Insider Advantage: Virginia: Obama: 43% McCain: 43%

[book_worm]

It's not a very big survey I don't think only 416 people with a plus/minus of 5%

http://www.southernpoliticalreport.com/story.aspx?sid=518


InsiderAdvantage/Poll Position Survey Virginia: McCain and Obama tied with 43% each

Compiled from InsiderAdvantage and Southern Political Report staff


August 13, 2008 —


An InsiderAdvantage/Poll Position survey conducted for the Southern Political Report and its continuing pre-convention poll of potentially competitive presidential races in the South shows John McCain and Barack Obama in a dead-heat in Virginia. The telephone survey of 416 registered likely voters, conducted August 12, is weighted for age, race, gender, and political affiliation. It has a margin of error of +/- 5%.


Q. If the election were held today would you vote for…

John McCain: 43%

Barack Obama: 43%

Other: 9%*

Undecided: 5%


* (Neither Bob Barr or Ralph Nader were placed in the survey. As of the time of the survey, neither candidate had qualified for the ballot in November)


InsiderAdvantage’s Matt Towery: “Obama is doing well among independents and females. I must admit that the typical age patterns we have seen in all of our recent surveys did not hold in this one. For example, the youngest vote, although a small sample, went to McCain, but the 65 and over vote went to McCain by a lower percentage than in our surveys of other states.

"Regardless, the secret to Obama’s ability to make Virginia a close race can be found in his ability to attract 40% of the white vote. While Virginia’s black vote will likely be less than states such as Georgia or North Carolina, it is substantial enough that, when combined with such a strong showing among whites, it falls into the 'recipe' we see as necessary for Obama to win Southern states that have voted Republican in recent years. And, as I’ve noted many times, polls this far out always give the Republican candidate a higher percentage of the African-American vote than they ultimately receive. This will make the votes of those who

[darius15]

1. VA will be the closest state in November

at this rate anyway. But things can change

[democrattotheend]

2. Kerry only got 32% of the white vote

If Obama needs 40% of the white vote that is going to be tough. I would say it was impossible but he won the white vote in the Virginia primary...how I still can't figure out.

[darius15]

3. Probably the DC Suburbs, which are...

pretty much white, but the whites are generally liberal and rich. Both are Obama strength's.

[democrattotheend]

4. I live in the DC suburbs

And I went canvassing in Arlington a few weeks ago. It was about 2:1 Obama, which is on par with what Kerry got. But he needs to do even better to win the state...Kerry lost by 8 points.

[ChimpersMcSmirkers]

5. Gonna be a sqeaker...