10/4 ELECTION MODEL (TIA): Obama STATE aggregate projection(52.6%/354EV) lags NAT'L Avg (54.6%/? EV)

[tiptoe]

2008 ELECTION MODEL
A  Monte Carlo  Electoral  Vote  Simulation

TruthIsAll

Updated: October 4    8:58 PM

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Summary Aggregate Polls, Projections and Graphs

Sensitivity Analysis: Five Undecided Vote Scenarios

National and State Polls and Projections

Election Calculator Model

Aggregate State Polls and Projections
National Moving Average Trend
Electoral Vote and Win Probability
Electoral Vote and Vote Share
Sensitivity Analysis: Effects of Undecided Voters

Battleground States: Win Probabilities
Monte Carlo Simulation: Electoral Vote Frequency
Monte Carlo Simulation: 5000 Election Trials
Uncounted and Switched Votes: Effect on Electoral Vote
Uncounted and Switched Votes: Effect on Vote Share

2004 Election Model Summary

Final State and National Polls, Projections, Exit Polls, Recorded Vote

Current Summary Statistics

State Model
Aggregate Average
Projection (2-party)
Electoral Vote
Monte Carlo Trial Wins

National Model
5-Poll Average
Projection (2-party)

 

Obama
49.34
52.59
354.3
5000


50.00
54.56

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

McCain
45.24
47.41
183.7
0


42.40
45.44

 

weighted average based on 2004 recorded vote
Base case scenario: 60% Undecided Vote to Obama
EV = ∑ win probability (i) * EV(i), i=1,51 states




60% Undecided vote to Obama

[Motown_Johnny]

1. 60% undecideds for Obama? I thought the conventional wisdom was that

many people saying they are undecided are just not going to vote for a black man but don't want to admit it.


To be safe I think we need to count on only about 30% undecideds vote for Obama

[Dumak]

2. or perhaps

because some independents just want to be able to say they have voted for the winning team, that this conventional wisdom is put out there to convince these independents that the republicans will win even if they are a little behind in the polls

[Stop Cornyn]

5. GIGO

[Frank Booth]

3. Thanks for this. I was wondering (I posted on this earlier but didn't get a clear answer), what

margin in the popular vote would Obama have to have to basically ensure victory in the electoral college (say 90% certainty or above)? Assuming there's no manipulation of the vote totals. Thanks.

[tiptoe]

4. thanks for appreciating the issue. Here ya go..

From 10/5 update

Optimal Resource Allocation (Key States)
A new feature of the model is a ranking measure of optimal allocation of resources for key states. The allocation will be highest for the most competitive battleground states (high electoral vote and low polling spread). These are the five highest ranked states and allocation percentages (see the State model):

1- FL (19.7) 
2- NC (15.3) 
3- MO (12.8) 
4- IN (11.2) 
5- OH (8.8) 

In other words, these states are where Obama should spend most (68%) of his money.