There is no guarantee that Obama would win Indiana with or without Senator Bayh as VP.

[LiberalFighter]

There was a difference of

2004 - 510,427 votes between Kerry and Bush
2000 - 343,856 votes between Gore and Bush
1996 - 343,568 votes between Clinton and Dole - Perot
1992 - 596,889 votes between Clinton and Bush - Perot

There would have to be anywhere between 171,785 to 298,445 vote switch with a chance to win

There would need to be a 7 to 13% change in the votes.

Voter Turnout
2004 2,468,002
2000 2,232,851

There is also an election for Governor in Indiana. The Democratic candidate has won the office in 1988, 1992, 1996, 2000 while the candidate for President lost in Indiana. The Democratic candidate in 2004 received more votes than Kerry received in Indiana but the Democratic candidate for Governor still lost.

If Obama is going to win Indiana he will have to do extremely well.
Results for Democratic Candidate
Year - Governor * * President
1992 - 1,382,151 ** 848,420
1996 - 1,087,128 ** 887,424
2000 - 1,232,525 ** 901,980
2004 - 1,113,900 ** 969,011

If the Democratic candidate for Governor loses Obama loses.

[saltpoint]

1. Agree that a Jill Long Thompson win in the gubernatorial race bolsters

Obama -- or the other way around, if you look at it that way -- but I think both may win in November.

Many Indianans didn't care for Daniels that much initially and they like him less now. He's not a "Doc
Bowen" kind of Republican governor and his approval ratings are wobbly. He's not handled "Major Moves" very well in the state and is vulnerable.

Jill Long Thompson edged a sturdy primary challenge but Democrats are united behind her and are vehemently opposed to Daniels.

Obama is vigorously contesting the state.

I think we could win the governor's chair and the presidential race as well in Indiana.

[Motown_Johnny]

2. No guarantees, but it could help. Most repugs are not excited about McGaffe, if Bayh got some of

them to stay home instead of voting against Obama and helped bolster Dem turnout in IN it could be the difference maker.

[skipos]

3. Where is the data for recent polls in Indiana?

That should probably be a factor in your argument.

[skipos]

4. Where is the data for recent polls in Indiana?

That should probably be a factor in your argument.