Pollsters are underestimating the AA vote!

[darius15]

I've noticed that pollsters always mess up the AA vote. Today, an NV poll showed McCain up 1, but it showed blacks voting McCain 73-26. An OH poll showed McCain up, but Obama only won AA's 48-23 with 29 undecided.

Now, mind you, NV and OH don't have an exceedingly large AA population,but it does make a small difference there.

Where it makes a HUGE difference is in states like VA or NC. I've seen VA polls that are tight but show Obama getting 80% of AA's. I can safely say a minimum of 93% of them will vote Obama and VA has a large AA population. Same with NC (although that's more of a longshot).

I wonder if this happens in national tracking polls?? Gallup & Rasmussen don't release crosstabs, but if they have McCain getting 10-20% of blacks like most state polls, they are wrong. I think if this continues, we will get pleasant suprises in a few states like VA or NC.

Agree\disagree?

[DemzRock]

1. Only if most of said votes are counted, unfortunately. n/t

[GreenPartyVoter]

2. And only if said voters weren't stricken from the rolls or bullied into not voting

:mad:

[AspenRose]

3. Not if they're disenfranchised.

Ditto for the hispanic, youth/college age kids and the military vote.

[kayell]

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The pukes want us to feel helpless. We aren't. Fight to win.

[samuraiguppy]

4. hell yeah

AAs are going to turn out in record numbers and we are going to vote for the next president of the united states Barack Obama.

[knixphan]

16. damn straight.

[tekisui]

5. I have been looking at VA and NC, with the exact thing in mind.

In NC, Obama has to get just 37% of the White vote to win it.

In VA, Obama needs 41% of the White vote.

[darius15]

6. How much did you project the black vote to be in those 2 states?

[tekisui]

8. I used 2004 turnout numbers

and current polling of the black vote for Obama for each of those states.


Currently, the black vote in NC is polling at 93% Obama.

Va is at 89%. Of course nation wide Obama is around 93-97% for the black vote.

[darius15]

11. In NC 2004 AA's were 26%, right?

what were the numbers in VA?

[tekisui]

12. 21-VA

26-NC

[jberryhill]

7. I didn't realize Alcoholics Anonymous was all that political....

But that's a fascinating subject line you have there.

So "they" are going to win "us" the election, eh?

I was thinking "we all" are going to win "us" the election.

[darius15]

9. Lol okay so the title was overexaggerated...

but what I mean is if on Election Day Obama and McCain are tied, the AA vote that pollsters aren't polling correctly is going to show up in some key states, which, in theory will give us the election.

But yes, we all need to work hard and do our part to win.

[jberryhill]

25. Can you explain why the "AA vote" is not "us"?

I don't know if this is going to come as a surprise to you or not, but neither DU nor the Democratic Party is a "whites only" organization, so I remain puzzled by just whom you mean by "us" in your postings.

[kayell]

27. I think the "us" refered to is the Democratic Party

[onefreespiritedchick]

15. I caught that too n/t

[cyndensco]

18. Thanks for pointing that out.

The subject line gave me the willies when I first read it. It felt like, once again, our votes are being marginalized. The others have been complaining that 90% of us are blindly voting for Obama because we're racist. Here, with this subject line, we are going to win it for you. :eyes:

[darius15]

21. Sorry, I didn't mean it like that. I changed the title.

[cyndensco]

23. Thank you. Much better.

:hi:

[PlanetBev]

10. Does anybody know what percentage of whites say they won't vote for an AA?

Ten-fifteen percent? It's so hard to believe these people still exist in 2008. Sad.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

13. "but Obama only won AA's 48-23 with 29 undecided."

Those numbers were transposed with the Latino numbers

[JerseygirlCT]

14. I don't know enough about this -

how are people selected? How are they counted? Are AAs being missed, much like younger people w/o landlines?

I agree - a majority of African Americans going for McCain sounds flat-out wrong.

OTOH, I don't want to relax, either. GOTV is still going to be critical!

[barack the house]

17. All african americans have to do is stay motivated sign up non minorities 18-35 and that should do>

it. This now comes down to African Americans to save america and I believe they can do it as long as they stay enthusiasitic and ignore polls. NOt to say other groups won't help but they are the loyal base you see. The main thing is all involved whatever democgraphic stay inspirational.

[BumRushDaShow]

19. Doug Wilder won as governor in VA by a squeaker...

And that was in 1990. But since then, the state has become a bit bluer (particularly parts of NoVA, as a 'burb of D.C.), so that's why I keep crossing fingers for Obama to squeak by in VA if there's is a real GOTV effort.

[bermudat]

20. Alcoholics Anonymous?

[cabbage08]

28. African Americans

[WI_DEM]

22. Ohio has a pretty good AA population, centered around the big cities

[ClarkUSA]

24. What we do know is that the more voters we, Obama's grassroots, register, the better his chances are

Go here if you want to do more to help elect President Obama and Vice President Biden: http://my.barackobama.com/page/content/actioncenter

[brooklynite]

29. Pollsters always fight the last war...

They're not rigging the results, but they are largely basing their survey weighting on who came out to vote in the last election. The Obama voter registration efforts will turn these results on their ear if they can get the new voters to turn out.

[Kahuna]

30. Unfortunately, with Palin in the race, they're likely underestimating

female voter turnout and "values" voter turnout too.

[JCMach1]

31. Probably offset by the outright racist vote...

that is underpolled...

That puts us back at square one... Meaning polls will be curiousities for most of this election cycle.