SBVT consulting with Bush lawyer! Zogby polls prove ads worked (OH, WV)

[TruthIsAll]

The ads ran in OH, WV, WI. Just look at the Zogby poll numbers and compare to the other states.

http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/

Is it just a coincidence that Kerry is trailing by 5 in OH and 7 in WV but is doing extremely well in almost all the states Zogby just polled?

Here is a breaking news article on the SBVT consulting with a Bush lawyer.

http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000087&sid=a...

snip

The Swift boat group ran ads earlier this month in Ohio, Wisconsin and West Virginia saying Kerry didn't deserve the three Purple Hearts for being wounded and the Silver and Bronze Stars for valor awarded to him by the U.S. Navy for his service in Vietnam. They cite their own recollections of events to dispute Navy records from the time the medals were approved 35 years ago.

snip

The Swift Boat Veterans group is spending $1.1 million on ads attacking Kerry. Of that, $550,000 was spent on the spots that ran earlier this month in Ohio, Wisconsin and West Virginia, said spokesman Sean McCabe.

more

[Feanorcurufinwe]

1. That would mean that the actual airing of the ads

was orders of magnitude more effective than the nonstop news coverage.

Which would indicate the Kerry counter-ads really need to be aired there as well... but I didn't think they wer doing WI

[joanne]

3. Kerry has big electoral college lead

He's running neck and neck with Chimpy in Arkansas, Tennessee and Virginia.

This will force the Chimpy to spend time and money in areas he should have locked up weeks ago.

:)

[redstateblues]

18. That Ad Might As Well Have Run In TN- It was played incessantly

on the news shows. Over and Over and Over- Kerry leads in TN.

[tritsofme]

2. Zogby Interactive polls prove that John Zogby can email some

political junkies and get the results that he wants.

That's it.

[TruthIsAll]

4. What are your bona fides to criticize Zogby?

That is a ridiculous, snide comment.

He has the best track record of anyone around.

He was right in 2002 but Diebold stole the senate for Bush.

[tritsofme]

8. I've got nothing against his regular telephone polls,

And I think he has quite a bit of credibility in that regard.

These internet polls are utterly worthless, they are not scientific, and he doesn't even pretend they are.

[Feanorcurufinwe]

9. Isnt this about the results of telephone polls?

[tritsofme]

11. I'm almost positive this whole batch

is from Interactive polls.

[aquart]

5. He emails ME.

And I'm not the only DUer. Buzzflash put out a call for us to sign up with Zogby a few years ago.

[tritsofme]

12. That's exactly my point

We are not an accurate subsection of likely voters, and neither are the freepers who do these polls on the other side.

[MidwestTransplant]

6. Most of the polls aren't internet polls but ones he does

though phone calls. Look at the last set and you will see that they are based on interviews.

[obiwan]

7. Zogby

Tritsofme: I am one of those Zogby "political junkies" and I can assure you that I am most definitely a DEMOCRAT.

Zogby has a proven track record in presidential campaigns.

Here in California Chimpy is behind by 16 points. This is how it should be.

The Swift Boat ads, and now these and other direct links show definite administration collaboration with this 527 group.

[Democat]

10. Could it be that there is a backlash against the ads in other states?

Is it possible that the ads are working for Bush in some states and hurting him in other states because of a backlash?

If Kerry's EC numbers are really up, even though he's down in some specific states, could the net effect of the ads be negative for Bush?

I guess we would need state-by-state polling on the ads to try to really figure out what's going on. I bet the Bush campaign is doing just such polling and if it looks bad, they will likely stop the ads. If it looks good for them, expect to see an expansion of the ads into other key states.

Anyone have opinions on whether the ads and the controversy are really making a difference at this point?

Has anyone recently done Swift Liars specific polls?

[NewYorkerfromMass]

15. No. People are the same everywhere. The ads work

if they are uncountered. People are always looking for a reason to mistrust someone.
Kerry needs to AND IS aggressively countering now.

[DeepModem Mom]

13. SOMETHING happened in Ohio and West Va. -- and SBVT is the only issue --

n/t

[yellowcanine]

23. And Zogby is the ONLY poll showing that. Wait for others. Most polls

show Ohio and WV to be tossups leaning one way or the other depending on the poll. Both have been trending toward Kerry but only slightly - WV a little more than Ohio. My feeling is that for one reason or another Kerry got a bigger convention bounce in Ohio and WV and it has settled some now - I still think WV will be in the Kerry column in November and Ohio is probable for Kerry but more iffy.

[mzmolly]

14. Could this strengthen the case for a libel or slander suit?

:shrug:

And, can we sue their asses for lying?

[AmerDem]

16. You're wrong in my opinion.

That ad has been played more across the country on cable news then the buys by the liars. Don't go getting all bent out of shape because 1 poll shows numbers that aren't to your liking.

BTW, aren't you the one who is always posting those statistical chartings that show Kerry with a 95% win probability? If so :wtf:


Alot of you have to stop the doom and gloom rhetoric it isn't beneficial and it zaps energy that could otherwise be focused on Kerry's campaign and defeating shrub.

[TruthIsAll]

28. Here is a quick Probability/Stat 101 course outline for you.

Sampling Error of the mean
Standard deviation
Central Limit Theorem
Normal Distribution
Margin of Error
Confidence limits
Chebyshev's theorem

Then I suggest you calculate the probability of a Kerry win assuming that in an unbiased nationwide poll with 1000 sample size:

Kerry 520 (52%)
Bush 480 (48%)

Poll MoE is 3.0%

What is the probability Kerry will get over 50% of the national vote?

Hint: Here is the Excel formula to calculate the probability:
Prob1 = NormDist(.52,.50,.03/1.96, True)
Tell me what you get.

Then do the same calculation assuming 15 polls (or 15000 sample size)
with the same Kerry lead (average). Here the MoE = 0.80%, so
Prob2 = NormDist(.52,.50,.008/1.96, True)

If you pass the test, I'll show you how to compute the probability of a Kerry win (270 EV) using Monte Carlo simulation, with state poll win probabilities used for 1000 trial election runs. How many trials out of 1000 does Kerry win? That is his win probability.

Next time.

End of lesson 1 for your free Prob 101 course.

[NewYorkerfromMass]

17. Question: Did they really target OH, WV, and WI?

And if so they must have consulted with someone who had knowledge of which swing states to target.
Who has access to that kind of poll info. and strategy?

[59millionmorons]

19. It's a interactive poll

Not even reliable. Why did you ignor the last Gallup poll from ohio were kerry is up 10?

[Leilani]

20. I have seen several polls in West Va

& they have been all over the place.

Kerry needs to go there, & campaign with Robert Byrd. Byrd has said he can carry WV, & he knows.

[Zynx]

24. What's with WV polls? They are all over the place.

I've not seen one consistent result yet from WV.

[59millionmorons]

21. The facts don't help your title.

-The last Zogby poll had Bush up 5 in OH and this one has him up 5.6=No change

-The last 4-5 Zogby polls has Bush up in WV=no change

-Kerry actually increases his lead since the last poll from being up 1 to being up now by 4.


http://realclearpolitics.com/Presidential_04/oh_polls.html

[pmbryant]

25. Yep. Those are the key facts.

Zogby's own polls have shown little change in those states over the last 2-3 months.

Polls by other organizations show Kerry closer or ahead in those states.

I haven't seen any evidence for any dramatic change.

Peter

[yellowcanine]

22. Too early to tell if the "ads worked", imo - Doubtful if the ads switched

anybody - they may have pushed some leaners one way or the other - my guess is they were a wash for the moment - BUT there is a big backlash potential as more discrepancies come out about the swifties - then Kerry definately benefits. I also don't think the ads slamming Kerry for antiwar activity will have much effect - particularly among Nam vets. Nam vets already know about that and have made up their mind about it long ago.

[Philostopher]

26. In Ohio, I think it's still the 'echo chamber'

And I'll tell you something else -- they bought smart when they bought those ads. *Purely anecdotal testimony and armchair theorizing follows*

They bought them during pre-season football and other sports broadcasts, when a lot of (some of them former military) white guys in their twenties through fifties were watching. There were a lot of African American guys watching the sporting events, too, but I'm guessing -- purely off the top of my head -- that if they're going to vote, they're probably not undecided. Which is to say, African Americans who vote usually vote for Dems. Voting for Republicans, for them, is something they make up their minds to do -- they're not 'undecided' about voting for a Republican, if they're going to do it.

The ads ran three to four times an hour, every hour the exhibition football games were on. Even if you didn't believe the vets, you saw them over and over. I've said before, and I'll say it again -- it's that 'where there's smoke, there's fire' bullshit, didn't Dole say exactly that the other day? 'If there's a bunch of guys saying this, even if it's not true there must be something to it?' That, in a nutshell, was exactly what the SwiftLiars were supposed to accomplish. It's classic Republican strategy -- lie, but repeat it frequently so that it becomes a received truth.

Edit -- by 'echo chamber' I meant to say that AM radio is all hate shows, and most of these guys (and women, I guess) listen to them in the car. All you're going to hear on AM radio in Ohio, for the next few months, is what a baby-eating commie John Kerry is. Again, eventually it becomes 'received truth.' I don't know if there's anything he can do to get Ohio back -- the Republicans are so well entrenched here, and it's so frequently reinforced, they're pretty stubborn.

[lancdem]

27. Zogby has shown some weird swings in W.Va. before

and Bush had a lead in Ohio in the previous Zogby poll, so that budged little. And his lead went up in Wisconsin.