Gallup, 8/3: Obama 45%, McCain 44% (after two days of being tied at 44%)

[highplainsdem]

http://www.gallup.com/poll/109183/Gallup-Daily-Obama-45-McCain-44.aspx

PRINCETON, NJ -- Democrat Barack Obama and Republican John McCain remain statistically tied in the latest Gallup Poll Daily tracking update for July 31-Aug. 2, with Obama at 45% and McCain at 44% among registered voters.

The results reflect a fairly steady pattern of voter sentiment over the last several days, with the two candidates either tied in an absolute sense, or in today's average, statistically tied. As has been the case all summer, the race appears to be settling back into a pattern where Obama has a small margin over McCain. The overall average margin for June and July has been three percentage points in Obama's favor, despite some brief periods of time when Obama led statistically and other times when the race was tied. Obama has been unable to sustain a significant lead over McCain, and the latter has been unable to break into even a small lead over Obama. (To view the complete trend since March 7, 2008, click here.) -- Frank Newport

[Webster Green]

1. Landslide for Obama..

That's my prediction.

Fuck Gallup and the fascist propaganda machine! :kick:

[FrenchieCat]

2. Wait, wait! You just thought you would post this because...?

What are your own comments on these findings? I'm just curious.

[DemocracyInaction]

3. Hopefully a "dead bastard" bounce!

I've been looking for this poll today..thanks for finding it. Hopefully this is a mini start to a trend back up which would be telling McCain and his Rove fuckheads that it didn't work. Of course that means the next step - and undoubtedly much worse - will be thrown at Obama. When do they do Obama's pic next to Osama and tell us he's Osama's son???

[DangerDave921]

4. Same thing

45-44 or 44-44. In the world of polling, makes no difference. Still a statistical dead heat as of today. But what this means in November is up for grabs.

[Teaser]

7. not the same thing.

There is no such thing as a statistical dead heat.

A one point lead is a one point lead. All that changes with the size of the lead is the probability that the lead reflects the real value underlying the population estimate.

It is more likely than not that Barack is leading. Just not as likely if he were to have a 10 point lead.

[DangerDave921]

10. margin of error?

What is the margin of error in the poll? No one talks about that. If the MOE is 3 points, then a one-point lead is meaningless b/c it is still within the MOE.

[Teaser]

16. WRONG

That's not what margin of error means.

[DangerDave921]

17. Then please explain

I am always willing to learn.

[Teaser]

18. margin of error is a "confidence interval"

First off, I hope you didn't take those capitals as being offensive. I'm simply trying to draw attention to the post, because so many people fail to get this concept (mostly because the media that reports it reports it WRONG EVERY GODDAMN TIME).


Anyway, as for MoE, or confidence intervals, they represent your confidence that the true value falls in between the mean value + or - some function of the standard deviation (variability) of the data.

Most polls, if not all these days, are conducted with 95% confidence intervals, meaning that you can say, with 95% assurance that you are correct, the two values (in this case, poll readings for candidate 1 and candidate 2 are correct.

Now in this case, the error bars for the MOE overlap, so we don't have 95% confidence (or greater) that the two values are different. But we may well have 90% confidence that they are different. And we most certainly have 60% confidence they are different (it depends on the size of the sample). If there is a lead of ANY SIZE AT ALL, it is more likely than not that the lead is real. The size of the lead only increases your confidence that it is real.
This is why I say there is *no such thing as a statistical tie*. There just isn't. Either it's exactly tied or it's not.

The real thing one has to take care of here are outliers. There is a 1/25 chance that a given poll (with 95% confidence) will show a reverse ordering of the true results (as implemented in the population). The media also fail to understand the nature of outliers in their data. Aberrant polls are not reported as aberrant, they are reported as "reversals of fortune."

It really is hard when you butter your bread with this kind of stuff, to watch how bad the media is, and how badly they misinform the public.

[DangerDave921]

20. Thanks

And yes, I did take offense at the all-caps. LOL. But no harm.

I will retract my earlier comment. But I still maintain that a one-point lead in a poll is essentially meaningless, especially at this stage of the game. I don't believe it's predictive of outcome.

Thanks again

[Dover]

5. I'm curious. Does anyone actually BELIEVE that these candidates are neck and neck?..n/t

[Teaser]

8. I've explained the reason for this a hundred times

Gallup and Rasmussen reweight their samples so that *EVERY DAY* the partisan identification comprises some fixed proprtion of the electorate.


But, in reality, that number fluctuates with the public mood. Polls that don't reweight (the national polls that come out intermittently) don't show this.

[pipi_k]

14. Public mood?

All I can say is, the public needs to be on some serious meds if its mood is going to change so drastically from day to day.

Seriously

This stuff makes the American public look like a bunch of hormonal teenaged girls

:eyes:

[goclark]

19. They plan it that way so the fix can stand up

There is no way this should/could be.

America is not that stupid or racist.

I will not believe that at all.

[bluestateguy]

6. Whew

That's one day reprieve.

If Bush 44 had ticked up a point to a 1 point lead, we would not have heard the end of it from his corporate media pals.

[darius15]

9. I think McCain's advertisements

have turned off some independents.

[aaroh]

11. The scary part:

Obama leads McCain in California by over 20 points and California makes up 1/8th of the national poll. So me thinks Obama is behind if you exclude california.

[geek tragedy]

15. Well, not if you then consider that McCain is up by 20-30%

in Oklahoma, Idaho, Utah, Kansas, Tennessee, Kentucky, Tennessee, and Texas.

[Beetwasher]

22. That's The Dumbest Thing I Ever Heard

n/t

[Alter Ego]

12. Bouncing back, maybe?

If Obama's floor is 44% but McCain's ceiling is 44% I can guarantee you that does NOT look good for Gramps' GE prospects.

[pipi_k]

13. I looked at the link but

there wasn't any information on what the questions were that led to those numbers...not that I could see, anyway.

For all we know, the question could have been, "Which candidate is a better dancer?"


Aren't poll numbers pretty much meaningless unless we know what the questions were?

[Beetwasher]

21. McCain's UNMOVABLE, INDISPUTABLE CEILING

44%

He's got a real serious problem.