THE MATH Weekly – For the Week Ending Sunday, July 20 – Obama 364, McCain 174 (Link)

[phrigndumass]

Now posted in the Editorials & Other Articles Forum (link below):

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=103x371880

Please keep this link thread kicked in GDP for easier access. Thanks! :D

- Phrig

[berni_mccoy]

1. Great Work Phrig!

:D

[phrigndumass]

2. Thanks Berni!

:hi:

[Kdillard]

3. THANK YOU AND KICK

[phrigndumass]

4. YW AND KICK :)

Hi Kdillard :hi: :D

[psychmommy]

5. nice job phrig

keep up the good work. math sure is sexy.
hey du we have some work to do getting these numbers up.

[phrigndumass]

8. Thanks psychmommy! We definitely have work to do.

:hi:

[Awsi Dooger]

6. Good work overall, but some nonsense

States like Nebraska and South Carolina don't belong in the swing state category. Some of the others are doubtful in that column also, namely North Carolina and Indiana.

It's indicative of too much reliance on state polls. That is foolhardy. Same thing is evidenced in the supposed relationship to this point in 2004. It's ridiculous that Kerry was projected as having a decisive advantage at any point in 2004. Bush was always the betting favorite. I never saw a single offshore outfit or bookie or market site with Kerry as the favorite, other than the brief hours of exit poll hysteria on election afternoon.

The situational dynamic was in play in 2004, Bush as the incumbent with his party in power only one term. People who actually wager on these things pay attention to trump card stuff like that, and how it is likely to attach itself in November. It's the difference between play money and actual participation. The guy who leads the polls is not always the betting chalk. I'm a numbers guy myself but you'll lance yourself in paralyzed reliance on digital crap if you don't understand where numbers are vulnerable.

Like Indiana, the ultimate example this year. I'm looking to wager on McCain in Indiana. The problem: so is everyone I know who is sharp on political wagering. That's why the market price is not getting away in Obama's favor. The wise guys are backing McCain based on foundational knowledge of statewide partisan tendencies, and the goofs clinging to their 2008 state polls are going overboard on Obama, very similar to a few primaries like California and Ohio, where betting on Hillary was a glorified pick-up.

Here is the partisan index chart on Indiana, state relationship to the national voting margin. Example: Bush won nationally by 2.46% in 2004, so that number is used as the benchmark:

Indiana:

'88: Bush (59.84 - 39.69) = + 12.43% Republican
'92: Bush (42.91 - 36.79) = + 11.68% Republican
'96: Dole (47.13 - 41.55) = + 14.11% Republican
'00: Bush (56.65 - 41.01) = + 16.15% Republican
'04: Bush (59.94 - 39.26) = + 18.22% Republican

Okay, so Obama is close in Indiana polling. Does that make sense? Yes, it can. No one is claiming that 2008 is the same national landscape as '04 or the cycles before that. But look at that hurdle, a state that tilts red by double digits every time in recent history, in relation to the national margin. Sorry, but that's the way my money is headed, given value odds. Frankly, the only thing that keeps the Indiana odds this close on Intrade is the possibility of Bayh as VP. Once Obama makes a choice, and assuming it's not Bayh, the Indiana odds will move in McCain's favor. I've already talked to guys who are waiting to pull the trigger at that point. I may invest some, but also wait. In the primaries I learned not to underestimate the wild over reach of some Obama backers. They seem to be novices, even in market wagering. There was no logical reason Obama should have reached near 50/50 in the Ohio primary, for example, but it sat there for weeks. Thank you very much. :)

[phrigndumass]

7. The big difference between you and me is ...

You use statistics for gambling, while I use statistics for analysis and tracking. We have two completely different uses for this information. Like I said last night, we are not using Intrade to make money! The value of Intrade to us is the information gleaned from it to use for projections.

Perhaps before you go any further, you could go back to our original post in May and read about what we are trying to do with Intrade. Here's a link:

http://journals.democraticunderground.com/phrigndumass/51

The 12 swing states we chose were thoroughly researched. Half of them are red-leaning, and half are blue-leaning. The electoral votes outside of these 12 states could be split evenly between Obama base states (200 EV) and McCain base states (199 EV). The 12 states chosen were representative of the country as a whole, instead of one or two regions of the country. The trading from these 12 states as a whole, or as a group, may help determine how the swing states are leaning this year. It's the "wisdom of crowds" as referenced in the link above. Think of it as a mutual fund that grows or shrinks in value based on speculation.

You refer to us as "obviously novices" and use words such as "nonsense" and "foolhardy" ... makes me question your motive for what you posted. Are you more interested in self-promotion via degrading others? I found some useful things in your reply, and I'm willing to learn from you. Are you willing to do likewise?

:hi:

[grantcart]

9. The fact that you focus on Nebraska and South Carolina as poor choice for

swing states indicates you don't have a basic clue what the point of the overall exercise is.

The identification of the twelve states that were picked for the WEA were chosen to give more diversity in state size, geography and demographics. Once selecting them as a base the value is to see them move north and south as an aggregate as invstors trade their shares.

You simply fail to grasp the meaning of the exercize and continue to talk about predicters of a particular state. That is not the intention, not the purpose. The purpose is to serve as a point in time indicater showing movement. It works in the same way as the Dow Jones Industrial Average works to predict the overall market. At any one time it neither indicates the total capital worth of the market or the value of an individual stock.

Taken together the 12 states chosen offer a good representation of the natural middle or swing section of the country and have worked better than projected at the outset.

It has never been thought of as a projector of value of a particular state any more than the Dow Jones is an indicator of a particular stock.

If you have an interest in starting an ongoing discussion of intrade stocks and their relative value you might want to start your own thread and host discussions on it there.

That is not what this thread is about and your aggressive misunderstanding of it and your bragging of your investment proweress in an anonymouos chat room is both somewhat pathetic and tideous.

[jefferson_dem]

10. Kick-er-amma!

Thanks phrigndumass...for all you do!

:applause:

[phrigndumass]

12. Thanks jd!

:hi:

[bigbrother05]

11. k&r

[phrigndumass]

24. Thanks bigbro!

:hi:

[RNdaSilva]

13. Great...per usual.

[phrigndumass]

25. Thanks RN!

:hi:

[Kaleko]

14. Kix with gusto

:)

[phrigndumass]

16. Remember the Schlitz commercials? lol

Schlitz with Gusto

:D

[Kaleko]

20. Had to google that

cuz I'm a fairly recent immigrant. (Arrived just in time to witness the coup d'etat and ensuing mayhem :-()




Reserving my gusto for the phight against phuckin disaster capitalism.

[phrigndumass]

26. lol!

Don't forget phreedom phrom phlogging :D

[fight4my3sons]

15. morning kick

:hi:

[jazzjunkysue]

17. Gramps continues to tank. It's the long-term trend that tells the most.

If it were really a tight race, you'd see some fluctuation inthe direction. Not here. It's a continuous downward spiral.

[phrigndumass]

27. It's early yet, but things are leveling off

No big fluctuations in the popular vote, that's for sure.

:hi:

[Willo]

18. Much appreciated Phrig. K&R nt

[phrigndumass]

28. Thanks WIllo!

:hi:

[phrigndumass]

19. Lining up for a three-pointer

:kick: It's good! :D

[grantcart]

21. no your foot was on the line

[phrigndumass]

29. Laces OUT! lol

On Edit: Is that a ballsac in the back of your skirt? :rofl:

[Kaleko]

22. Making a wild prediction:

McCain will be dropped out of the race citing sudden health problems.

Obama runs against... pppffftt (fill in a name).

VICTORY by default



:-)

[phrigndumass]

23. We're already running against a flerbertz, lol

:hi:

[Kaleko]

30. What's a flerbertz, phrig?

Sounds like a sub-species of orc from Mordor in Lord of the Rings.

[phrigndumass]

31. "pppffftt" :)

commonly known as the Bronx Cheer, or the raspberry sound, blowing with your lips wrapped around your tongue :D

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blowing_a_raspberry

Nobody knows for sure how to spell it, lol

http://answers.yahoo.com/question/index?qid=20071117141721AAlM9Rt

[Kaleko]

32. Ha ha, the Bronx Cheer = pphhhttt = McPhffttt

Only in America, land of the flerbertz and home of the booshed.

Learned something new today, thanks!

[RNdaSilva]

33. Boost...

Need my references on page one.