4ever]

13. Romney's father was a popular governor of Michigan

and many political pundits credit that fact with Romney winning Michigan in the Republican Primary.

[Hippo_Tron]

17. I don't doubt it helped Romney in the primary, don't think it will help McCain in the GE

"Vote for me, my running mate's father used to be Governor" doesn't sway a whole lot of people to your side. Also, the Republican Primary electorate is likely older than the general electorate of Michigan and more of them probably remember when Romney's father was in office. And IMO the Mormon issue will depress fundie turnout in places that Mccain needs it.

[Cha]

11. That's a helluva lot of

red..I like Obama's vision of it being One Amercia..all Blue:P

[dems_rightnow]

14. California could fall into the ocean

Beyond that, I don't think Obama can lose. Obviously, I'm coming out AGAINST California falling into the ocean.

[davidpdx]

15. I agree the map looks very favorable

but we still have to work our collective butts off and keep our eye on the August/September switcharoo possiblity.

[cloudythescribbler]

16. Obama could win by taking all of Bush's states from 04 minus colorado & say iowa