Some thoughts on this Presidential Election

[the_real_38]

I've been objectively watching this election unfold, as I lost any real enthusiasm for Obama after his 'move to the center' once he gained the nomination. But as I don't agree with anything that comes out of John Mccain's mouth, I'll be voting for the Democratic Nominee (or Cynthia McKinney if I'm drunk). This is how I see things stacking up:

->McCain has the momentum. His handlers grasp some important truths about American presidential politics that (I think) have flown past the Obama campaign. These truths are:

(1) Presidential elections are often charged by topical, stupid and tangential 'issues' (e.g. Dukakis/'Willie Horton', Bush I/'never saw a checkout scanner', Gore/'Invented the Internet', Kerry/'Windsurfing, Swift Boats'). McCain gained the momentum by exploiting such a niche - the 'Celebrity' ads were ingenious, as the GOP turned the media's fawning coverage of the presumed electee (Obama) against him. Americans are reflexively suspicious of the media, especially if they're supporting a Democrat (for some damn reason).

(2) Perception is stronger than reality. For example, McCain has somehow gained the initiative on Energy policy, despite the fact that he wants the same dumb-ass 'free market' solutions Bush has blindly pushed forward. He's been advancing domestic drilling and Nuclear Energy (which I support), though both will be problematic to implement, and neither will provide the short-term relief he implies. The U.S. needs massive subsidies and some type of New Deal project, to build a new energy and transportaion infrastructure. Such a plan would have to be a much broader one than Obama has proposed, but at least he's on the right track. However, take a look at the first line of this paragraph.

(3) Get your boy On Message - I was stunned at how well McCain's old, generally bumbling ass came off at the Saddleback tent meetin'. He wants it. For a while, they couldn't keep him on the chain. He just shot his mouth off about whatever came to his mind. But he was clearly (ahem) prepared for this forum - McCain's handlers have been polishing his hustle. He's going to be tough in the debates: that's how he fought back to win the GOP nomination. Obama is not so good in debates - he's a lot better at giving speeches than answering questions. Again, Saddleback is a telling example. We on the left are used to the thoughtful,reasoned, 'discursive' style of speech, but it don't play so well in Peoria. Obama needs to lose the Senatorial stammer and start ripping out some sound bites. It ain't right, but it's the way things are in this game.

Keys to an obama victory:
(1) Message - has to be strong, positive, and more concrete than 'hope and change'. And the bumper-sticker mentality can be derided but not dismissed.
(2) Voter turnout - big Democratic trend in new registrations, party-switching. Money is well-spent here. The drive has been exceptionally successful in North Carolina, the only Southern state Obama has a shot at winning - an upset there would really but McCain in a tight spot.
(3) VP - Biden provides some balance, esp. on foreign policy, but he's not particularly inspiring or energetic. On the other hand, his acerbic wit may help create some 'bumper sticker' moments that could help the ticket.
(4) The conventions. Obama needs to deliver the goods in front of a national audience. This is his forte, but he needs to really dig deep here. Hopefully, no incidents will distract the public. This whole election really comes down to the level of public skepticism about Obama. That and the Bradley Effect (white voters tell pollsters they're going to vote for the black candidate, then don't). It is absolutely imperative that the Democratic Convention serve as the turning point, where BO builds a big lead, like Clinton did in '92. I believe that can happen.
Don't forget the other convention. Incredibly, the Republicans have consented to allow Bush and Darth Cheney to speak. This can only serve to remind America what a miserable failure this administration has been. It's hard to blame McCain for this economy, but it's really easy to point your index finger at Bush. Hopefully, the middle one will follow in McCain's direction. And McCain is better at answering questions than giving speeches. His big turn on-stage could be the Ambien Moment of the year. We have to hope that the contrast with Obama will be obvious enough.
(5) The debates. Goes back to (1) message, and some rehearsal time. Needs to find some ways to throw McCain off-balance.
(6) The key states. The playoffs are 3 out of 5 - Michigan/Colorado/Florida/Ohio/Virginia. Truth be known, McCain is probably not going to take any of the states that Kerry won in '04, which means he has to take all the states that Bush did. That's going to be extremely difficult on the heels of Bush's failures.
(7) The TV ads - same old ju-jitsu. Parry and thrust. Play hardball. Leave this to the pros.

[WritingIsMyReligion]

1. "Biden provides some balance, esp. on foreign policy, but he's not particularly inspiring or

engergetic ."

You must have had your head in the sand for the past hour now. Joe Biden just gave a loud and rousing speech.

:shrug: