My thoughts on the 2012 Electoral Reapportionment: Good news for Democrats

[darius15]

http://www.census.gov/Press-Release/www/releases/archives/population/013049.html

The Census Bureau came out , which means the electoral map is going to change in 2012.

I'll go state by state:

ARIZONA (+1 or +2)

This is great for us. If this wasn't McCain's home state, it would be as close as Missouri, North Carolina, and Indiana. More population from the Northeast will make this state even bluer. It will be a prime swing state in 2012.

CALIFORNIA (no change or -1)

Will remain a blue state.

FLORIDA (+1 or +2)

This state is getting bluer since people from the Northeast are moving here. Soon, the state may even become a lean democratic state.

GEORGIA (+1)

As this state becomes more urban, it only gets better for us. This state will be the first Deep South state to become Democratic.

ILLINOIS (no change or -1)

It will still remain a blue state.

IOWA (-1)

Still will be an important swing state in 2012.

LOUISIANA (-1)

This state will remain red, as Hurricane Katrina displaced much of the urban Democratic population.

MASSACHUSETTS (-1)

Will remain blue.

MICHIGAN (-1)

The auto industry caused many residents to move. However, the state should still be a Democratic state. Obama won here by 17 points despite the loss of population.

MINNESOTA (no change or -1)

Interesting to watch. The state still leans slightly Democratic, but if population from Democratic pockets starts leaving the state, it could become a new swing state.

MISSOURI (no change or -1)

The state has definitely gotten redder, as the rural population now encompasses more power in politics than the two Democratic cities. Bellwether no longer.

NEVADA (+1)

Now a lean Democratic state due to the high Hispanic population. Great news for Democrats!

NEW JERSEY (-1)

Will still remain a blue state.

NEW YORK (-1 or -2)

Despite the loss of EV's, it will remain blue as long as NYC remains as big as it is.

NORTH CAROLINA (no change or +1)

New residents from the Northeast were a crucial part of North Carolina turning blue this election. Although the state still leans Republican, that can change, and NC can become a prime swing state in 2012.

OHIO (-2)

The state will likely get a little bit redder. However, its electoral clout will diminish, and states like Virginia and North Carolina and Arizona will be paid much more attention to.

OREGON (no change or +1)

Fascinating to see how well Obama did here. The state is now safely Democratic.

PENNSYLVANIA (-1 or -2)

Despite the loss, the state leans Democratic. No loss for Democrats.

SOUTH CAROLINA (no change or +1)

I'm surprised people didn't talk about this more. Obama came within single digits here. Although the state is still red, the more urban it becomes, the more it will resemble Georgia, and the less it will resemble Alabama or Mississippi.

TEXAS (+3 or +4)

In a 50\50 election, the state would go to the Republican by 15 points. It will not go blue in 2012 unless we have a landslide, but in 20 years, who knows?

UTAH (+1)

As long as the state remains heavily Mormon, we can forget about it on the presidential level. But, Democrats may have some good chances at the local level if the state turns more purple.

WASHINGTON (no change or +1)

Safely Democratic.





All in all, this is pretty good for Democrats. The blue states remain blue, while the states that are Republican are getting more purple. The new battleground is not so much the Rust Belt anymore (OH, PA, MI, IN) , but the West (AZ, CO, NV, NM)

[Posteritatis]

1. Good or not for either party, I likes me some proper representation

The important thing is that people get the amount of seats they should have due to the latest census. If that turns out to be good for the Democrats (which seems mostly to be the case from what you said), that's a bonus. If a conservative state picked up a bunch more seats, though, that's just more cause for Democrats to get over there and try to change some minds, which - much like proper representation according to population - is not something I could ever mind happening.