The Problem With the Polls the Networks Report - How Do We Fight It?

[ruggerson]

The polls that the networks jump on, by and large, do not weigh for party affiliation. Both the Time and the Newsweek poll heavily overweighted Republicans this time around (the Time poll has overweighted Republicans for the last four samples).

Rasmussen and Zogby both readjust their sampling to reflect party identification distribution, that is to say if on any given poll they over-sample Dems or Repubs, they will adjust the weighting to be in line with the actual statistics of voter registration and voting patterns.

Rasmussen got burned by NOT adjusting last time around, he had Bush up significantly right before the election, and now says had he readjusted the weightings properly, he would have had Gore up by 1.

Both Rasmussen and Zogby currently show the race to be within 2 points. We can assume their polling to be far more accurate.

Problem is, how can we get the networks and the cable talking heads to report the more accurate figures? An email blitz? Any suggestions?

[kentuck]

1. Call them on their credibility...

Just as with the Newsweek poll, once you look real closely at the numbers, you can see where they are invalid and incredible.

[Dookus]

2. Why fight it?

let the Republicans think they're far ahead.

[ruggerson]

9. Because

It gives the impression of Bush momentum and leads to a spate of "Kerry is deadmeat" articles in national and local media, which in turn can lead to Kerry voters getting demoralized and creating a "bandwagon effect" for Bush.

This is a crucial stage of the campaign and we can ill afford to have the national media trumpeting Bush "momentum" based on flawed polling data.

[still_one]

3. screw the polls

let them think whatever bullshit they want

we need to get out and keep pounding that this administration is incompentent and reckless

[Southsideirish]

4. Thanks for the info- I didn't know that. Time and Newsweek have

lost all credibility with me -not that I had any use for them to begin with, of course. I just couldn't' understand that huge difference between their polls and the others.

[swag]

5. Enjoy it.

The CNN/Time and Newsweek polls have been shredded for methodology that significantly oversampled Republicans (similar to the LA Times poll that significantly oversampled Democrats a few months ago).

Zogby agrees with the latest Rasmussen. The massive CNN/Time and Newsweek "bounces" will likely be seen to have evaporated when other national polls come out this week without the pre-Labor Day problems of CNN/Time and Newsweek.

And Kerry/Edwards have started swinging harder against Bushco, so the
illusory "surge" in polls they will experience against the illusory Bush "bounce" will label their new fight style as a success. They will be reported to have "momentum," will be seen as the effective fighters, will attract the people who love to be with the winners.

This is an optimistic, but plausible, scenario, I think.

[Chichiri]

8. Optimistic in that you're hoping the Rove Machine dones't control

the action in the mass media at the moment, which I think is very likely. But with any luck, once Kerry pulls ahead again, they'll remember Journalistic Ethics 101.

[Feanorcurufinwe]

6. Wrong battlefield, we will win at the ballot box, not on the media.

[randr]

7. The Media continues to battle it out for the campaign dollars.

[yellowcanine]

10. We don't - The race is still essentially even and it is going to stay that

way. This race is going to be decided on turnout. Forget the swing voters. Concentrate on convincing Kerry supporters to be sure and vote.

[DeepModem Mom]

11. kick