VIX above 70 (If the dow closes above 9000 I won't be shocked)

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

The VIX, an index of predicted volatility that indicates levels of fear, broke 70 today. That's not just a record, it's beyond imagining.

9/11 was a VIX 35 event.

Markets cannot bottom until almost every last person throws in the towel, and we're close to that.

So a violent 'panic buying' rebound is quite possible today. That doesn't mean a long lasting rebound or a permanent bottom.

(This was posted while the market was way down, BTW)

[Zynx]

1. The VIX at 70 indicates a short term rally of possibly greater than 20%.

[KittyWampus]

7. is that based on psychology and/or past events?

[Zynx]

12. Back in 2002 when the VIX got this high the rallies were very sharp.

It was almost like clock-work.

[bigscott]

2. i wished more people realized

that panic buying or panic selling are NOT investment strategies

[Curtland1015]

3. I've seen people predicting that the stock market was going to bounce like a ball for a while...

...several months perhaps, before evening out. I hope it's just that and not a downward spiral.

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

5. Yes, there is supposed to be some varriation day to day!

[Gman]

4. My wife asked me this morning when we should get back in

we've been in money market/cash funds for over a year now to protect principle. I said when the market is in the 5K's.

A short term rally does not mean bottom. As long as the credit markets are seized up there is no bottom. I don't see anything freeing up the credit markets until after the first of the year at the earliest.

[On the Road]

6. I've Never Seen the VIX at These Levels

Ususally when it gets to 40-50 it's primed for a bounceback. I tried getting in a couple of time, but got stopped out very quickly. Am just sitting in cash now.

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

8. Until this month the record was something like 41, I think

[Zynx]

13. On an intra-day basis in 2002 I think it got up to 50.

[AllentownJake]

9. Bush speaking

Dow will drop again.

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

10. Not if he announces semi-nationalization of the banks

Not saying he will, just noting that there are a few things he could say that would be positive.

[AllentownJake]

11. He could announce anything

it still is going to drop. The market have no confidence in anything he proposes.

[Gman]

14. Bingo!

at 3:41 EDT up over 200. Nice handicapping.