POLL: Democrats widen lead in battle for Congress -- open up 14 point lead on generic ballot (56-42)

[jefferson_dem]

Democrats widen lead in battle for Congress
Posted: 04:00 PM ET

From CNN Deputy Political Director Paul Steinhauser

WASHINGTON (CNN) – Call it the overlooked election. An intense battle is going on right now for control of Congress, but it's overshadowed in the media by a historic race for the White House.

So which party has the upper hand in the fight for Capitol Hill?

The answer, according to a new national poll, appears to be the Democrats. In a CNN/Opinion Research Corp. survey released Tuesday, 56 percent of those questioned are backing the Democratic candidate for Congress, while 42 percent support the Republicans.

That's a change from immediately after the GOP convention, when the Democrats had only a 3-point lead lead over the Republicans, 49 percent to 46 percent.

"The change may simply be due to the convention bounce fading for local Republicans," said CNN Polling Director Keating Holland. "We've seen evidence that the bounce for John McCain and Sarah Palin was not a permanent change in the horse race. Since the Dems have had a double-digit lead in the so-called 'generic ballot' question throughout the year, it's possible that the current numbers are just reverting back to normal levels for 2008."

The "generic ballot" question asked voters to choose between an unnamed Democratic candidate versus an unnamed Republican in the House race in their district. In reality, people vote for specific candidates in the 435 separate district elections for the House of Representatives.

The poll also indicates that most people don't think Congress is doing a good job at all. Only 22 percent approve of how Congress is handling its job, with 78 percent disapproving. The Democrats who currently control both houses of Congress fare better. Forty-four percent of those polled approve of how Democratic congressional leaders are doing their job, up 8 percentage points from July. Fifty-four percent of those polled disapprove.

The Democrats currently control 235 seats in the House to the Republicans 199, with one seat vacant. The Senate is split 49 to 49, with two independents. But both of those independent senators caucus with the Democrats, giving the party the majority in the Senate.

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http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2008/09/23/democrats-widen-lead-in-battle-for-congress/

[Viking12]

1. ..but we don'r have generic elections. So polls like this are stupid. eom

[DemocratSinceBirth]

4. I Disagree...It's A Good Tool , Albeit A Blunt One...

It gives you a good idea of the big picture...I assure you that if 56% of the voters on 11/4 are voting for Democratic congressmen and women the Republicants are going to be in for a long night...

[jefferson_dem]

5. So the fact that the Dem lead on the generic ballot increased from 3 points to 14 points

= stupid finding.

Ok.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

7. OxyRush Was Crowing

Oxyrush was crowing that contrary to conventional thinking the recent economic unpleasantness is not helping the out party...

The KKKonservatives are also making much of the study that suggests Obama's race might cost him for to six percentage points...Even if it's true which I doubt those numbers are already factored in to the current polls...

[Viking12]

8. Keep up

I didn't say stupid finding, I said stupid tool. Generic congressional polls tell us very little about what the actual make-up of the legislative body will be.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

10. Yes

But I assure you if there is a fourteen point gap on the eve of 11/3 there will lots of weeping and gnashing of teeth at the RNC...


Somebody probably has the exact numbers but I believe the gap in 94 and 06 was only five or six points and those elections dramatically changed the composition of both the House and Senate...

It's cost prohibitive to poll 568 House and Senate races; especially when 90% of them aren't even competitive...

[DemocratSinceBirth]

2. OxyRush Was Telling His Listeners It's Only Three Percentage Points

They are going to be as shocked as we were in 1994 and they were in 2006...

[AtomicKitten]

3. Here's to a filibuster-proof Democratic Congress!

:toast:

[mvd]

6. K&R

President Obama with a filibuster-proof Senate would rock. :kick:

[Jennicut]

9. We might pick up a new seat in the Senate with Hagan

That poll gives a good idea that the public is not pleased with Shrub's buddies in congress.

[optimisticin08]

11. will dole lose?

i hope so.