I'm on the ground a lot, and honestly I think this should be a landslide for Obama

[Emit]

notice I said 'should' - something nagging in the back of my head and heart says, if the powers that be let it be, it will be a landslide.

The volume of volunteers, the ratio of Obama supporters to McCain supporters, from our data, the surprising endorsements -- everything this year is even greater than when I did this in '04 for Kerry, and I thought that was big then.

If it's stolen, there's gonna have to be a lot of 'splainin to do. Just sayin'.

[KayLaw]

1. There's something different about Obama.

Maybe it's just a hunch, or an impression from things I've read, but I don't think he would take "losing" sitting down. I think he'd really fight for us.

[ddeclue]

2. Be Careful though..

we all want to say that and it IS probably true BUT

remember when someone sends you out with a list door to door, they are very likely targeting that list to friendly voters at this stage of the game so you aren't likely to hear from many McCain supporters.

[Emit]

7. Been following the data for a while

and have knocked many an unfriendly door in order to find the supporters. IDing is always such fun, lol.

More recently, though, I'm usually the one giving the lists out. ;)

And you're right, the current data is GOTV. Early vote started this weekend.

[ddeclue]

18. I generate target lists for candidates and

I don't use the "canned" COTS (commercial off the shelf) voter file systems like VAN or Vote Builder because I can come up with better more sophisticated targets with my own handbuilt voter system (here in Florida the Voter Files are free as they also are in NC and OH and are cheap in NV and PA)..

I do something called "householding" for GOTV purposes to enhance my targeting. (This does not apply quite the same way for voter registration and general ID'ing supporters...)

This means:

1) I generate a target list of voters that meet some certain criteria, (usually this is for special elections where I look for primary and special election voters - in a Presidential general, this doesn't apply)

2) I then go through the voter file and do a "GROUP BY" query on the addresses to generate a list of unique addresses (households) in the district.

3) I then determine to which household ID each voter ID belongs. (i.e. I add a household ID field to the voter record and do a query to fill that field where the voter address matches a household address)

4) I then use the household ID's and the party ID info to determine how many voters of each party live in each household.

5) I then try to avoid sending canvassers to households that have fewer (likely) D+I voters than (likely) R voters in them because R's vote more often than D's in general.

6) I then generate a walk order list that includes both the original TARGETED D's PLUS what I call "collateral" D's and I's that just happen to live in the same household as the TARGET. I indicate the target with a star or some other manner on the report. I also include any R's that live in the household just in case you knock a door and the R comes to the door so you can at least know his name and look like you know what you are doing - R's are usually impressed by an appearance of organizational competence.

7) If they aren't on the target then we don't walk the house because that's an unfriendly house.

8) This process of "householding" the voter list will give you on average 20% more friendly voters per door than a straight process of going after D's and it gives an even better differential than that BETWEEN FRIENDLIES and UNFRIENDLIES...

I needs to writes me a book on this GOTV targeting stuff...

Doug D.
GOTV and Voter File Zen Master
The Voter File is My Ally...

"Size matters not. Look at me. Judge me by my size, do you? Hmm? Hmm. And well you should not. For my ally is the Force, and a powerful ally it is" - Yoda, The Empire Strikes Back

[Emit]

21. Are you doing that currently for Obama?

Or is this for local candidates that you've created this system? Also, how do you get your data? Did you input it into your hand-built voter system yourself, or were you able to access it electronically? (might be a silly question and sorry if it is, but the data one of our vols obtained she bought from the registrar's office and it's on paper - can't imagine entering all that stuff into a data base)

All in all, it's sometimes just a crap shoot, imho. I've walked my own little neighborhood so many times they probably all think I'm nuts. This year, one neighbor - a life-long Democrat who usually supports Dems all the way gave me a really hard time about Obama this year. I kindly told him he may want to lay off the cable news for a bit and read alternative news sources. He's generally a really friendly guy, but he about took my head off when I was out walking this past summer.

Anyway, I admire your system, and it's not unlike some of the grassroots stuff we were attempting with our local infrastructure here. But, the Obama overlay has their system, and they're running the show here. I'm just following orders, lol. :patriot:

[ddeclue]

23. No not for Obama...

You can order the data for FL from the Secretary of State Division of Elections (FVRS data) or for individual counties from the local SOE. Various states make this data available in a variety of prices and ways.

The data is just TSV so you just import it into a database tool like Access or MySQL.

Of course there is no way to input hundreds of thousands to millions of records by hand - why bother when you can get the data electronically from the SOS.

Where are you? (City, State)

Doug D.

[Emit]

24. I'm in Reno, NV -

and the gal that was kind enough to make up maps and lists for various District Coordinators did so on paper - I think she is likely less comfortable with computers, as she rarely ever used the VAN.

For those who used her info, it was manageable because we broke our districts down to sections and then, of course, various precincts and sections of those, etc., where one volunteer would have, say, 25 voters to connect with and keep in touch with. It was kind of a neighbor to neighbor thingy, which fell by the wayside rather quickly with the extended primaries. In the future, once the election is over, regardless of who wins, I imagine our local volunteers would still like to continue to build their infrastructure, if we can keep volunteers, that is. In my district - a transient and very working class area -- it is difficult to find, much less keep, volunteers.

Thanks for all the info. :hi:

[ddeclue]

27. In your state the list isn't free but it is really cheap $20 n/t

[CrispyQ]

3. Chris Rock on Bill Maher a couple of weeks ago:

"When it's over, they'll look him straight in the face and say 'Hey man, you got the most votes, too bad you lost'."

[ecstatic]

4. The RW smear machine is in overdrive. Can't take anything for granted

right now.

[Emit]

14. Tell me about it - and that worries me a bit, especially with low information voters

and those prone to fear and prejudice.

I, myself, a life-long Dem/activist just got this mailer from our state Repug party: http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=132&topic_id=7502583

[LPH]

5. ..

I doubt it. I think he will likely lose. The media now says 49% Obama, 47% McCain and they usually slant the % in the democrats favor like they did in 2004 with Bush/Kerry. Kerry had a good lead and still lost.

Don't know for sure though, its still very much up in the air.

[Emit]

8. You think Obama will lose?

hmmm... no hope, huh?

[crim son]

9. There is more than one poll out there, and the spread varies.

Check out http://www.pollingreport.com and look at the recent polls on the presidential race. Alternatively, you could just keep on pretending. Your choice.

[Lubernaut]

10. ???

Haven't seen those numbers anywhere recently.

[LynneSin]

11. Last time I checked we do not elect a president by popularity vote

we elect by the electoral college.

http://www.electoral-vote.com/

Spin that one baby!

[AlCzervik]

13. did you sign up today just to post that?

[crim son]

19. chimpsrsmarter, don't you see? It has THREE posts.

It also wanted to comment on liberal christianity and some thing else I haven't noticed.

edited for calling you chimpsrsarter

[AlCzervik]

20. Crimmy you can call me chimpsrsarter anytime you want, but only you!

:toast:

[crim son]

22. Awwwww...

You're the best, chimprstarter! :toast: :P

[renie408]

28. LOL...you have certainly cherry picked the 'media' you reference.

[JimWis]

6. I am thinking landslide too. Alot of signs. In addition to the things

you mentioned - look at the crowd sizes. Obama is having huge crowds. Still a bit apprehensive though. Guess that's because we need Barack to win so bad.

[DainBramaged]

12. I agree, I talked to a friend who works for one of the polling companies

(they were doing consumer polling at a local shopping center, and she picked up the job as a second income) and said "the word" is the polling companies aren't telling the whole story, and that the Obama tsunami is bigger than they are letting on.

[Emit]

15. Very interesting and thanks for posting

I wish there was some way we could get a decent reporter to dig deep into these things now, before the election is over. I've read some other threads today about poll numbers being massaged to ensure an appearance of a tighter race and all.

[Kdillard]

16. I am a little confused as to why people thought Kerry was going

to win in 04. Yes he had a chance and support but there were many signs that he was not going to win it. I was not following the polls closely then but from what I have read and seen here Bush was leading Kerry in the nationals polls and Kerry had limited options in terms of how he could win the race. My sense of 04 was the deck being stacked against Kerry and he just couldn't manage to pull through between the media, Republican shenanigans and him not getting enough traction in the West, Bush being an incumbent President with a strong base. I don't get that sense in this election because every indicator says that we are in a much better position than in 04. We are not trailing in the National polls and haven't been since the Republican convention. Most importantly the state polls are trending in our direction and Obama has more options for victory than Kerry did in 04. As Obama has said he doesn't want to wake up on Nov 4th worrying about 1 or 2 polls which may or may deliver and through the hard work of everyone he won't have to be. Stop worrying keep doing what you are doing to help Obama win on Nov 4th.

[OwnedByFerrets]

17. It would be if we had fair and honest elections.....

we do not. We will be very fortunate to win, much less landslide.

[Leeny]

25. What are you doing on the ground?

Please get up!
:crazy:
I've worked a few ground campaigns and I am SOOOOOOOOOO impressed by the outreach and the coordination and just.... oh ... just all of it. It's so friggin' cool. It is different this time. It feels like there's a movement afoot, eh?
GO 'BAMA
:bounce:

[Emit]

26. Working on the 'ground' in the campaign

I'm up and working and that's exactly what I'm talking about. I had over 100 volunteers show up at my house this weekend for a launch walk and it was amazing!

[Leeny]

29. Very cool

I heard this the other day on my way to work, some local news or something. They said that the grass roots ground campaign days are mostly gone, don't work anymore, blah blah blah. TV, the internet. Why do we need ground campaigns, they said.

Because the work!! And this one's the best example I've ever seen. People getting involved at every level, from making brownies for a local bake sale to phoning and walking, to $$ donations, etc.