The reason Obama jumped ahead has only a little bit to do with the Dow... the real reason is:

[scheming daemons]

Debate performances.


The Dow going up or down is just a symptom of what is happening. People were nervous about the economy 3 weeks ago when the Dow was over 11,000.


The REAL reason Obama has jumped in the polls is the same reason Reagan did in 1980. After months of being told by the side in power that the challenger was "too scary" or "too risky", millions of Americans got to see... in the span of one 90 minute debate... that all of the charges were unfounded.

America in October of 1980 and in September of 2008 collectively watched a debate and came away saying:

"He doesn't seem so scary to me."

"I can see that guy as President."

"After all the crap that's been going on, I'm ready to try something new."



Reagan took a dead-heat race and turned it into a blowout in one 90-minute debate performance where he calmed a nervous electorate.


Yes... the economic crisis helped. But the real reason Obama is ahead is the "comfort factor". People saw him in the debate(s) and were able to envision an Obama presidency.

It's why the scare tactics don't work now.


Because all indicators are pointing to a big Democratic year, all Obama needed to do was to cross the "Commander-in-Chief" threshold with the public.

He did.

And the race went on to a trajectory that won't change now.

[Zynx]

1. Indeed. The evidence is that the 18% decline in the stock market last week did almost

nothing to change poll numbers one way or the other.

[JeffR]

2. Bingo.

The "Obama has momentum due to the bad economy" line is just more feeble MSM spin. They wanted their little horserace so bad that they have to come up with some "Eureka!" explanation for what's happening.

[Callalily]

3. Cokie Roberts on NPR

said that the state of the economy is the only reason President Obama is ahead. Hogwash!

Polls are up for President Obama b/c everyone is realizing that McCain is not a leader, can not think under stress, and will lead our country into further turmoil.

[VolcanoJen]

4. I completely agree, and have been saying the same.

Wednesday's final debate will serve to seal the deal.

[Schulzz]

5. And that's why Obama's lead is not a just short-time bounce like before.

There where 3 debates that showed that our ticket is the best choice, so people's impression strengthened every week.

[Patiod]

6. It's the exposure effect

The more people see him, the more they can see him as President.

CBS Sunday morning had a piece on it yesterday, and ironically, we have Bush to thank for some of this, since he did put Powell and Rice on the national stage, where people got used to seeing African Americans as leaders and experts. Movies and TV (think "24") have also gotten American used to the possibility of a black President.

I've seen it among Democrats who were firmly against Obama earlier - the more they see him debate, the more comfortable they get with him.

[RichGirl]

7. The stock market is as erratic as McCain....

And everybody knows it. It will take a lot more than having the numbers go up to make people feel confident. Most people don't like to gamble, especially with their lives and everything they have. It is very clear, whether it's up or down, that the market is a gamble. I also think that people know that the market effects those at the top. Big numbers in the Dow are not going to change anything in their lives anytime soon.

[treestar]

8. I've said all along that the more exposure people have to Obama

The more votes he will get. IA, it has nothing to do with the economy. It is just that he would be a better President that McBush.

[Overseas]

9. The Dow plus seeing McLurch vs No Drama Obama.

Being in an emergency and seeing McLurch go from The Fundamentals of the Economy are Sound to Emergency Campaign Suspension within 48 hours

and then

No Drama Obama keep working on the problem and his campaign, noting that a president should be able to do more than one thing at a time.

And then that second debate with McWandering tossing out conflicting ideas and tangents that just faded out versus Calm Senator Obama talking about solutions in a logical way but with a compassionate understanding of what we are going through.