If THAT was a CNN/Time Poll, it's to be expected. CNN polls are outLIARS.

[TruthIsAll]

CNN/Time have collaborated in the past.

CNN is FULL-OF-CRAP. They screwed Dukakis in 1988. They screwed Gore in 2000.

They are trying the same crap with Kerry.

They have been lying to America forever and now they have gotten MUCH WORSE.

THEY WILL STOP AT NOTHING FOR BUSH.

LIES.LIES.LIES.

LIKE THIS DAMN POLL.

Go here for the national composite and state poll models.

Check out CNN/Gallup. They are in the 15-poll group.

I thought TIME was ok, so I included them with in the 11-poll "Good Guys". Now that they are working with CNN...

http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/

[Libby2]

1. I'm in shock

I just can't believe it.

[tom22]

CNN produces polls with Gallup and USAToday

They are reliable. I suspect Time is as well. We took a beating this month and Kerry is behind substantially. Face reality and start working. two months to go.

[PROGRESSIVE1]

3. Gallup is the LEAST reliable poll out there.

Rassmussen is more reliable.

:eyes:

[TheWatcher]

4. Bullshit, as usual

Gallup has CONSISTENTLY been a GOP Shill Poll, and completely contradicted by all the other National Polls at any given time.

It's YOU who need to face reality.

But Thanks For Playing.

Edited to say this was not directed at TruthIsAll but Mr. Low Post Count "Voice Of Reality" up there.

Gallup RELABLE? Please.

[West Coast Democrat]

5. In 2000, CNN partnered with Time for polling

http://www.pollingreport.com/wh2gen1.htm

[Andromeda]

11. Gallup and USA Today are not reliable polls.

This is not reality, Tom. Bush has not made this much of a jump in the polls after that abberation of a political convention Bush and friends put together.

CNN/Gallup/USA have never been in line with Zogby and all the other polls taken throughout this nation. They have always shown Bush ahead by 3 or 4 points so their polls are suspect to say the least.

[MoonRiver]

16. Gallup is NOT reliable. I have stories I've told and will tell again.

USA Today is rightwing all the way. TIME is reichwing leaning. I have little to zero trust for any of these polls' results.

[Blue_Roses]

19. If they're so damn reliable then why did Judy Woodruff

get caught saying off camera that she is suspect to the validity of these polls too, 'cause another one has them tied. Bullshit. This poll is bullshit and always leans right.

[GCP]

8. Don't forget Dukakis had something like a 16 point lead over Bush Sr

after the conventions. It's not the end of the world, Kerry's been hit hard this month but now he's hitting back.
On top of that, we get
1. the latest Medicare hike - seniors aren't going to like that.
2. Massive numbers of ex-pats signing up to vote against Shrub from overseas.
3. Howard Stern's going to start really hitting Shrub as the election gets closer.
4. Springsteen's concerts.
5. They're not polling people with cell-phones - how many young people do you know who only uses a cell phone and doesn't have a land-line?
6. Kerry is massively in the lead among young voters.
7. The Plame affair.
8. Kitty Kelly's book on the Bushes is due out on Sept 14th.
9. The 60 Minutes about Barnes owning up to getting Shrub in the TANG and being ashamed of it.

That lead is going to evaporate. It's going to be neck and neck all the way up to polling day, then people who are still undecided have always in the past swung against the incumbent if they figure he's not done them any good personally.

[PROGRESSIVE1]

2. I find it hard to believe that * has a double digit lead.

[Andromeda]

6. When I heard about this poll,

I almost threw up. This is just f**king unbelievabe! We've really got to fight back -- HARD. We can't let them get away with this.:wtf:

[dennis4868]

Time is accurate

[Blue_Roses]

20. I'm much more likely to believe

registered voters as opposed to likely voters:eyes:

[Nicholas_J]

21. Already

Most of the political pundits and media people seriously question the poll as being inaccurate, or totally close to impossible. IN one of the rare PBS events, Even Shields and Brooks agreed that the time polls oculd not be correct, given the massive polarization in the nation, there is simply not enough wiggle room in the population for Bush to have gotten an 11 percent boost in the polls.

[Fozzledick]

26. Time is relative to the viewpoint of the observer

Just a little reminder from Einstein.

(The magazine isn't very accurate either!:evilgrin: )

[Goldom]

7. they don't say it outright,

but this "52/41" crap is STILL a statistical tie. If you look at the bottom, they've got it at a 4% error. Take away 4% for bush, add it to kerry, and give kerry the 3% that Nader no way has, and look, 48-48.

[DaveinMD]

9. the CNN polls

have all been outliers. That's why it gets dismissed. Zogby has us down two. Zogby was right on target last time. Regardless, even if we are down 6-8 right now, that's normal right after the other party's convention. Things will even out over the next two weeks and real race begins. Kerry is also fighting back much harder now. Things will be just fine.

[dennis4868]

10. I think if you saw your house burning down.....

you would be positive....we have to face reality that we are behind....we are getting kicked in the ass right now by a bunch of liars and media whores!

[DaveinMD]

12. look at the Zogby poll

we are probably behind right now. That's to be expected. Its right after the REpublican convention. These results will be fleeting the race will settle down to its normal point.

[Nicholas_J]

13. WE are actually no behind

The Time poll is as much an anomaly as the Gallop Polls which showed Bush leading right after the Democratic COnvention.

Other polls taken during the same dates as the time poll by relyable pollsters:

Time (926 LV) 8/31 - 9/2 Bush 52% Kerry 41% 3% Bush +11
Zogby (1001 LV) 8/30 - 9/2 Bush 46% 43% Kerry 3% Bush +3
ARG (800 LV) 8/30 - 9/1 Bush 47% Kerry 47% 3% TIE

Three polls, all taken over relatively the same period. One taken over one less day than the others, has Bush way ahead.

Zogby is a statistical tie. Zogby has the largest sample.

ARG shows a real tie. ARG's Sample is slightly smaller than the Time Polls.

Oddly enough, when you throw NADER into these polls someting unuual happens. IN the ARG polls Kerry is beating BUsh when Nader is thrown into the mix, and Nader is very much in the mix, he hasnt stopped running. When you measure by Either ALL VOTERS, or ALL REGISTERED VOTERS, Kerry leads in all of the polls.

All likely voters has been found to be the most unrelaible measure, as many people who end up not voting at all frequently end up ion the "LIKELY VOTERS" class. WHen they are polled they state they are likely to vote, but as many as half of them end up not voting at all.

The most relaible is registered voter, and the best to use for accurace is simply everyone polled, as it ends up that all of the anomalied that can occur from selecting either registered voters or likely voters all get cancelled out. And among ALL Voters, Kerry still leads in the majority of the most recent polls.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/bush_vs_kerry.html

[DaveinMD]

14. we are likely

a little behind. Let's be realistic. But the bounce will disappear and it will be a dead heat again. Kerry is fighting back hard now, so the numbers will move over the next two weeks.

[Nicholas_J]

15. THe ARG is the most conprehensive of all the polls taken

IN the last few days. It has the data broken down by the most varied groups while both time and Zogby merely polled "Likely Voters" a rather vague, anomalous" grouping. If you exclude polls done by Republican or Democratic Pollsters, and only look at pollsters who have no political affiliation, the election is still at a statistical tie. I would say that Bush may be ahead in a few point in polls, but that his lead is still within the statistical magin of error for these polls.

[sangh0]

17. But some will insist that "Kerry is behind"

no matter how many facts you point out. If you question them on it, you get "Let's be realistic"

[tom22]

18. The poll is what it is.

Yiou can claim it is a lie, you claim it is a fraud, you can claim it is fixed. The rest of the polls will be in this weekend. But if you think Kerry had a good August you are living in a fantasy world.

[Nicholas_J]

22. Hardly

Kerry's August has not been all that bad. After all of the attacks, Kerry has been running neck and neck with Bush, and the media is reporting the election as neck and neck. No neutral media outlet has reported that the Bush campaign has given the Kerry campaign a death blow. I have claimed that the polls is a lie. political pundits, notalble this evening both Shields and Brooks, have stated outright that the results of this poll are totally skewed, and cannot possibly be accurate. I have some expert supporters to back up my opinion.

[TheWatcher]

27. And the rest of the Polls will more than likely contradict Gallup as usual

Gallup is what they are. Biased and suspect. If you caqn't see that then we'll agree to disagree.

But if you actually think Gallup is reliable, then all I can say is.....

"You're not from around here are you?"

[Awsi Dooger]

23. The biggest farce was the Inside Politics daily tracking poll in 2000

It bounced all over the map for no apparent reason, 5 or 7 point swings even when nothing significant happened. That poll and the Battleground poll were the most worthless of 2000.

But I'm sure CNN will renew it very soon.

[autorank]

24. Mr. Truth, who is this guy? Whats his track record? Time Poll Firm

I tried to track down SRBI to see if there was some obvious 'fix is in' link. Didn't find it but here's the bio from their web site: wws.srbi.com.

Is this guy for real or a ringer?
----------------------
Mark A. Schulman, Ph.D., President and Partner
of Schulman, Ronca & Bucuvalas, Inc. (SRBI). (firm that did 52/41 Time Poll)

"He is a frequent media commentator on polling and elections and has appeared on both CNN and Fox News.

He was closely involved with the development of online banking and has worked extensively in the development of new products, services and strategic approaches in corporate financial services.

He currently serves on the ABC News Election Decision Desk. From 1996-2002, he served on the Decision Desk at Voter News Service, an organization owned by the major television networks and the Associated Press, which projected election outcomes."
-----------------------

[TruthIsAll]

25. I never heard of him, but based on his background, I would

never trust him.

VNS?
CNN?
FOX?

They are all liars.

[autorank]

28. Gracias Senor Truth!

[DuaneBidoux]

29. I'm a little less paranoid than most of the people on this list

that there is any kind of right wing media conspiracy. BUT I do think some really weird shit is happening and that probably even the experts don't know what the hell is going on. To me the polls started to look really weird when looked at state by state about 2 weeks ago. That was when I saw several state polls where Tennessee was leaning Kerry and California was barely Kerry (give me a f**kin' break). If California goes Bush that will be apocalyptic and Tennessee, jeez, the middle of that state is solid inbred Baptist from mobile home park after mobile home park. No way will they EVER vote for Kerry.

First of all, just keep remembering that popular vote MEANS Diddly. It probably SHOULD mean something, but it doesn't. The only way any of these polls mean anything is state by state. There is no doubt that Kerry has been losing ground, and is probably down enough to lose at this moment. But I suspect that in the inner sanctums of these poling places they're going nuts because stuff just isn't adding up.

[JDStutts]

30. Corporate Media the fix is in.

some people just want to vote for the winner. They know nothing about the issues, but they think it is their civic duty to vote. They never stop to think "maybe it's my civic duty to learn the issues and care about my world."

When the media tells these people that * is gonna win. They vote for the winner, so next time the pollster comes around the margin shrinks down to 4. Voila, the right wing media captures some Kerry voters without spending a dime of campaign money.