Clark 2nd in NH tracking poll Clark 16 (+2), Kerry 13 (-1), Dean 36 (-1)

[Mattforclark]

http://americanresearchgroup.com/nhpoll/demtrack/

WOW.

"While Wesley Clark's 16% and John Kerry's 13% in the ballot preference are within the margin of error giving them a tie for second place, Clark was in front of Kerry by 4 percentage points on Sunday and by 6 percentage points on Monday.

Clark's strength remains among men age 45 and older and he has a new television ad running in New Hampshire that gained very favorable playback from women on Monday.

If the trend to Clark continues and he is able to improve among women age 45 and older, he will be alone in second place."

Looks like he might even go up further. Astounding. Clark has the Big 'Mo. The 'major' ad is working too.

[powerpuffgrrl]

1. As a Clark supporter,

I think you could have at least put Dean's number up there. He's at 36%.

By intentionally leaving off that number and only putting the (-1) in your topic, you KNOW you're just trying to mislead.

PLEASE stop all the "Faux News-like" crap of trying to downplay fellow Democrats. It only makes us all look bad.

[Renew Deal]

4. That's fair

[powerpuffgrrl]

12. Fixed it

Thanks. I looked at the wrong column.

Still, it does no justice to intentionally downplay such high numbers. I think we can all agree that this is detrimental to our party in General (sorry, had to slip that in).

[Donny247]

6. Correction: Dean's at 36%

Dean's at 36%, down 3% from his peak.

[SahaleArm]

7. Dean is at 36% according to the ARG poll Jan 4-6 n/t

[Mattforclark]

9. That is a mistake

I will certainly edit.

[Goldmund]

19. I have to say, I'm impressed

I'm still undecided, but if the primaries were held today, I'd probably vote Dean.

But I have to say the "Faux News-like crap" you speak of I hear equally from Clark and Dean supporters. If there were only a little more sobriety and honesty, like the one you display, I'd have no doubts in our ability to beat *.

My reaction to your post kindof saddens me -- this should be a common sentiment, and I shouldn't be so impressed when I read something like you wrote. But in actuality, and unfortunatelly, what you displayed here is exceptional integrity.

[Mattforclark]

21. It was an honest mistake, and is now fixed

If you would like, I will post a new thread trumpeting the fact that Dean is at 36% in this poll in order to make that abundantly clear.

[Goldmund]

22. Hey, chill

I understand that the mistake was honest, and I completely believe you. But the poster of the message I replied to didn't realize this, and he/she reacted with a sentiment I liked -- I didn't mean my message to reflect on your post in any way.

[Mattforclark]

23. Great, sorry.

I agree with you about powerpuffgirl's post.

[Kahuna]

27. Welcome to DU, ppg.. I'd like to add...

Matt is a very honest poster. You should give posters the benefit of the doubt until you observe a pattern.

:hi:

[Donny247]

2. He's also surging nationally!!

Although one poll is not a trend, Clark is up 8% in the latest Gallup poll, well outside the margin of error. Seeing that Dean dropped 3% in the same poll, Clark is now only 4 points behind Dean (24% - 20%). Everyone else is far behind. The two-way race has begun!

[Kathleen04]

3. Yessss

2nd place!, This is excellent!

I'm glad that women are responding favorably to the ad.

Go Clark!

[Renew Deal]

11. Have you seen the ad?

It's a great ad.

http://clark04.com/ads/

[Kathleen04]

14. Yep.

Great ad.

[TrueAmerican]

5. Damn it

He should of used his time more wisely and debated in Iowa. If he is up 2 points after skipping the debates, he would of been up 10 points because not debating hurt him. :eyes: Because we were told by others, that Clark will hurt his campaign by not debating in Iowa.

[maxr4clark]

16. If he had debated in Iowa,

he might not have made gains in NH. I think not debating in Iowa kept him out of a fairly pointless fray, and let him make some progress. There have been plenty of debates.

[farmbo]

8. It's official...Clark hurts Kerry, not Dean.

Clark's numbers are taken, point by point, from John Kerry.

[Padraig18]

15. That's what I've maintained all along.

I find the attacks on Gov. Dean from some in the Kerry camp very puzzling for just that reason, since Sen. Kerry's declining numbers are almost point-for-point reflected in Gen. Clark's gains. :shrug:

[Mattforclark]

18. I don't think

that conclusion is appropriate based on the evidence. It is very probably much more complicated than all support for any candidate coming from another candidate, and with Dean down and Clark up at the same time, I can't find much basis for that. I don't see how it is possible to tell.

[Kahuna]

25. Wait a minute! Wasn't Dean at 45% a month ago???

What happened to THOSE nine points?

[Padraig18]

26. It depends on what poll you reference, AND ...

... 'tighteninng of support' is a completely normal phenomenon in primary races.

:shrug:

[Kahuna]

28. ARG! I compare apples with apples...

That's the only way to do it.

[Padraig18]

32. Great!

It's nice to meet someone who doesn't use the 'this poll says but that one says' line of argument! :hi:

Still, a tightening of support or 'narrowing' of X vs. Y is not unusual in primary races. What I've noticed is that the # of 'undecideds' is slowly decreasing, yet the comparatives margins between Dean and everyone else reamin essentially the same, give or take a few points.

[Kahuna]

36. Okay...Okay... Since you're so...

sweet, I'm not gonna argue with you today... :D :hi:

[Padraig18]

I am the soul of reason.

Hehe! :)

[Kahuna]

39. You're okay! It was rough going months ago,,,

but I've come to see you for your true self. I hope you can say the same for me. :D

[Padraig18]

55. I do.

Like many Dean supporters and gov. Dean himself, I push back when pushed---but ONLY then. :)

[PROGRESSIVE1]

10. Go Clark Go! President Wesley Clark!!!!!!!! It's great to see.....

the momentum going with him!


Clark for America

:kick:

[maxr4clark]

13. I'm happy with the result for Clark, too, but

the main message I see in the long-term tracking results is Kerry's support in NH dwindling. Note that Gephardt and Lieberman make modest gains as well, not in the most recent poll but as a longer trend.

I'll be happier if Clark stays at or over 16% for a few more track points.

[grannylib]

17. I think he helped himself skipping the 'debate.' It got low viewership;

more people saw Clark on TV doing his thing in NH than watched the debate. Clark also seems to be doing fairly well in not bashing the other Democratic candidates, and I think that's a good thing; I know I am tired of hearing it, the media loves it, and so do the Repiglicans when we waste energy beating up on each other rather than Chimpy and his cronies.

[Hawkeye-X]

46. No it didn't

MTP got about 150,000 viewers.

the last debate had about 15M viewers.

Big fucking difference.

[glarius]

20. Clark is closing in!

I'm getting a better and better feeling about Clark....I've been impressed by him since I first saw him and have felt that the media and the Republicans were consciously ignoring him as a contender because they were afraid of him....He has just kept on steadily making appearances on Meet the Press and other shows and has displayed his competance and winability! IMO

[Kahuna]

24. Maybe bushco's terror alerts are helping Clark..

I always thought they would since it puts national security back, front and center as an election issue.

[in_cog_ni_to]

31. Shhhhhhh!

Don't tell the RNC or Limbaugh! ;)

[Kahuna]

37. Yeah right.

:spank:

[in_cog_ni_to]

29. I will not gloat, I will not gloat, I will not gloat..

But I will say, EXCELLENT job Wes! :bounce::bounce:

This is just awesome. The man is incredible and OTHER people, other than we political junkies, are finally seeing it. That's all it takes is for someone to take the time to go to a town hall meeting, a pancake breakfast or a fundraiser. He does the rest just by being himself. :loveya:

[OKNancy]

38. I will

but not to my fellow Democrats but to those talkinghead pundit types that said a month ago that Clark was kaput, dead, no factor and on and on. Shows what they know.

Nada absolutamente nada.

[Kahuna]

44. I observed Sunday that Donna Brazile didn't look too happy..

But it's too early to gloat. A couple of months ago she and I were going at it over her denuciations of Clark. I won't contact her again until Clark has at least one primary win under his belt.

[maddezmom]

47. noticed that myself :)

[DancingBear]

30. "That's great news!"

sorry, couldn't resist . :)

I've just put a call in to friends of mine working Cheshire County (southern NH) for Clark. I'm looking for some first hand accounts, and when I get them I'll post the comments.

edit: Clark has two big town hall gatherings in CC today (Keene and Peterborough), so it may be a while before someone returns my call.

[John_H]

33. This needs to be taken along with Kerry's surge in IA

First, we Clark supporters should realize that Kerry will het a huge bounce if he finishes second in IA, and there is still a lot of work to be done in NH.

But these two pieces of info taken together spell big trouble for Howard Dean--a close three way race in IA and a win in his back yard with Clark in second means there is no frontrunner. Not even the most loyal Rove-ho will be able to credibly make the case that there is.

What will happen is Lieberman goes bye bye. If Clark continues to do a good job getting his name and face recogition up to the others and he takes the lion's share of Lieberman's voters, Clark could sew it up with big wins in the south and perhaps an endorsement fueled win in NY.

Even if Dean wins in NY, the Delegate count is even going into the midwest and west.

[Padraig18]

34. Kerry 'surge' in Iowa.

I keep hearing about this Kerry 'surge', but have yet to see anything whatsoever in terms of polling data to butress the notion that there even is such a beast. In point of fact, the people I know on the ground in Iowa tell me that Kerry's campaign is, if anything, tanking. :shrug:

[Kahuna]

43. Those terror alerts may be helping Kerry too..

We shall see.

[DancingBear]

45. Oh, and I'll bet they're impartial

:) (just funnin')

I, too, have not seen demonstrable evidence as of yet, but I (at this point) take the word of the news folks on the ground. Who else is there?

[Kahuna]

41. True... The fight is by no means over...

And, a strong finish in IA for Kerry may inject some life in his campaign.

[OhioStateProgressive]

35. any reason why the sample pool decreases every day?(nt)

[SahaleArm]

40. Depends on how cheap they feel - It's been up and down...

since the beginning:

617 622 623 620 630 624 631 622 619 613

Statistical variance isn't large on +/- 20 people out of 600+.

[OhioStateProgressive]

42. i understand that, i just wondered if it was going to continue to shrink

maybe start to drift off very slowly so as less people might notice?

[Mattforclark]

50. Not everyone takes the poll

I would guess that they are probably doing the same sample size, but they get different numbers of people who don't flat out hang up on the pollsters.

[poskonig]

48. Good news for Clark!

After obtaining the second place finish in NH, you'll be in great shape to go against us in the Dean campaign on February 3rd.

[DoveTurnedHawk]

49. Thanks Poskonig

Cheers to you!

:toast:

DTH

[Bread and Circus]

51. Hot Damn! Keep it up, Wes!

[WI_DEM]

52. well that is pretty good

too bad he skipped Iowa though, because the winner there will gain some traction in NH whether it be Gephardt or Dean.

[adamrsilva]

53. This is finally shaping up to be the Dean v. Clark primary

battle we knew it would be.

Dean will win Iowa, which will really hurt Gephardt's chances, which helps both Dean and Clark.

Dean will win NH, but Clark will come in second, in part due to disenchantment with Kerry and undecideds against Dean.

Dean will have the momentum to win most of the primaries on Feb 3, but Clark will make a strong number 2 showing, including beating Edwards for SC, and no one else will win any primaries.

Dean and Clark will be locked in a bitter struggle for the rest of the month, and it won't be decided until March 2.

Now I am a Dean supporter, and I think he will ultimately win because of his early momentum, grassroots organization, and money, but Clark can give him a run for his money for sure.

[Mattforclark]

54. kick