I'm Increasingly Convinced the Election Will Hang On

[On the Road]

the debates.

After the conventions, the only forum that will reach massive numbers of people and directly affect voters' perceptions or energize marginal supporters is the debates. Debates often trigger swings in support, and this year it's particularly important.

Kerry has to set absolutely the right tone. He will be under the microscope not to be too strident, wishy-washy, aloof, or whatever. As Gore showed, winning the debates is not enough. He has to score decisively like Clinton or Reagan. Creating a negative moment for Bush would be even better.

Kerry can do it. He's good. He just needs go into the debates with an understanding of what scores points with viewers and not just try to be a regal-looking war hero.

[The_Casual_Observer]

1. That's why bush will only do two debates!

He is trying to limit his exposure to reality.

[Cobalt Violet]

2. I wouldn't be suprised if he back out of one or two of them too.

He know he needs to limits the people access to his unscripted speech. He has to keep hecklers away from him while campaigning or he will probably flip out big time.

[giant_robot]

3. I think almost everybody has made up their minds

and the election will hang on voter turnout. The debates won't sway the converted, even if Dubya drools and pisses himself. Fortunately, I think our side will enjoy a huge advantage in voter turnout.

[On the Road]

4. I Think Turnout is Still to be Decided

A lot of potential Dem voters are not motivated by Kerry's campaign so far. The GOP has funded a massive GOTV drive this year, which may or may not work. Although the number of potential swing voters is smaller, it's large enough to decide the election.

[Tomee450]

5. I hate to be a pessimist.

Even if Kerry wins, the media will say he lost. The media trashed Gore's performance even though he won those debates. We are in deep trouble in this country. We have a right wing media that is determined that the Republicans win. Just look at what is happening today. Mr. Bush's guard service is not being discussed. Everything is now about whether the documents are forgeries. An MSNBC anchor just said (to paraphrase) that if the documents are forgeries the Vietnam discussion goes out the window.

[On the Road]

6. Don't be a Fatalist

Clinton was attacked just as much as Gore, and yet he probably won the election in the debates.

A questioner in a town-hall setting asked Bush Sr. whether he understood the problems of regular people. Bush said "I don't think that's fair" and gave a terrible answer which reinforced his image of being out of touch. Clinton, during his turn, walked over to the edge of the stage, looked directly at the woman, and said "I was the governor of a small state and I've talked with many people who had the problems you're expressing. When I'm president, I will......."

At that point, I believe Clinton landed a decisive blow. Kerry is capable of doing the same -- he just has to have the right goals going in.

[AmerDem]

7. Debates it is and if you want proof just look at

shrub hiring none other then good ole boy and family friend James Baker! You know him, he is the one who orchestrated shrub's appointment as president in 2000.

If anything else, I want Kerry in office so he can throw the full weight of our justice system at these band of crooks. Just like he did during Iran Contra!