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Have the raw EXIT polling data ever been released?

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mistertrickster Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-30-08 10:14 PM
Original message
Have the raw EXIT polling data ever been released?
It'd be interesting to see how the exit polling looks this time since in 2004 it inexplicably skewed Democratic according to the Punditocracy.

Strangely, they'll gladly tell you how "women over 50 who drive red Fords" voted, but just try to find out if the exit polls matched the official results.

I can't find it.

The Edison-Mitofsky website just talks about how hard they worked. Nothing there of value that I could find.
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HowHasItComeToThis Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-30-08 10:25 PM
Response to Original message
1. I CALLED MITOSPHY ON THE PHONE
SAID I SHOULD NOT DOUBT HIM.

HE IS A SHILL FOR SURE
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Zynx Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-30-08 10:30 PM
Response to Original message
2. Considering how we lost only one really close state, I am inclined to say things went reasonably
well.
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mistertrickster Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Dec-01-08 04:58 PM
Response to Reply #2
3. Yeah, that's what I'm wondering too . . . if the exit polls were accurate this time,
that would raise more questions about why they were so inaccurate last time.
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Zynx Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Dec-02-08 04:50 PM
Response to Reply #3
4. The "early" exit polls in 2004 were so out of whack with pre-election polls that I
am inclined to say there was something wrong with them in 2004. Pre-election polls showed almost exactly what happened.
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Nederland Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Dec-02-08 04:55 PM
Response to Original message
5. No and it never will be
Exit polling firms understand now that the general public's inability to understand the basic tenets of statistics make releasing that information a really bad idea. If they did, the losing side would always find an irrational reason to cry foul.
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mistertrickster Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Dec-03-08 12:25 PM
Response to Reply #5
6. But the basic tenet of statistics is that the part, if it is well-sampled, represents the whole.
Seeing the raw data from this election and past elections would really help to answer some questions.
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Nederland Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Dec-03-08 12:36 PM
Response to Reply #6
7. Here is the probem
You can never know if exit polls are "well sampled". All exit pollsters weight their exit polls to match what they "think" represents the whole, but nobody really knows what that whole looks like. Thus the endless arguing over what the proper weighting should be. Everyone argrees that you have to weight the raw results (except for a few clueless people at DU), but what that weighting should be is extremely difficult to determine.
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mistertrickster Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Dec-04-08 12:41 AM
Response to Reply #7
8. If it's so difficult, how can anyone ever have any confidence that the exit polls say anything?
If it is so difficult to weight the polls accurately, then why did the US insist that the exit polls in Georgia (the country, not the US state) indicated election fraud?
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