The National Exit Poll must match the official vote count — come hell or high water ( TIA ) - x

[tiptoe]

Assume you had the full set of the Preliminary National Exit Poll results that showed Obama winning with a 57.8% vote share. ... The poll results differ sharply from the official vote count that has Obama winning 52.34%.  But the National Exit Poll Final results must match the official vote count — come hell or high water.  It’s standard operating procedure: pollsters alter exit poll data to be the same as the election results.  How would you go about it?
...
There are two possibilities:
...

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The National Exit Poll must match the official vote count — come hell or high water

 

[mucifer]

1. some people lie to pollsters.

[mistertrickster]

6. But even lying is random . . . they would lie equally on both sides. nt

[mucifer]

7. It's fairly close.

[bluestateguy]

2. I still think that it is possible that Obama voters are more likely to talk to exit pollsters

Obama voters were enthusiastic for their candidate, they were proud to support him and spread the word. McCain voters were ho-hum about their man, and grumpy about his prospects as a candidate or as a president. McCain voters also have a distrust of the media that even eclipses that of people on the Left, leading some of them to shun exit pollsters.

In 2004, Mitofsky used a lot of younger graduate students to do exit polling. They often broke rules concerning random sampling and may have encountered unwillingness to participate by older (Bush) voters.

[tiptoe]

10. E-M wrote in 2005 about preparing staff better. Presumably, such an "issue" had been

addressed for 2008. One thing is certainly different: Election-day Preliminary exit poll results have been withheld.

Vote share figures for "Voted in 2004" example-category used in full article (4,195 respondents, 1.5% MoE) would be reproducible by independent surveys and, thus, might be constrained in manipulability for the purpose of matching the recorded vote. Voter Mix adjustments -- the weightings of 'New' and returning-2004-voters -- could be expected to carry the major 'forcing' burden. And the mix adjustments found necessary for making a vote-count-match in the Final NEP not only result in mathematical impossibilities (37% returning-Kerry /46% returning-Bush, using 2004 recorded vote totals, 4-5% mortality, and allowing high turnout) but also inherently refute any "overly-enthusiastic" Obama-respondent hypothesis (just as 'rbr' was refuted in 2004).

Obama won the last three Registered Voter pre-election polls, after allocating Undecided Voters, by 55.5–43.0%. He won the final 12 Likely Voter pre-election polls by an average of 53.8–44.7%. RV polls are more realistic than LV polls, because Likely Voter polls understate 'New' voters.  September data from (just 28) reporting-states indicate how important 'New' voters would be this election:

Nationally, more than 2 million Democrats have been added to the rolls in the 28 states that register voters according to party affiliation, according to the Associated Press. Republicans have lost nearly 344,000 thousand voters in the same states during the same period.

Moreover, after election day, Obama has been winning more than 10 million "late recorded votes" by 59.2%–37.5%.

See
2008 Landslide Denied: A Summary of Statistical Anomalies
and
Did Obama actually win by 20 million votes?

But the Final NEP is always ‘forced’ to match the Recorded Vote-Count, right? So why should we even bother to conjecture about the motivation of returning voters?

[Buzz Clik]

3. Didn't we already do this thread earlier today?

[Uzybone]

4. Why have elections then?

Just do a poll on Nov 4th and be done with it. Polls are notoriously unreliable. Not that I trust our voting process, but to insist that actual votes match an exit poll is ridiculous.

[tiptoe]

11. Wrong question, and you might have mis-inferred from the OP title:

The "insistence" is by the contracted, professional pollster -- not the OP source author -- that Final Exit Polls always match the recorded vote count. (And that is more than "ridiculous"!) See "Pollsters Alter Exit Poll Data to be the Same as Election Results"

The question isn't "Why have elections then? Just do a poll..." but, rather:

"Why allow non-transparent, private corporation/trade-secret-controlled elections?"

"...full transparency, and no private corporations involved in our election system in any way."

 

[EconomicLiberal]

5. Enough with this bullshit.

Preliminary exit polls are notoriously unreliable.

[grantcart]

8. Its nice to have a full time hobby

[mistertrickster]

9. And this is based on what evidence?

Not only that, but "non-preliminary" exit polls are the best check we have on the election itself.

See the "Orange Revolution" in the Ukraine:

(from Wiki) Protests began on the eve of the second round of voting, as the official count differed markedly from exit poll results which gave Yushchenko up to an 11% lead, while official results gave the election win to Yanukovych by 3%. While Yanukovych supporters have claimed that Yushchenko's connections to the Ukrainian media explain this disparity, the Yushchenko team publicized evidence of many incidents of electoral fraud in favor of the government-backed Yanukovych, witnessed by many local and foreign observers. These accusations were reinforced by similar allegations, though at a lesser scale, during the first presidential run of October 31.

[tiptoe]

12. The BS that ultimately matters...

...are the fraudulent vote counts in American elections.

Secondary BS is the matching of Final Exit Polls to those fraudulent vote counts, election after election.

The pristine, unadjusted, precinct-level initial Preliminary exit poll at least is NOT forced to match a fraudulent recorded-and-reported vote count and is NOT used to legitimate election fraud, fraudulently-elected leadership and ensuing fraud-based policies, appointments, wars, "values"-and-murders-in-the-name-of-the-American-people.

Your bullshit target is GROSSLY amiss.



See, too:   Willful Denial, Arrogance and Stupidity  (Time for change)

 

[Zynx]

13. No poll showed any result that would have 57.8% more likely than the 53% Obama got.

I'm sick of this crap.

[tiptoe]

14. Of course, you'd allocate Undecided Voters before asserting that?...as Gallup, Harris, et al would??

When Decided...


This poll (Registered Voters) caused a stir when it came out a week before the election:

 

Obama

McCain

Other

Spread

PEW 10/26 1325 RV

52

36

12

16

But I've seen PEW allocate "Other" 50/50
(instead of 75% to lesser-known/"challenger" Obama and 25% to long-known/"Running for Bush's 3rd term" McCain)
...which would only project to 58–42 Obama, a 16-pt projected margin.

http://www.minnpost.com/politicalagenda/2008/10/28/4141/new_pew_poll_obama_52_mccain_36
A Pew poll hot off the presses has the prez race Obama 52, McCain 36 among registered voters, 53-38 among likely voters...

Must be an outlier, huh?

...But perhaps the most intriguing finding is that, of those Pew interviewed, 15 percent had already voted and among that segment, it was Obama by 53–34.

That would be a 19-pt lead amongst for Obama amongst people who already voted prior to Election Day.


Again, unlike in 2004, Edison-Mitofsky chose NOT to release the Preliminary Exit Poll results, only the Final Exit Poll, which is always corrupted by having been 'forced to match' the recorded vote count.

 

[Zynx]

15. That was using one poll that wasn't Pew's last poll.

I can cherry-pick my way to anything I want.

[tiptoe]

16. The cherry-picking would be between the 10/26 *RV* poll and an 11/1 *LV* poll by Pew,

with the former Registered Voter poll including new-voter registrants (which heavily favored Democrats in 2008, by a minimum-margin of at least 2.3 million) and the latter Likely Voter poll being an over-sampling of Republicans, because not inclusive of new registrants. Obama carried New Voters by 71% – 27% – 2%.

 

 

Obama

McCain

Undecided/
Other

Undecided Voter Not Allocated:

Pew 11/1

LV

49

42

9

Pew 10/26

RV

52

36

12

 

 

Obama

McCain

Other

Undecided Voters Allocated @75% Obama:

Pew 11/1

LV

54.25

43.75

2.0

Pew 10/26

RV

58

38

4

Pew allocated @50% ( http://www.pollingreport.com/wh08gen2.htm ):

Pew 11/1

LV

52

46

2.0

Pew 10/26

RV

56

40

4

 

[Zynx]

17. There's a big difference between allocating undecided voters and new voters.

There is no evidence Obama carried undecided voters by 75-25.