NH-Sen: Carol Shea-Porter to run for Senate?

[ccharles000]

Interesting - while Democrats have been expecting (and hoping) that New Hampshire Rep. Paul Hodes would run for the United States Senate in 2010 against incumbent Republican Sen. Judd Gregg, PolitickerNH's James Pindell reports that the state's other Representative may be interested in a run as well, which comes as something of a surprise:

For the last few weeks Congresswoman Carol Shea-Porter has been exploring a run for the U.S. Senate and indications are that she is growing increasingly serious about it. In fact, there is the belief among some that she could even announce an exploratory committee in the next few weeks, several Democratic sources say, though those closer to her dismiss the it off hand.

Nevertheless, her agressiveness is something of a shock to many Democrats and particularly to associates of fellow Democratic Congressman Paul Hodes. Hodes had made it known last year that he was at least interested at a run in 2010 against Republican incumbent Judd Gregg though he was unsure whether or not he will run.

But while Hodes evaluates the pros and cons of a run, Shea-Porter has been more pro-active. She has a new consultant and she has hardly been quiet about soliciting advice on topic.

While it is striking some as a bold move -- possibly even brazen -- Shea-Porter has been making the argument that she is better Senate candidate than Hodes because she has been in tighter contests and won them. She also uses the fact that she has won despite long odds before. And then there is Manchester, the state's largest city, where she won all 12 wards a month ago.

Hmmm.

Shea-Porter surprised everyone with her 2006 win over incumbent Republican Rep. Jeb Bradley, and she survived a tough battle for reelection against Bradley in 2008, winning 52% to 46%. There's no doubt she's improved considerably as a candidate and fundraiser over the past two years.

That said, 52% isn't all that impressive, particularly considering that this was a Democratic year, Obama actually did slightly better in the district (in a state where John McCain has been exceptionally popular), and the DCCC spent vats of money bailing Shea-Porter out this year - $2.5 million.

The argument credited to Shea-Porter is a bit of an odd one - that since she's been in close races before and won them, she's better prepared for a tough race. That's true, but Paul Hodes has proven a superior vote-getter, winning his 2006 race by 8 points and his 2008 race by 15. He's been successful enough on his own, for example, that the DCCC didn't have to bail him out this year.

Generally, Shea-Porter's fundraising has been weak, and she hasn't won by margins that instill confidence in her taking on an entrenched opponent like Judd Gregg, who has served as a Congressman, Governor, and Senator since 1980. Granted, Shea-Porter has shocked the world before. But Hodes would still be a safer and stronger pick, between the two of them.

Hodes is likely the first name on DSCC Chairman Robert Menendez' list for New Hampshire (assuming Gov. John Lynch is out, which seems likely and is just as well). Again, it would be a mistake to count Shea-Porter out given her past record, but I'd be more optimistic with Hodes as the candidate.

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/12/13/1302/1278/799/672473

[PBS Poll-435]

1. This is what primary fights are for, I guess.

Carol Shea-Porter was a "Blue-Wave" candidate in '06.

She was re-elected in 2008 with a pinch less than 52%.

Is she the best to fight ol' Judd?






She might be.

[ClarkUSA]

2. Count on President Obama to campaign ... she endorsed O despite most state pols going to Hillary

Team O will be there for her, no doubt, as will his email list.

[SoxFan]

4. Paul and Carol were both Obama backers

That signifies a change in direction in NH Democratic politics. The old guard party leadership-Kathy Sullivan, Ray Buckley, the Shaheens, Sylvia Larsen, etc-were with Hillary, while most of the newer activists and those who haven't been part of the party apparatus were with Obama.

Either Paul or Carol would make a good candidate for the Senate seat. Judd Gregg brings to mind the old line about being born on third base and thinking you hit a triple.

[ClarkUSA]

6. Yeah, Team O supporters will support either of them because they stood up when it really counted

She travelled the state on behalf of Women For Obama, as I recall. I didn't read much about Hodes doing the same but maybe he did?
Shea-Porter is also a former grassroots leader during the Clark04 campaign, so I feel a kinship with her since most of Clark's "old
guard" netroots supporters veered strongly into the Hillary camp, expressing open displeasure and disappointment with Carol
that she endorsed Obama. Old guard vs. new guard is a good way of looking at the upcoming changing of the guard. Wonder if
Billly Shaheen has an inauguration ticket? I'll bet he won't get near Obama.

All's well that ends well, though. :)

[SoxFan]

7. Hodes endorsed O in the spring of 2007

He was a national co-chair of the campaign. Carol made it official right after the Oprah rally at the Verizon Wireless Arena in December, but her team had been telegraphing her support before that point.

[ClarkUSA]

8. Nice. So, how vulnerable do you think NH's GOP Senate seat is?

I know it's hard to tell at the moment given there's still two years to go but since you seem to know what's going on,
it'd be interesting to hear your viewpoint.

[SoxFan]

9. Gregg has rarely been seriously challenged

Look at what he has faced over the years:

1980 (House): Nashua Mayor Mo Arel. A decent candidate, but the district was hopelessly GOP back then

1982: Can't remember who ran against him

1984 (House): Larry Converse, a back-bench state rep from Claremont with no fundraising ability.

1986 (House): Laurence Craig-Green, a poet with a beard that made him look like a refugee from a jam band festival.

1988 (Governor): Paul McEachern, a former state rep, city councilor, and aide to Gov. Gallen, a good guy but running in a very Republican year.

1990 (Governor): Joe Grandmaison, the hyper-partisan state Dem chairman. Had State Sen. Bob Preston won the nominatoon (he lost by less than 1%), he likely would have beaten Gregg.

1992 (Senate): John Rauh. Rauh, a millionaire, came up about a percent short.

1998 (Senate): George Condodemetraky, an unknown activist with Blago hair.

2004 (Senate): Doris Haddock, better known as campaign finance crusader grany D. Granny D is one of the coolest people I've ever met, but she was in way over her head. She entered the race at the last minute, after state senator Burt Cohen withdrew when his campaign manager cleaned out the campaign bank account and skipped town.

[ClarkUSA]

11. So, what do you think Hodes' or Shea-Porter's chances would be?

They'd be well-financed via the DSCC and Team O, and there'd be no shortage of grassroots fervor... and just wait
until President Obama visits the state again! :)

[SoxFan]

3. Lynch would never run for Senate

Doing so would require him to actually take a stance on issues. That might jeopardize his precious approval rating.

[graywarrior]

5. Hmmm, I will be seeing her on Jan 19 in North Conway

She'll probably talk about it

[CTLawGuy]

10. two problems with the logic in this article

1. Carol's district is the more conservative district. It is filled with anti-tax suburbanites who commute to Boston. It is the home of conservative, wealthy Rockingham County. Hodes' district consists of more liberal counties bordering VT, liberal Concord, Nashua, and the blue collar, northern, Coos county. She had a harder road than he did to win.

2. Carol was running against the former incumbent, Jeb Bradley, in 2008, while Hodes ran against an unknown. So of course Hodes is gonig to do better than Shea-Porter.

Here is why I think Carol might be better than Hodes (though I think only Lynch could beat Gregg):

1. Carol is already well known in the more conservative parts of the state. The rest of the state should be easier to campaign in becuase it is more liberal. By contrast, Hodes would have to make inroads in the conservative portion of the state, which could be hard.

2. As the first district is more conservative, in 2010, unlikely to be a dem year, we are more likely to lose it, and keep the 2nd. So why not take a chance with her than possibly lose two house seats by putting an unknown dem in the 2nd?

[Parche]

12. Hey

:hug:

either one will win