First step is the would be challenger has to be somebody who has a lot of power and personal support. They need to go around and round up votes before anything is even announced, lobby for the position as it were. Only when it's looking like there would be enough support to mount a serious challenge would official word get out and then it's on. Reid and challenger (along with their respective supporters) go around raising as much support as possible.
This is machine politics. Rarely does a vote having to do with the political machine hold any surprises, such is usually settled before official votes are cast.
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