Specter has ‘strong incentive’ to leave the Republican Party.

[Cash_thatswhatiwant]

With former Rep. Pat Toomey (R-PA), who currently heads the right-wing Club for Growth, announcing that he will challenge Sen. Arlen Specter (R-PA) in a primary battle for his Senate seat in 2010, The Hill is reporting that Specter now has a “strong incentive to abandon his party this year.” Specter barely beat Toomey in 2004 and 2010 looks to be a much tougher fight:

Pennsylvania political experts say that Specter would likely face a more difficult challenge in 2010 because the Republican primary electorate in Pennsylvania has become more conservative.

“I think he has a lot of problems,” said Terry Madonna, a professor of political science at Franklin and Marshall College in Lancaster, Pa. “I think this is the test of lifetime.”

Madonna estimated that between 150,000 to 200,000 centrist Republicans switched registration to the Democratic Party in the 2008 election cycle, leaving the remaining GOP electorate more conservative.

If Specter were to lose to Toomey in the primary, he would not be able to run as an independent under Pennsylvania election law.

http://thinkprogress.org/2009/03/07/specter-switch-party/

[Wickerman]

1. Come on aboard, Arlen

its a big tent and though we rarely agree I've actually caught you making sense on occasion.

[Kingofalldems]

3. I'll take Specter over Lieberman any day

Can we make a trade with the repubs?

[camera obscura]

2. Not sure how to feel about this. it would be a huge blow to the Republicans but it may hurt us too

Unless Specter would agree to vote the party line, it would be better for us to run a reliable Democrat.

[Jackpine Radical]

5. If I had the ear of the Dem Congressional leaders, I'd advise them

to tell Arlen that if he jumps now rather than waiting, and if he continues to back Obama's Master Plan, we'll support & finance his 2010 run. If he waits, we'll run a primary opponent against him. We need all the Dems we can get RIGHT NOW.

[Captain Hilts]

4. He still personifies the Thomas-Hill hearings to me. He'll lose in the general because of age. nt

[Jackpine Radical]

6. There's a way for him to win.

He can win as a Dem, with the full backing of the party, against a conservative R.

See my suggestion of how to do this above.

[Captain Hilts]

7. I did. I think that age and health issues will work against him no matter which party he runs for.

[creeksneakers2]

8. It would be a good time for Arlen to retire

Perhaps he will. A switch from Arlen to D would make 60 votes (assuming Franken). No matter which Arlen chooses, Ds will pick up Arlen's seat because Toomey would definitely lose the general, unless the public mood changes drastically against Democrats.

[AllentownJake]

9. No thanks, as a Pennsylvanian

Letting Specter be primaried out and forced into retirement and allowing a younger moderate democrat to be Toomey's opponent gives us a moderate democrat in our caucus who might go a couple terms not a moderate republican who might die during his term.

We have no clue how the Govenor's race is going to play out. That office seems to switch party every 8 years regardless of performance or lack of performance of the incumbent. Specter becomes a democrat wins re-election and we have a puke govenor means I get a puke sensator.

[Pirate Smile]

18. What Dems are considering running for the Senate seat?

[AllentownJake]

20. Rumors are Patrick Murphy and Allyson Schwartz

I'm sure once Toomey announces there will be 2 more that want to throw their hat in the ring.

I wanted Sestak to run but he's been saying he's not considering it.

[Pirate Smile]

25. I've never heard of Schwartz. I like Murphy.

[Drunken Irishman]

10. I could see Specter running as an I, spliting the Dem vote and giving the seat to Toomey.

[AllentownJake]

13. Yep worse case scenario

If he decides to run as an I he would peel away moderate democrats, not moderate republicans (there are none left)

[w4rma]

11. I'd rather he just retire. (nt)

[WeDidIt]

12. An "I" won't cut it

HE either goes all the way to D or he loses.

Plain and simple, he cannot win as a Republan and he cannot win as an Independent. His only choice is to becoem a full fledged Democrat or retire.

[Arkana]

14. Specter's no Democrat.

But he's an old-school Republican, one who is capable of providing respectful opposition to Democrats without turning into a frothing-at-the-mouth lunatic.

I don't think he'd fit in the Democratic Party--I think way too many of his views are out of line, but I wouldn't begrudge him running as an Independent who caucuses with us.

[mvd]

22. I agree

Specter votes with his party over 60% of the time - PA Democrats would want a real Democrat.

[ShadowLiberal]

27. Specter was once a democrat, but switched parties to avoid a primary on the democratic side

He switched to run unopposed for district attorney in Philadelphia I believe, and won the general election.

In my opinion Specter's sort of more of a moderate opportunist politician, kind of like Bloomberg.

[Skidmore]

15. So Specter has voted with Dems a handful of times, that does not

make him in line with the Democratic Party agenda or policies. The last thing we need is another Lieberman type.

[Arkana]

16. He'd be worse.

Lieberman's only an ass on foreign policy--on domestic issues he's more liberal than a lot of Dems.

[alcibiades_mystery]

17. Conservatives can't win statewide in Pennsylvania anymore

This is a you-pick-em. Even a no-name Dem will trounce Toomey.

[sandnsea]

19. PA has to have a better Dem than Specter

No thank you.

[zbdent]

21. aaaaaaannnnd ... how many times has Spectre voiced opposition to

the party line, only to wind up voting WITH THE PARTY ???

Plenty ...

[Exilednight]

23. He may be better than Liebermann, but he still has a right wing heart ............

and should not be allowed on the Democratic primary ticket. Parties do have the authority to allow or disallow people for running for their nomination. Force him to run as an independent.

[AndrewP]

24. Not trying to off good old Arlen, but has had 2 cancer battles this term.

May have other issues to deal with besides electibility in getting to serve another term.

[ddeclue]

26. GOP=Circular Firing Squad

:crazy:

[LiberalFighter]

28. He might be able to circumvent that law if he changed his name after the primary.

Well... just a thought.

[Jennicut]

29. He needs to retire or run as a independent.

I don't see him a fully Dem but he is a moderate old style Repup of which there is like 3 left, him and the women from Maine. He has been willing to work with Obama and has been very respectful of Obama maybe even more so then more conservative Dems. I have not always agreed with him or liked him at times but he is better then even Loserman imo. If he does not retire then he should run as an independent who caucuses with Dems. His views do not fit in with the Repub party as we know it right now, he is like a Lincoln Chafee, a man without a party.

[saltpoint]

30. If Toomey would be the favorite in the GOP primary, wouldn't a Democrat

be the favorite in a Dem primary, should Specter switch sides?

My hope would be to field a strong Democratic candidate to defeat Toomey in a general and against whom Specter would not stand a chance in any Dem primary.

[tanyev]

31. He woke up with an elephant head in his bed?

[SKKY]

32. No thanks. Retirement would be a better option for you.

buh-bye...

[Vanje]

33. I wish for Specter

A very pleasant retirement.

This is an especially good time to have DEMOCRATS, serving as DEmocrats in the House and Senate.