Gallup: Obama Opens His Largest Lead

[kpete]

Gallup: Obama Opens His Largest Lead
Sen. Barack Obama now leads Sen. John McCain among national registered voters by a 49% to 40%, according to the latest Gallup Tracking Poll.

"The margin, coincident with the extensive U.S. news coverage of Obama's foreign tour, is the largest for Obama over McCain measured since Gallup began tracking the general election horserace in March."

http://www.gallup.com/poll/109102/Gallup-Daily-Obama-49-McCain-40.aspx

[darius15]

1. Great!

this is great news, but I hope Obama can sustain this bounce he's gotten from his trip and Berlin speech.

[Fluffdaddy]

2. Wake me in October when polls means something. After the 3 debates

[Bicoastal]

23. All the same, don't look a gift horse in the mouth.

[grytpype]

28. I would rather be ahead than behind!

[speedoo]

3. We will be hearing "Obama Opens His Largest Lead" again and again.

But only if Obama continues his superb campaigning and we continue to work hard supporting him.

[OmahaBlueDog]

4. I'd be happier if I could see rising battle state numbers

Per RCP

Colorado 47.0 45.3 Obama +1.7
Virginia 47.3 46.3 Obama +1.0
Missouri 45.0 47.5 McCain +2.5
Michigan 46.3 41.7 Obama +4.6
Ohio 46.5 45.0 Obama +1.5
New Jersey 47.6 38.0 Obama +9.6

[Fluffdaddy]

8. You understand the game . National polls means nothing

[unblock]

9. well that's not entirely true

national polls in november mean absolutely nothing. the game is indeed scored by electoral votes based on statewide elections.

however, at this stage, national polls do influence who is the perceived front-runner, and by how much, and how close or inevitable the outcome is. this, in turn, influences where the money goes, who gets the support, the endorsements, etc. those factors, in turn, influence the state races.

in short, the national polls lead, the state polls follow.

[Fluffdaddy]

10. From your post to God's eyes.

I hope it works out that way.

This election will be another close one

[Zynx]

15. I think Obama wins by 7-8 with 370 EVs.

I think this will be a similar spread to 2006.

[OmahaBlueDog]

12. And seeing your sig line reminds me that 1-3 pts of "Bradley Effect" shold be factored in

I hope I'm wrong, but we need to act as if this will turn on getting one or two states that dubya robbed/won the last two times.

I admire our confidence. I think that's something independents/undecideds need to see to be convinced to vote for Barack. That said, when we see a 5 point lead, our reaction needs to be "damn -- we need to raise more advertising money until it's 10 points"

[Zynx]

14. Actually, there is a very strong correlation between national spread and electoral votes.

States tend to follow national trends + or - their own partisan leanings.

[Bjorn Against]

13. Those numbers are looking quite good actually...

Consider that the only battle states you listed that Kerry won are Michigan and New Jersey (and arguably Ohio), but Obama is leading in all of them. While it would be nice if the margin was wider in some of those states, there is no denying that for Obama to be leading in places like Colorado, Virginia, and Missouri which have been pretty Republican leaning in the past is a very positive sign.

[OmahaBlueDog]

16. Off the topic, MN, how is Franken v. Coleman going?

I haven't seen recent numbers.

[Bjorn Against]

18. Could be better...

Most polls show Franken trailing by a small margin, but I saw one recent one that showed him up slightly. The polls do certainly give us cause for concern, I think Franken certainly can win, especially considering the fact that a lot of the young Obama supporters who are likely to vote down ticket for Franken don't have land lines and therefore are not being polled. This is likely to be one of the closest Senate races in the nation though, and it is far too early to predict a winner so we need to keep our fingers crossed.

[opihimoimoi]

5. McCane leads the poll of HOW TO LOSE AN ELECTION BY 10 POINTS OR BETTER

It clearly shows McCane with the trophy in the above competition...he is the winner.

[ChimpersMcSmirkers]

6. Boom! there it is! The 4-ways are even better. GOBAMA!

[EV_Ares]

7. Naturally, this is great news, a 9 pt lead is a landslide. Naturally, this is July and not November

but still very good news. I honestly think if the cranky old man keeps up his crying and whining and continues to call Barack a traitor, not wanting to win the war this lead will widen. Barack is running a great positive campaign, is staying above the crap McCain is throwing out and I think this in itself will be a vote getter for him instead of the McCain negative campaign they run.

[Mass]

11. To what the media this morning were answering: close election. Obama should be

12 or 13 points ahead. He is not closing the deal.

Come on. How can they say Obama is not ahead at this point?

[my3boyz]

17. Now will the media talk about this or the b/s about Obama not visiting troops? nt

[Virginia Dare]

19. Heres' what I'm looking at..

[EV_Ares]

21. Obama also outraised McCain in AZ last month as well, eom.

[Imagevision]

20. Obama filling the Denver stadium should prove to be interesting, Obama even

leads McBush in Arizona by 3 points...

[DeepModem Mom]

22. K&R

[Imagevision]

24. Obama is up in of all places ---Arizona by 3 points over Mcsh*t

[darius15]

25. ^Doubt it

that was a Zogby poll. Nuff said.

But it is interesting, 538 has McCain winning his home state by 8, and pollster has him up by around 4 percent.

I think if McCain wasn't the home state Senator, Arizona would be a prime swing state because there has been a large increase in the Hispanic population.

[OmahaBlueDog]

27. RCP had McSame up 10 in his home court

[usregimechange]

26. Please let this be a trend, working my but off in battleground MO and I want it to pay off

[AtomicKitten]

29. Obama intends to crush McBush.

[thereismore]

30. This is a 3-day average. It must be 12% today, just like that other poll. Yay! nt

[bunnies]

31. Gallup: Obama + 9 and also McCain +5.

Proves they cannot be trusted. Gallup is dead to me.