Zogby Poll has Bush up by 2%

[Tarheelhombre]

Kerry 44%, Bush 46%

The telephone poll of 1001 likely voters was conducted from Monday through Thursday (August 30-September 2, 2004) during the Republican National Convention in New York City. Overall results have a margin of sampling error of +/-3.2


Pollster John Zogby: "The President has had a very good convention following a good week where he also dominated the news with his own message: leadership, strength, decisiveness. Not only has he dominated the news but he also has thrown Kerry off his game. Last week I said the President's top goal from the convention was to make sure his Republican ducks were all in a row. He needed to bring back and strengthen his ties with both wavering moderates (concerned about Iraq) and deficit hawks. His messages have clearly elucidated why the war and why the spending. This is the first time this year that the President has achieved 90% support among Republicans. He has also strengthened his numbers among investors.
"The President has widened his lead in the Red States and tightened things up considerably in the Blue States. For the first time in months he now leads among Independents and Catholics.

"While the President has improved his numbers, he still has a negative re-elect, job performance, and wrong direction.

"So the battle is now engaged. I have written before about the metaphor of the bouncing rubber ball. Take a rubber ball and bounce it as hard as you can. Then the laws of physics take over. The President has gotten three preceding bounces - each one shorter in height and duration. I think this week is the fourth bounce of the ball: this time only into the higher forties and perhaps only lasting a week or so.....

[StevieM]

1. In the middle of the GOP convention

that is pretty weak.

[NewYorkerfromMass]

5. and with Kerry getting hammered endlessly by SBVT and few ads of his own

against the incumbent. Looks good to me. :thumbsup:

[Tarheelhombre]

10. I don't think we will really know what the bump is until Monday

[mbali]

2. He'll be up another few points by the time the media whores are smoking

their cigarettes.

[sonicx]

3. please note: the last Zogby poll was 2 weeks ago

yes, he's up 6, but Kerry's fired up now. He's going to win!!!!!

[LSdemocrat]

4. THIS IS AFTER KERRY'S AD BLACKOUT!

We're in good shape!

[WI_DEM]

6. This must have been mostly before Bush's speech tonight

Don't get discouraged he will probably be leading by 2-5 points in most polls, but it will even out.

[Frodo]

13. It would be ENTIRELY before the speech

and at least 75-80% before Zell Miller (likely completely before it).

This is not good. But doesn't tell us anything permanent until we see how quickly/slowly it fades. I'm concerned that Kerry may make moves out of panic. It's too early for that.

[lancdem]

17. Zogby himself says he expects the bounce to last a week

[displacedvermoter]

19. Are you saying you think the Miller speech will be a good

thing for Bushco? I'd like to think that the vision of that hate-filled old scold will remind people of Buchanan in 1992, and that any positive benefit from Bush's speech may be diluted by the Miller one.

Why do you think that Kerry will panic because he might be down 4 points after the GOP convention? If you told me six months ago this is where we'd be right now (and with Bush's approval ratings still below 50 percent according to most polls) then I'd have told you we were going to win. Still feel that way,

[Frodo]

20. Because such attacks tend to have weight.

And Buchanan was a Republican. I'm in NC and I've found at least half a dozen co-workers who 1) don't know who Zell Miller IS, and 2) were shocked (and influenced) by the fact he is a Democrat.

This plays very differently in the audience it was targeted at than it does in DU.

"Why do you think that Kerry will panic because he might be down 4 points after the GOP convention?"

First of all, that's down three point BEFORE the heart of the convention. That poll was run almost entirely before te first televised prime-time speech. It was either a coincidence (combined with some Swiftvet stuff), or I was desperately wrong in my assumptions about how this campaign is going to progress. What scares me is that though I don't mind being wrong, I think the Kerry campaing was operating under the same assumptions.

The "approval under 50%" isn't all it's cracked up to be. Though there have been a number of polls lately above that mark, it isn't the point. We're in a grey area on the charts. "No President with numbers worse than this has been re-elected recently", but no president with numbers higher than this has ever lost. High 40s to low 50s isn't enough to judge by.

[unfrigginreal]

7. That's pretty shitty for Bush

If he couldn't come out of the Convention over 50% it's going to be tough for him to get there. I feel good about this poll.

[BillZBubb]

8. If all he's getting is 46% at this point, Bush* is in deep doo doo

I hope Zogby's numbers are right.

[Guaranteed]

11. Yup, could be a whole lot worse for us.

We're in good shape if he's right. Bad economic numbers, 1,000 dead Americans...hell, 60 Minutes is going to knock off at least one of those Bush points on Sunday.

[mvd]

9. "very good convention??"

I think Zogby is putting a ridiculous spin on the poll. We are still in good position, because I think Kerry's really going to go on the offensive now. He was kind of hamstrung for a month.

[fujiyama]

12. So a lead

within the margin of error. A few undecideds leaning for Bush have probably sided with him.

Not too great for Bush.

[The Doctor.]

14. Here's some hopeful numbers....

http://www.corante.com/loose/archives/005819.php

[Tarheelhombre]

15. If we can keep the Bush lead less than 6%, we are in good shape

[aint_no_life_nowhere]

16. Whatever bounce there is won't last - there are too many serious issues

left unresolved. One bad incident in Iraq or one bad economics report will put Bush right back on the defensive. The debates will make a big difference, as Bush won't have his hand-holders around him and will have to stand or fall on his own. Smoke and mirrors, balloons, and light shows won't decide this election. Reality will.

[TexasSissy]

18. I've seen that zogby poll reported as 43% Kerry, 46% Bush

for 8/30 - 9/2/04. With 9% undecided. Unless it's a typo.

[Crunchy Frog]

21. He's gotten bounces periodically

throughout his pResidency. Without exception, each one has been smaller and shorter than the one before. I don't expect this bounce to be any different.

Candidates always get some bounce coming out of their convention. The important factor is whether or not it can be sustained. Based on *'s history, I doubt very much that this bounce will be sustained for very long at all.