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CT-Sen: Dodd Narrowly Leads Simmons; SSP Moves to "Lean Dem"

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ccharles000 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Mar-27-09 07:07 AM
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CT-Sen: Dodd Narrowly Leads Simmons; SSP Moves to "Lean Dem"
Research 2000 for Daily Kos (3/23-25, likely voters, no trendlines):

Chris Dodd (D-inc): 45
Rob Simmons (R): 40
Chris Dodd (D-inc): 51
Sam Caligiuri (R): 30

Chris Dodd (D-inc): 53
Larry Kudlow (R): 31

Ned Lamont (D): 30
Joe Lieberman (I-inc): 25
Jodi Rell (R): 42

Dick Blumenthal (D): 28
Joe Lieberman (I-inc): 25
Jodi Rell (R): 43
(MoE: 4%)

After the extended flap about what his role was in allowing payment of the AIG bonuses, conventional wisdom on Chris Dodd seemed to turn on a dime in the last week, as he suddenly went from being considered relatively safe to being considered a lame, if not dead, duck. Research 2000 acted quickly to get into the field in Connecticut and get the first post-AIG-gate poll of CT-Sen, and it looks like the CW may be overreacting a bit in sticking a fork in Dodd.

Dodd's favorables are still in positive territory, clocking in at 47-40. Dodd is also beating all his GOP rivals, including ex-Rep. Rob Simmons (who edged Dodd out by a point in a recent but pre-AIG Quinnipiac poll) by a 5-point margin. He's in the below-50% danger zone against Simmons though, and he's also uncomfortably close to 50 against little-known state senator Sam Caligiuri. (R2K also polls CNBC bobblehead Larry Kudlow, who last night ruled out a run.)

While it looks like we can put the fork back in the drawer, Dodd's position is still precarious enough that Swing State Project is downgrading CT-Sen to "Lean Democratic." AIG might be starting to recede in the nation's rear-view mirror, but in his position as the Senate's lead Dem on banking issues, he's in a highly-visible hot seat for any further Wall Street scandals and crises... and if his last week is any indication, he's gotten kind of rusty at dodging incoming fire. Simmons also remains a popular figure with a lot of upside; his favorables are 41-18.

This poll's also a two-fer, as we look ahead to 2012. The good news is: Joe Lieberman fares poorly against both AG Dick Blumenthal and 2006 candidate Ned Lamont, narrowly trailing each of them. The bad news is: this is a three-way race, and if Republican governor Jodi Rell decides to jump in, she beats all of them handily. (Rell has favorables in the Mother Theresa/Joan of Arc realm, at 71-20.) It's way too early to tell if Rell is interested in taking this route, though, and she certainly shouldn't be considered "generic R," as there's a pretty steep falloff to whatever else is on the GOP's bench.


http://www.swingstateproject.com/
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Robbins Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Mar-27-09 08:32 AM
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1. CT
Dodd's problems are largely because of the AIG and Banking problems.But,If things Improve he should survive.Even So will CT voters
vote for a Republican who will opposse Obama and his agenda when they voted for him In landslide.

This shows voters are not willing to forgive and forget Lieberman.

Rell may look good now but If she runs she has to run against Obama and his agenda.Her success as Governor Is she Is a moderate
Republican but that can change running as a national Republican.CT Is a blue state.

Ned Lamont apparently would be the strongest Dem If he doesn't run for Governor.
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genna Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Mar-27-09 11:27 AM
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2. Dodd will also be facing the other side too.
Regular man is irritated with doing something that is against our best interest. The ones who are going to be regulated are angry that he will place them in a straight jacket of integrated rules which reaches all these creative derivative ideas.

This piece stood out:

http://money.cnn.com/2009/03/27/news/economy/whitford_dodd.fortune/index.htm?postversion=2009032707

-snip-
However, Dodd also played a crucial role in the 1999 passage of the deregulatory Gramm-Leach-Bliley Act, which dismantled key provisions of the Depression-era Glass-Steagall Act, breaking down barriers among commercial banks, investment banks, and insurance companies. In fact, according to Ed Yingling, head of the American Bankers Association, Dodd was the bill's unsung hero. "It was about to die," says Yingling, "because Phil Gramm, on a side issue, was just hardballing it. There were seven or eight of us who were chief lobbyists for the industries. What we were saying was, 'We're running out of time. If we can get Chris Dodd in the room, we can work it out.'" They got Dodd, and Dodd got it done, but Dodd doesn't like to talk about it anymore. Not when he's trying to rebuild vital parts of the same regulatory framework he helped knock down. "I regret we didn't pay more attention to this at the time," he admits. "We're not going to go back and rewrite that. We want to be able to have those kinds of efficiencies in the system. But clearly the division between commerce and banking - that needs to be a bright line."

-snip-
The legislative challenge Dodd faces has three parts: (1) to acknowledge after decades of steady deregulation that unchecked "faith in the marketplace" is no longer warranted; (2) to replace said faith with a modern system of rules and regulations that guarantees there will be no more catastrophic meltdowns; and (3) to somehow accomplish No. 2 without sucking all the creativity and imagination out of the American financial services industry.

Some of this has been tried before. After the S&L crisis, and again after Enron, Congress drafted and passed pieces of legislation to reform the system around the edges, notably the Sarbanes-Oxley Act of 2002. But the complexities have been too mind-numbing to streamline and modernize the patchwork of agencies that has sprung up since the Civil War to oversee aspects of the financial system (see chart). "It was too heavy a lift, with a lot of lobbying to keep the status quo and no populist aspect to it at all," says a Senate aide who's been working on those issues for 20 years.

That word - "populist" - holds a clue to what Dodd has in store. It is too soon to say what kind of legislative raw material his committee will be dealing with when the time comes. Treasury Secretary Geithner outlined his proposal on March 26 on Capitol Hill, but the details still have to be worked out. For Dodd, regulatory reform starts with consumer protection. He introduced a predatory-lending bill last session that would protect homeowners from mortgages they could never hope to repay, the principle being that consumers are the canaries in the coal mine when it comes to systemic risk. Protect them, and you'll protect the system. "It won't be a question of people making choices," Dodd says, describing what he has in mind. "There will just be banned activities."

Like the administration, Dodd wants to empower a "systemic-risk regulator" - probably the Fed, although Dodd worries about compromising the central bank's independence and may want to involve other agencies - to monitor the health of the financial system as a whole; incredibly, no institution does that now. He's looking at how to align Wall Street incentives with the long-term health of an enterprise rather than short-term personal gain (hence his emphasis on curtailing bonuses). And he wants to find a way to link all the parties in the loan-securitization process so that everyone has some skin in the game - no more rogue brokers collecting signatures on blatantly toxic assets and handing off the risk to the next guy.

But his starting point in all this is that what needs robust protection is not so much banks but the customers they serve. Whether that means a federal clearinghouse for exotic financial products - "so that people actually know what these things are" - or something like a financial products safety commission, akin to the Food and Drug Administration, he hasn't decided yet. The bottom line, as one staffer puts it, is that Dodd sees the current fiscal calamity as a "spectacular failure of consumer protection."
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