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Edited on Wed Sep-15-04 11:16 AM by WI_DEM
I'm sensing that the worst is over. The media, seems to go in cycles. Bush was riding high for the longest time, then he began to get increased scrutiny and his poll ratings began to go down. Kerry has had a month and a half of absolutely negative coverage and now I sense that it is beginning to balance out in the last few days with the debate over Bush's service in the National Guard and the Kitty Kelley book and an increased attack on Bush's policies at home and abroad by Kerry and Edwards. The news out of Iraq the last couple of days has been horrible. I think the pendulum is swinging back.
Considering we have just endured six weeks of non-stop negative attacks on Kerry he is actually in pretty good shape to begin his comeback prior to the debates which begin later this month. Bush's gains in the polls have mainly been in strengthening "red" states. Kerry is still, according to Rasmussen, Zogby, Fox, and other pollsters still leading in the "battleground" states and while his leads have slipped in some "blue" states it has stabilized and as the partisan divide re-opens Kerry will begin to expand his leads in states like California, New York and New Jersey to at least match the Gore numbers from 2000.
In the battlegrounds we have work to do, but let's face it they are called "battleground" states for a reason--the leads will switch back and forth and they will be evenly divided.
Pennsylvania--very close according to which poll you look at it is Kerry by a point or Bush by a point.
Michigan--While most other battlegrounds show Kerry losing some ground, Michigan has been pretty solid--he still leads by six points according to both Rasmussen and Gallup. If after six weeks of abuse Kerry still leads here by six--he probably will do very well in November--proabably better than Gore.
Ohio--Gallup has Bush up by 8--Rasmussen daily tracking has consistently the race as dead even. The fact that Kerry is putting so much time and effort (and money) here indicates that their private polls must indicate a close race as well.
Florida--SUSA comes out with a poll showing Bush up by six--big deal. Rasmussen shows the race very close between Bush and Kerry. Kerry has yet to spend alot of time there due to the natural disasters. Bush has been giving the state a ton of money and his brother is governor responding to hurricanes, ect. There is probably expected to be a small spike in Bush's favor. It won't last. This one will, like 2000, go down to the wire. In 2000 many polls had Gore down by 7-10 points in Florida.
Wisconsin--Again panic time becuz Gallup comes out with a survey giving Bush a 8-point lead. Rasmussen actually shows a small improvement for Kerry--behind by two points--rather than three which he was behind in August. Again it is too close to call, but so too was it in 2000--remember Gore won by only 5,000 votes. We have a secret weapond too--Feingold. Progressives of all stripes will come out for Russ. He will do well with Independents. The base will turnout not for a love of Kerry, but because they want Russ to win. But Kerry will benefit becuz 99% of them will also vote for Kerry.
Furthermore recent polls show that Kerry is actually in a better position at this time in states like Oregon, Washington, Iowa, New Mexico and Minnesota than Gore was in 2000. That is very promising. While everybody was freaking out over the Florida poll from SUSA they also had an encouraging poll from Nevada--only four points down. After these six weeks to be down only four points in Nevada and five points in Viriginia is very promising.
With the stepped up attacks on Bush by Kerry and Edwards and at least three debates to look forward to--John Kerry is beginning his comeback and by this time next month--the press will be singing another tune--"Can Bush comeback?"
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