Survey USA: Obama up by four in Iowa

[book_worm]

Obama: 49%
InSane: 45%

18-34 61-32 Obama
35-49 48-47 Obama
50-64 47-46 Obama
65 plus 49-42 InSane

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=851c4ef8-c6f2-499a-8d2f-bafdb824728b

[Hope And Change]

1. Yay....K & R!

[thewiseguy]

2. Is it me or the poll shows McCain winning the black vote in Iowa?

[liskddksil]

4. it looks like

Black voters make up only 2% of the model, meaning that there is a high margin of error in that demographic group.

[On the Road]

13. Might Also be Some Misleading Answers

by the respondents. I never considered that much of a factor, but in this case maybe it is.

[speedoo]

7. That's right. 55-45.

But there are very few blacks in the sample (consistent with Iowa demographics, I assume) so it has little impact on the overall result.

[Barack_America]

8. It's the sample size.

2% for African Americans and 1% for Hispanics.

Though SUSA has consistently underestimated Obama's support among blacks. It baffles me. It has to be something in their methodology; who they call, how they determine the race of the subject (i.e. by asking, "hey are you black?" vs. having that data in front of them), etc.

[thewiseguy]

11. Their last poll gave Obama 82% of the black vote

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=34d61abd-3c0a-441c-b337-262ffcf3489a

In fact this is the least that Obama has led McCain in Iowa. I suspect that is this latest poll is corrected then his lead would be 7 points.

[mohc]

9. Based on the overall sample size

And their reported percentages of the black vote, it was most like 6-5 McCain-Obama. A sample size of 11 would have a margin of error around 30%, making the percentages almost meaningless.

[Fluffdaddy]

3. Means nothing.......to early

[Barack_America]

5. self-delete.

wrong spot.

[AndyTiedye]

6. Why Are These All So Close?

Almost every poll shows McInsane within election-stealing distance of a "win", or worse.

It's gonna be another "horse race" and we know what that means.

[book_worm]

10. Because it probably is going to be another close election.

[AndyTiedye]

12. If It is Close, They'll Steal It Again

Why is it even close? Why does anybody want McMoreofthesame to be President?

[Thrill]

14. More Proof of these Pollsters fudging the Polls to make it seem close

Obama losing the AA vote to McCain? Give me a damn break