Obama/Biden will beat McCain/Romney by 4-5% (which is a lot)

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

(Originally posted July 09, hence the few outdated references like the FISA vote)

Obama/Biden will beat McCain/Romney by 4-5% (which is a lot)

Some thoughts/predictions:

Biden will get the VP nod because he's 1) paternal, 2) Catholic, 3) a great attack dog, 4) Catholic, 5) credible on foreign relations, and 7) Catholic

(If Clinton was ever in the veep-stakes, she's certainly out after today's FISA vote, which must have left the Obama camp steaming.)

Romney is all but a forced move because Michigan is this years Florida/Ohio, and Romney can at least pretend talk about the economy a little, unlike McCain.

There will be times between now and election day when Obama is distinctly ahead (like right now) and times McCain is distinctly ahead (probably sometime on September), but it's hard to see how McCain can cross the finish line.

The election will end up being a malaise election with lots of dissatisfaction over the choices. That means a base election, and that is very good for Democrats everywhere. The Dem-Pug base enthusiasm-gap is immense.

Third party and protest votes might end up being 7-9 percent nationally, but essentially irrelevant except in a handful of states.

Probably not a 1980 style landslide. I see it as more like Clinton/Dole in 1996. A few points difference in the popular vote, but a quite comfortable Dem electoral college win. Senate +4-5. House + a few.

[Thrill]

1. I can't believe they would pick Romeny. He fits perfectly with the out of touch meme

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

5. For some reason the pug mainstream base likes him

He may have trouble with the religious right but an amazing number of other pugs swear by the guy.

He's Reaganesque... a good looking amoral bubble-head

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

6. .

[gateley]

2. I like your prediction! nt

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

3. I am gloating too soon. (I fear Sebelius.) But it was a pretty solid post in retrospect

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

4. If my first primary choice ends up as VP, I can't kick.

[StevieM]

7. Clinton beat Dole by 8 1/2 points in '96. (eom)