The Daily Widget – Friday, June 20 – Obama 336-202 (Special note on Rasmussen)

[phrigndumass]

The widgets and charts are below. First, a brief tangent:

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Rasmussen, and the watering down of the polling field …

About a hundred state polls have been released since the end of the primary season a couple weeks ago, and we have seen the number of undecided voters from these polls range anywhere between 5% and 18%. On Wednesday alone there were nine polls released, and only two of those polls had greater than 10% undecideds, both by Rasmussen. Then on Thursday, Rasmussen released three more polls, all of them with undecideds greater than 10%. So I thought I would dig deeper.

Of all the state polls released in the last two weeks, these are the total average undecideds by polling agency (first tier agencies only):
7.5% Average Undecided Voters – Survey USA
8.5% Average Undecided Voters – Research 2000
8.5% Average Undecided Voters – American Research Group
9.5% Average Undecided Voters – Quinnipiac University
9.5% Average Undecided Voters – Public Policy Polling
12.25% Average Undecided Voters – Rasmussen Reports

Now the percentage of the total state polls released in the last two weeks (first tier agencies only):
46% - Rasmussen Reports
26% - Survey USA
11% - Quinnipiac University
6% - Public Policy Polling
6% - Research 2000
5% - American Research Group

The average number of undecideds from these polls is 10.14%. Of all the polling agencies, only one agency has an average of undecideds above 10.14% … Rasmussen. Since Rasmussen is releasing about half of all the state polls, and since Rasmussen’s margin of error is always 4.5% (higher than all the other agencies), it’s easy to see how Rasmussen weakens the field with less reliable polls.

This is why I don’t average the polls together for each state for projections, unless they are taken during the same time period and meet certain criteria. Averaging polls together adds the weakest of polls into the mix and waters down the results.

I use a strength of projection as a methodology for projecting electoral votes. Under this methodology, all the polls are still used but the weakest of the polls (being older than 35 days or having undecideds greater than 10%) are given less weight. Doing so, along with other methodologies, makes my projections accurate to +/-4%, better than Rasmussen’s +/-4.5%.

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I return you now to your regularly scheduled widget. :7 (By the way, Obama is within one point in Georgia, and Barr is taking 6% there! Har!)








Yesterday’s Widget
Full Weekly Tracking
Past editions of THE MATH


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TRACKING



^ Things are leveling off at a nice place to come to a rest! Demeter says there's something wrong with this chart: I need to make room for 400, lol! That's a good problem to have!



^ Speaking of watering down the polling field, RCP's poll average was affected by the national Faux News poll yesterday. The Faux News poll shows 19% Undecided. Talk about a useless result!



^ Another day, another all-time high. Ohio take a big leap north, moving much further away from the zone. Traders are beginning to believe that Ohio won't be as much in play this year as other states for Obama. And Iowa jumps back into the 80's today.



Both Intrade and Rasmussen Markets move down today from their all-time highs yesterday for Obama.


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^ PLEASE NOTE: This map is not a prediction.
It is a map of the states which are currently
either polling or trading blue. :D


Sources:
Pollster.com
FiveThirtyEight.com
Electoral-Vote.com
Intrade
Rasmussen Markets
RCP Average
RCP Latest Polls


Donate to the Obama Campaign today through DU’s donation link at Barack Obama’s website:
http://my.barackobama.com/page/outreach/view/main/du

What is this? THE MATH’s Daily Widget was created to track multiple daily sources which measure the potential success of Barack Obama’s presidential campaign. Projected Electoral Votes are on a scale of 0 to 538, with 270 being a majority, or projected win. Trading and Averages are on a scale of 0 to 100, with 50.1 being a majority, or projected win.

The Wigand Electoral Average uses public polling results to determine base states for both parties and a short list of swing states, and combines the actual electoral votes from base states with a weighted Intrade calculation for electoral votes from swing states to derive an average on a scale of 0 to 100. On this scale, greater than 50.00 is considered a win for Barack Obama. An average of 50.10 would yield 270 electoral votes, and an average of 100.00 would yield 538 electoral votes. More Information

.

[jefferson_dem]

1. Looking good!

Thanks, phrigndumass, for my daily "widget fix".

[phrigndumass]

2. Thanks jd!

:donut: Good morning! :hi:

[tekisui]

3. Watching GA.

Barr could very well help swing GA, VA and a Carolina.

Thanks for the work.

[phrigndumass]

5. Six percent is quite a take! I think it was NC where Barr had 6% also.

Georgia has been on my mind lately, lol ... like Ray Charles :7

Thanks tek! :hi:

[grantcart]

13. correct NC has Barr at 6%

[mod mom]

7. Yes, here is what 538 says:

But in Georgia, Insider Advantage has that state tightening to a single point; John McCain leads 44-43, with 6 points going to Bob Barr. Insider Advantage's prior poll in Georgia, which also included Barr in the match-ups, had John McCain ahead by 10.

[fight4my3sons]

4. Good morning!

Took me a while to get through it with the craziness in my house! Summer has started here (last day of school was yesterday for my oldest). Legos flying behind my head as I type. Need more coffee.

What does that Rasmussen weak poll stuff mean in terms of the Collins/Allen polls that just came out in Maine?

[phrigndumass]

6. The Collins/Allen poll in Maine showed only 9% Undecided

And Allen is behind by only 7 points. Collins is leading 49 to 42. If most of the Undecideds go to Allen, or if Collins drops in the polls, Allen could win.

Here's a link to the Collins/Allen Rasmussen poll on June 16:

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/state_toplines/maine/toplines_maine_senate_election_june_16_2008

I wish we all could still have two or three months off during the summer! I'd probably build something with Legos, too!

:donut: Good morning, f4m3s! :hi:

[grantcart]

8. Is the quiz on Monday going to include the material on Rasmussen or is that for extra credit?

[phrigndumass]

9. What the hell dragged you outta bed so early this morning? lol ...

That was supposed to be a "pop" quiz, but you've gone and ruined it. So the test begins NOW! Let's see how the student body treats Mr. Popular Big-Man-On-Campus now, lol ...

:7

[grantcart]

14. friend has a birthday so the SOP is to swing over to the temple and join in a merit making ceremony

by feeding the monks.

[grantcart]

10. The two intrade jumps of $ 5.00 for Ohio and Iowa are very significant.

One has to assume that Bush's rambling discourse there and McCain's discarding of the Governor's request not to come at this time have moved the purchase price to the incredibly high $ 81. People with money do not consider Iowa a swing state anymore.

The state I think is the most important to watch is Ohio. It is the typical bellweather state like Indiana but it has more electoral vote weight.

Beyond that Ohio is the key battle ground state in the fight for increasing Democratic seats in Congress.

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC - excellent website at http://www.dccc.org/ the Senate campaign is at http://www.dscc.org/) has identified 40 congressional seats that they consider to be the highest priority to turn from red to blue and Ohio has 5 of them, compared to 5 in New York and 3 in California (they have since added 14 more seats obviously feeling that their chances to increase that number have improved)

Ohio by far has the highest number of seats in a contested state. For that reason the Presidential candidates will have a doubly important agenda in Ohio, fighting not only for EV but also for Congressional Seats. You might expect that the candidates will make more visits to Ohio than any other state.

Here are Ohios "red to blue" target districts:

Ohio district . . . GOP Incumbant . . . Dem Challenger . . . Bush % '04 . . Dem '06 percent

. . 1 . . . . . . .Steve Chabot . . . .Steve Driehaus . . . . 51% . . . . . .48%

. . 2 . . . . . . .Jean Schmidt . . . .Victoria Wulsin. . . . 64% . . . . . .49%

. . 14. . . . . . .Steven LaTourette. .William O'Neill. . . . 53% . . . . . .39%

. . 15. . . . . . .Open Seat . . . . . Mary Jo Kilroy . . . . 50% . . . . . .50% (Kilroy was the Dem candidate)

. . 16. . . . . . .Open Seat . . . . .John Boccjeri . . . . . 54% . . . . . .42%

Ohio also is a good example of what you were saying about Rasmussen



Other polls are showing Obama +6 and +11 in Ohio while Rasmussen shows him -1.

The use of Intrade for the swing states is proving to be a much steadier projection vehicle.

Ohio should expect lots of visits by Senator Obama.

[phrigndumass]

11. We definitely have a chance in Ohio

And we need to live there for the next six months! With Obama at the top of the ticket, I'm sure we could dig deep into Ohio and grab some of those congressional seats!

I noticed that Rasmussen's Ohio poll (Obama 43%) showed 13% Undecided. Quinnipiac's Ohio poll showed Obama at 48% with just 10% Undecided, while PPP's Ohio poll had Obama at 50% with 11% Undecided.

Quinnipiac's margin of error is +/- 2.6
PPP's margin of error is +/- 3.6
Rasmussen's margin of error is +/- 4.5

Notice the difference?

[rox63]

12. Rasmussen has a reputation of leaning towards the right

So the fact that their polls are not as positive for Obama doesn't suprise me.

Thanks for all your hard work, phrig. :hi:

[phrigndumass]

16. I agree R leans right ...

but it's not necessarily that Rasmussen's polls are not as positive for Obama, it's that they are weaker overall than the other polls.

For instance, a Wisconsin poll showed Obama leading by 13 points, 50 to 37, with 13% undecideds. But that Wisconsin poll is less useful than the one showing Obama leading only by 9 points, 52 to 43 with 5% undecideds. Other agencies are able to coax the leaners to say whom they are supporting, but Rasmussen always comes up short.

Thanks rox! :hi:

[Demeter]

15. Splendid Job Reporting Splendid Trends

You ought to be able to make some kind of career, or at least consultancy for money, out of this. True public service needs to be rewarded.

[phrigndumass]

18. Thanks Demeter! Did you see your name under the first graph above? lol ...

Gotta make room for 400!

(btw, I already do something similar to this for a living, with a nonprofit org)

:hi:

[Demeter]

21. Yes I Saw

I'm so tickled pink, too. I sure hope Obama isn't a dud. We need something to compensate for 8 years of total disaster and destruction.

[phrigndumass]

25. We need 16 years straight to make up for the past 8, lol

A lot of damange was done in only eight years. WHEN we win, that'll go a long way toward fixing the Supreme Court, the electoral theft, the non-stop waging of war, the big oil and energy companies and insider politics, among other things.

:)

[Demeter]

28. Agreed--But Why Stop at 16?

We've been in turmoil since the assassinations. That's 45 years by my count.

[Clark2008]

17. Please, please, please find me a RECENT Tennessee poll

I keep seeing it solidly in the red, but I haven't seen a real poll since April! Certainly not since Obama became the nominee.

[phrigndumass]

20. I wonder what's up with that! April 3rd was the last poll in TN, yes

Hoping to see new polls soon to replace the outdated ones for these states:

Delaware
Hawaii
Idaho
Illinois
Maryland
North Dakota
Rhode Island
South Dakota
Tennessee
Vermont

Some of these polls are from February 28! :crazy:

:hi:

[Clark2008]

24. Maybe they're scared of what they might find...

Some of these here-to-fore "red" states may actually be turning a bit purplish.

:)

[phrigndumass]

27. Especially in the Dakotas :)

At least one of the Dakotas should be closer this year (knock on wood) :D

[Coexist]

19. I'm so glad you're still doing these!

thanks for your hard work.

[phrigndumass]

22. I'm glad you're still reading! :)

Thanks FLDem5! :hi:

:yourock:

[Liberal_Stalwart71]

23. I still think that he can take North Carolina. I really do! n/t

[phrigndumass]

26. Cousin Bob is going to take care of that for us! :)

Libertarian candidate Bob Barr, that is ...