The Disappearing Bradley Effect

[central scrutinizer]

There's been lots of discussion regarding the polls and I must admit I am also a junkie for the latest numbers. Discussion here has talked a lot about the "cell phone" effect and the "new voter" effect. There is also the "front runner" effect. A fourth phenomenon that has gotten less attention is the "Bradley effect". This was named for Tom Bradley when he was running for California governor and the discrepancy between what polls were showing and what actually happened on election day. The hypothesis is that white voters will tell pollsters one thing because they don't want to be perceived as racist, but when it comes to actually putting their X by the name of black person, they can't do it. I have been worried about this every since Obama won the nomination and hoped that he would achieve a double digit lead. Good new info here, including a link to the article (pdf file) referenced:

http://election.princeton.edu/2008/09/26/the-disappearing-bradley-effect/#more-1277

Polls did show a significant Bradley/Wilder effect through the early 1990s, which includes the period when Bradley and Wilder were running for office. However, Hopkins notes that the effect then went away in races from 1996 onward. To quote the study: “Before 1996, the median gap for black candidates was 3.1 percentage points, while for subsequent years it was -0.3 percentage points.”

Hopkins doesn’t know why this is - the data are after all correlative. He speculates on possible reasons, such as de-emphasis on race identity and tension. But something has changed to remove the discrepancy between polls and voting. It could even be methodological: Pollsters could be training interviewers differently. Automated polling by robot interviewers could remove bias. We don’t know.

The paper contains other interesting conclusions - for instance, there is also no evidence for a gender effect (the “Whitman effect”). One variable that does affect poll accuracy is that support for front-runners is often overstated. This effect averaged 1.9 percentage points, and could account for some of what happened to Bradley and Wilder. This year, such an effect would favor John McCain.

All this is not to say that racism is dead, or that people don’t use race to decide who to vote for. These phenomena still exist. However, Hopkins’s study does suggest that when it comes to opinion poll accuracy, black candidates do not suffer a hidden disadvantage compared to white candidates. I’ll look forward to seeing the final article.

[izquierdista]

1. Aging

As older people raised with segregation die off and are replaced by younger people who went to integrated schools, the effect fades away. I was in elementary school when our school district desegregated (although it wasn't very segregated to begin with) and I notice a significant difference in talking to people older and younger than I. The older people, who knew of the segregated culture, seem to think of race as an important factor, while younger people seem to have a "so what" attitude, that race is just a feature, and not indicative of much.

[1corona4u]

2. I don't see the Bradley Effect happening...I really don't.

[RichGirl]

3. I'm wondering if there might be a reverse Bradley Effect.

Here in the south, racism is widely accepted and expected, especially in the rural areas. I think some people make remarks, support McCain in order to "fit in". You'd be shunned by the community if you put up an Obama yard sign. I wouldn't be surprised if in the privacy of the voting booth there aren't some who will pull the lever for Obama.

In a previous election I canvassed a neighborhood. I had four different people, all on the same street, tell me they were the ONLY democrat in the neighborhood.

[sufrommich]

4. That would be interesting. nt

[1corona4u]

6. I totally agree...

it'll be funny if all those red counties pony up for Obama, while everyone says they are voting for mccain, LOL....people will be looking at their neighbors, thinking; I wonder if he/she voted for Obama...

[1corona4u]

7. dupe

[Nicholas D Wolfwood]

9. That's what fivethirtyeight.com looked at, with evidence.

They found exactly what you're looking for.

[Berry Cool]

5. I'm wondering if there might not be a "Reverse Bradley Effect."

As in, in order to get along with their racist friends in their racist social circle, some voters might tell others "Well, of course I'm voting for McCain. What, like I'm gonna vote for a (insert epithet of choice here)??" But, once ensconced in the privacy of the voting booth where no one else can see what they do, they'll search their souls and pick the guy they deep-down-inside believe is the only one who can get a handle on things...Obama.

But they would sooner die than tell anyone...be that an exit poller, or their buddies at the bar.

A lot has been said about what people will do in the privacy of the booth when the pressure to be "politically correct" is off them. What some seem to be failing to recognize is that for some people, the pressure to discount and pooh-pooh others on the basis of race is a bigger social pressure that political correctness.

What will happen to THOSE people when they get into a voting booth? How many of them will find that their brains (because some of them DO have brains) and consciences (because some of them DO have consciences) dictate a different choice than their social milieu does? What will THEY do, if they know no one will ever know about it?

[RichGirl]

8. OMG...

You and I have a telepathic connection!!!!