How much will the Dow drop tomorrow? Any predictions?

[Quixote1818]

I have a really bad feeling about tomorrow. What will you do with your stocks tomorrow morning?

[FrenchieCat]

1. Oooh shit......

As an Accountant, I don't even want to envision the faces on my clients.

:hide:

[MrModerate]

2. 600 points. What the heck do I know? But that sounds about right.

I'm not going to look. All my retirement is tied up in a variety of 401Ks and I can't touch it anyway. I'll ride it out and hope things are better 10 years from now when I need them.

[yellowdogintexas]

33. same here except not quite 10 years for me. Irony of all things, I inherited 75

shares if AIG from my aunt. I do hope that stupid company doesn't totally die. I didn't redeem the shares because I didn't want to pay taxes on it you see.

[MercutioATC]

3. Around 350 points.

The Lehman bankruptcy will be balanced by the Merrill Lynch sale.

[Newsjock]

4. Perhaps nothing at all!

Never 'misunderestimate' the power of the Plunge Protection Team. We could open down 400 and end the day pretty darn near unchanged, if they print enough billions to flood the market.

[southerncrone]

5. I'll wager 800 pts, Alex.

[Parker CA]

37. I'll say if it doesn't tank 700-800 tomorrow, it will only be 100-200 with a huge drop later week.

[southerncrone]

68. Agree. Mya not happen overnight, but net results may be bigger.

[FrenchieCat]

6. Did you see this.....?

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x7071293

[vaberella]

10. Yuppers. I'm not surprised. It's a mess.

I'm only glad my banks are upping up the funds, because that makes me feel a bit more safe of where my money is being held.

[BlooInBloo]

7. I wonder if they'll be forced to put the brakes on trading.

[vaberella]

8. It's iffy..Merril Lynch is saving the bloody market b/c of the BOA buyout.

And I'm sure Bernanke/Paulson have a surprise bank that will have gains...imagine if it's WaMu?! That will raise investments. I think initially below 400+ (not more than 600) and by the end of the taper out to around 100+ points below.

[swag]

9. My wild-assed guess. Drop around 400 points at the worst and close 200 down.

[elfin]

19. First thing I thought as well -- we shall see nt

[MichDem10]

11. -453

[vaberella]

15. Nice number...bordering 565 as the max--then tapering up. n/t

[abumbyanyothername]

12. Right now S&P futures are down 3-4%

I definitely would not sell at open, but beyond that . . .

I am not buying any stocks for quite a while. I am rethinking my whole retirement savings strategy.

I don't really see any safe harbor other than farmland (and ammunition, but I am not a gun owner any way).

In the end, our society is going to be radically restructured.

[gristy]

13. Asia is mostly down, some by more than 4% (yikes), though not a complete disaster

http://finance.yahoo.com/intlindices?e=asia

[vaberella]

17. check out Bloomberg.com. Asia is doing fantastic...although down from their nearly 200+

It's still very high up there.

http://www.bloomberg.com/index.html?Intro=intro3

[PM7nj]

65. .

[alcibiades_mystery]

14. Dow will be even tomorrow.

Big drop at open, followed by recovery in the afternoon.

[progressivebydesign]

59. I posted the same thing, only opposite way to get there.

I was thinking that the bargain hunters will start out strong in the morning, but things will head back down in the afternoon as things settle -- leaving it even.

[truthisfreedom]

16. Not more than 1600 points before they "circuit-break" the fall by halting trading.

[flamingdem]

18. -331 now, open lower, gap up on some "good news" kill the shorts

end down -243

down again on Tuesday


Fed rate cut or some other manufactured news

ends the week -150

[vaberella]

20. That seems right. Actually might end a bit higher by the end of the week. n/t

[flamingdem]

21. The markets have their own mind, and the insiders control it, but not all of it

It's good to think the opposite of the herd or risk the perversity of the market/global casino.


At least this is forcing change, and to the market that is good since it prices things six months out.

[vaberella]

27. FlamingDem I have a question for you..

I agree with your statement by the way. What's your thoughts on investing in Gold and Silver currently? Or should I wait. We can take this to PMs as well.

[flamingdem]

39. I think it is premature to do that

Gold bugs will try to sell you the idea that everything will fall apart and gold is the safe haven. Gold
is not that much safer than cash because if something drastic happens you can't eat gold!

The old idea of gold as a balance in your portfolio is a bit discredited. All the old correlations are changing.
In the end it's probably smartest to believe that things will improve and to stay steady with your investments.
One key thing to know is that you can miss out on the best days of the market if you are out of the market.

Coming out of a Bear Market you might get days with 7% increases and this can represent half of the years increase
and if you are out... well it's tough to time the market.

But at this point money market fundds are attractive when the world is unwinding so much from the credit and housing
mess. I think it's time to be 50/50 but I am not an expert in this ... just want to sleep at night!

Essentially I am an optimist .. I think Obama will win and the world will reward us with a investments.

[abumbyanyothername]

25. I can't predict shortterm

but last year, August 14, 2007, I went to my regular noon luncheon group and I was asked to do a 5 minute presentation (extemp, any topic). I said then that I rated the chance of a collapse of the entire banking system at >15%.

The odds have gone up.

Last October, I have an email in my sent file asking the question, appropos of nothing, except that Bear Stearns was a banker to a client (who was also a bank) and giving us a hard time, "Can anyone explain to me how Bear is even still solvent?"

Last February I began telling the story of how Fannie and Freddie were levered 100 to 1 and could not possibly survive the housing drop. Later, around June, I added that if the USGOV stepped in to back up FNMA and FHLMC, it would itself go bk, or at least lose its AAA credit rating.

Folks, our economy going back to the mid-50s is built on a foundation set in quicksand, or on an earthquake fault. It is not possible to sustain an economy based on growth and expansion -- by definition. It is only possible to sustain an economy that is in equilibrium.

Capitalism has been based in growth since its inception in the 14th and 15th centuries (or later if you like) and in fact was one of the engines that fueled European expansionism. We are, however, witnesses the end game of expansionist economic theory and it will now be necessary to develop and adopt a model that calls for sustainability and, one would hope, emphasizes present tense quality of life over endless anxiety about the future.

[Oak2004]

30. Yep, on the patent absurdity of endless expansionism

In another post I rattled off a long list of specifics as to "how we got to this", most of which date from circa 1980, but concluded with this very point. Eternal expansion defies every law of physics, yet is embedded so firmly in mainstream economics few economists can fathom that there's anything all that wrong with the ship they've been piloting around a sandbar and into the rocks.

[flamingdem]

22. Ut oh. Pre market still says -331 no movement for an hour... is it halted

Now that would make me nervous, but it's probably not -- people are asleep, right?

[vaberella]

26. No that can't be the case something is wrong. Asia never stays at 112.26 this long. n/t

[shugah]

23. 430

and then it will rally, closing about 200 down.

haven't you figured out this game yet?

[Forkboy]

24. I'm so poor the only stocks I know are the ones I want to see Bush in.

[Neshanic]

28. PPT in full force. Reagan will be exhumed. End of day -97.

[1corona4u]

29. I own mostly tech stocks...so I will do nothing....

I'd guess somewhere in the low 4's for a drop tomorrow....

[CK_John]

31. Close at 11,100. n/t

[norepubsin08]

32. 452.68 points

what do I get if I win? Do I get to be Secretary of the Treasury?

[Kalyke]

52. I don't know.

Did you come in second in a beauty contest?

If you did, you're even qualified to be VP!! :)

[norepubsin08]

54. I was just kidding about

the prediction..just sort of picked that number out of my ass...kinda like Bush does with everything else.

[Oak2004]

34. It seems to me that every effort to prop this crumbling facade up

merely postpones the inevitable, and will make the final shock, whenever it comes, that much worse.

If I were head of the Fed, or one of the key insiders, I'd be trying to deflate the market as gently as is possible under the circumstances, not prop up stock values.

But hey, what do I know? I'm just someone who has been watching this catastrophe slowly take shape over the years, with the astonishment and horror one might feel if one were watching someone cock a pistol, aim it at their own head, and slowly squeeze the trigger. I mean, compared to a genius like Greenspan, what would I know? :sarcasm:

[Eurobabe]

35. way down on open, -250, and then rebound to close

within 25 pts. by 4pm. :shrug:

[trashcanistanista]

36. If it goes down 500

I think they will halt trading. It won't go below that in one day.

[WheelWalker]

38. 451 (Fahrenheit)

:nuke:

[nadinbrzezinski]

40. Futures are already over 300

so it could be ... bad, I will not be shocked or surprised if they stop trading

[Golden Raisin]

41. Whatever it is it will, of course, be

"the Democrats' fault". :sarcasm:

We all know that Repubicans are "the party of fiscal responsibilty" and an economic meltdown/implosion could never, ever happen on their watch. :sarcasm:

[WinkyDink]

42. I'm doing nothing with my investments (with Smith-Barney, formerly Legg Mason).

What's to do? Where's to go?

[curious one]

43. My prediction is +300 pts. Also Dow will reach around 9,000 bottom before it starts the recovery.

[harun]

44. It will drop until the breakers kick in, they will halt computer trading

It will slow things down and not be catastrophic. So it will probably go down 500-600 pts then bounce back up to down 200-300 for the day.

[MercutioATC]

46. You do realize that the first breaker trips at a 10% loss? That'd be an 1140-point drop.

I don't think we're going to get anywhere near that.

[harun]

50. I was referring to the program trading

Which after checking Wikipedia I see they they don't have that curb anymore.

[MercutioATC]

51. Yeah, they got rid of the smaller curbs.

In a way, it's probably good. The market is allowed to correct itself until things get really out of hand.

[rug]

45. 3,000.

[RollWithIt]

47. 4.5% or a little over 500....

If the US market follows Europe's lead.

[alcibiades_mystery]

62. WINNER!!!

:-)

[RollWithIt]

67. Do I get a gold star for being so smart? lol

Not sure yet what happens tomorrow. Need to see the world markets open up later on.

[mwooldri]

48. UK FTSE down 4.4% so far today.

I believe the US markets are going to fare worse.

Mark.

[mwooldri]

61. Well the markets have closed...

... and it was as bad as London but I'm surprised it wasn't worse. Yes the Dow dropped more than 500 points and closed below 11,000... yes it is not a good day for stocks.

But something in me thinks things are going to get worse before they get better. I am no pundit. I have no stock dealing experience apart from picking a few funds for my 401k. Trust me, I'm no expert but I just have a bad feeling about this week in the stock market.

Mark.

[tucsonlib]

49. Hi, You Bunch of Whiners. I'm Phil Gramm.

You heard it from me first, and the absolute truth of it was confirmed just the other day by my good buddy Sean Hannity. Our economy has never been in better shape! It's your attitude that sucks. And if the Market should happen to implode today...well, it's just a temporary glitch. A direct result of Bill Clinton's failed economic policies. Don't you worry yore little heads. Me and Sean will be fine 'n' dandee.....

[bkcc]

53. This whole situation is terrible.

And, frankly, Obama needs to make an ad that talks about this, linking it to the failed Bush policies that McCain wants to continue. And he'd better include the quote from Greenspan stating that McCain's economic plan would be "disastrous".

[Quixote1818]

55. Kick. It has dropped 400 so far. nt

[aint_no_life_nowhere]

56. 455 now - this is getting a bit scary

[swag]

57. -504.48 at the moment. Close should settle out soon.

[progressivebydesign]

58. It won't drop. Bargain hunters will be shopping for stocks.

Or it will start out stronger in the am, then settle back to where it was early in the day. It will take a while for the market to regain today's loss.

Of course, many of us remember a time, not so long ago, when the stock market was not the indicator of the economy -- it was one aspect. The media dumbs things down so much for Americans that they believe the stock market is THE economy.

[RoadRage]

60. I'll say 150 points down.. it'll drop - but nothing like today.

Today was an over reaction.. the Leman Bros. bankruptcy hurt - but the fact that Merrill was bought was a good thing, and thus far no one else is going to have to file bannkruptcy this week (of the big guys). So tomorrow morning you might see another big sell off.. but in the afternoon the people who sold this morning will be out bargin hunting.

As for my own portfolio.. it's staying put. I don't need it for another 25 years.. i'll live through 10 more of these up & down cycles before I have to worry about cashing out.

[rove karl rove]

63. Dow will close up 80 for day

A mini-rally, but October will be a bull killer month.

[MrsCorleone]

64. FOMC meets tomorrow. Many are expecting a rate cut.

Assuming AIG & WAMU don't completely blow chunks tomorrow, coupled with a substantial rate cut (both fed funds & discount window over 25bps), I would expect a bounce. Reality has set in, though, so a rally will be short-lived, IMHO. Expect lots of bullshit rumors & volatility.

[JPZenger]

66. Remember McCain voted for social security diversion to investment banks

Remember that the McCain voted for the Repub Plan to hand over a large percentage of the Social Security funds to these bozos.

Put all of Grandma's food money on 23 Black - I feel lucky.
----
http://www.aflcio.org/issues/politics/mccain_retirement.cfm

"McCain Voted for Bush’s 2006 Social Security Privatization Plan. In 2006, McCain voted for the Social Security Reserve Fund. The proposal would shift Social Security’s annual surpluses into a reserve account that would be converted into risky private accounts.

In 2000 McCain Wanted to Divert Social Security Money to Private Accounts. The Wall Street Journal reported that “ centerpiece of a McCain presidential bid in 2000 was a plan to divert a portion of Social Security payroll taxes to fund private accounts, much as President Bush proposed unsuccessfully.” The plan would put workers’ retirement money into the risky market and reduce the amount of Social Security payments they would receive from the government. The plan would undermine the Social Security system.

McCain STILL Proposes Privatizing Social Security—Despite What His Website Says. McCain told the Wall Street Journal he still backs a system of private retirement accounts that he supported in 2000 and President Bush pushed unsuccessfully. The Journal reported he “disowned” details of a proposal on his 2008 campaign website that says he would “supplement” the existing Social Security system with personally managed accounts. But when asked about the position change he denied it and promised to change the website to reflect his true position. “I’m totally in favor of personal savings accounts… As part of Social Security reform, I believe that private savings accounts are a part of it—along the lines that President Bush proposed,” McCain told the Journal."

[AlinPA]

69. I'm guessing 750 down. AIG is in a bad news situation. nt