Insider Advantage: Georgia - McCindy's Private Jet (44), Obama (43)

[malik flavors]

McCain and Obama tied in Georgia

Compiled from InsiderAdvantage and Southern Political Report staff


June 19, 2008 — A New InsiderAdvantage / PollPosition survey conducted June 18 of registered likely voters in the November presidential contest shows Sen. John McCain leading Sen. Barack Obama by a single point in Georgia, making the race in Georgia a statistical tie. Libertarian Bob Barr, a former Republican Congressman from Georgia, received 6 percent of the vote. The telephone survey of 408 registered likely voters is weighted for age, race, gender, and political affiliation. The survey has a margin of error of +/- 5%. It was conducted with InsiderAdvantage’s research partner Majority Opinion Research. PollPosition is InsiderAdvantage’s new branding name (look for additional information and expansion of PollPosition in the coming months).

The Results:

McCain: 44%

Obama: 43%

Barr: 6%

Undecided: 7%

Check here for crosstabs.

Analysis from InsiderAdvantage CEO Matt Towery:
“As Barack Obama has become the clear presumptive nominee of his party, the race has become defined and voters appear to be taking early stands in the race.

“Georgia is competitive for Obama for several reasons. First, it has a high African-American voting age population (VAP). Second, it has an unusually high percentage of younger voters (18-29). Both of these groups are more in the Obama camp, with black voters already at the 83 percent level and likely to climb.

“Equally important, like its neighbor Florida, Georgia has a high percentage of voters who consider themselves independent. Obama is carrying that critical swing vote by about 10 percent in the poll.

In this survey, as in almost every survey we have seen or conducted, there is a ‘great divide’ among age groups. Among those 45 years of age and older, McCain is the clear leader. Among voters who are 44 years of age or younger, Obama leads.
As to the Bob Barr effect, Barr’s numbers dropped slightly overall from our poll of Georgia in March. However, he remains at a 6% level, healthy for a Libertarian. And among senior voters he receives nearly 10% of the vote.

My view is that Georgia, the 9th largest state in the nation with 15 electoral votes, will remain a major new battleground state through November. This changes the landscape of electoral politics as Georgia, North Carolina, Virginia, and perhaps another surprise southern state, join Florida as potential “swing states,” that cannot be presumed to vote Republican in 2008.”

http://www.southernpoliticalreport.com/storylink_619_444.aspx

[bluestateguy]

1. If this poll is accurate, McCain is in deep shit

But given the hard right turn that state has taken in the last 10 years, I want to wait and see more polls before being convinced that Georgia will be on the table.

[Barack_America]

7. Indeed.

My thoughts exactly.

[Blondiegrrl]

8. I think it's unlikely that Obama will win Georgia, but what makes me happy

is that McCain is probably shitting his Depends over polls like this. :evilgrin:

[thewiseguy]

2. Their last poll had McLame up by 10

Barr is just killing McCain in Georgia

[adoraz]

3. incredible. simply incredible.

I thought they were nuts when they started talking about Georgia.

[TornadoTN]

4. This is amazing - and indicative of the rest of the nation

Barr is going to get 10-15% of the vote in GA, you can bank on that. I have a business contact outside of Atlanta and he's a big Libertarian backer - he says their internal polling in the Atlanta metro area all the way down to Savannah is showing Barr taking a huge chunk of McCain voters away.

[roseBudd]

5. Anybody who thought not casting our lot with the swelling demographic of young voters over older

blue collar whites, alienating African Americans to choose Hillary over the black guy with the most pledged delegates, is not thinkinh.

Older so-called "socially conservative" white voters are a diminishing pool with fewer election cycles.

[Doctor_J]

6. Obama +10 among indies

b=bye, McDepends

[Colobo]

9. Obama will win big. I'm telling you.

[MarjorieG]

10. Same secret voting machines that lost us Max Cleland

The bin Laden ad was just a media cover/rationalization.

However, as with other states, we are changing our brand and changing the map to reflect the true differences and grwoth. We won't do it in one cycle, but we're still making miracles with this savvy political team and leader!

[woolldog]

11. Insider Advantage sucks.

Don't trust it.