Politico: Obama referendum: no winner, one loser (Guess Who)

[jefferson_dem]

The Politico rag gets it right this one time.

Obama referendum: no winner, one loser
By: Josh Kraushaar and Charles Mahtesian
April 1, 2009 04:46 AM EST



SARATOGA SPRINGS, N.Y. – There’s no winner yet in the Upstate New York special election and it might be mid-April before the race is settled. But a few things are clearer after Tuesday’s contest, none of it welcome news to the Republican Party.

The first election to take place during the Obama administration was a push, with neither side winning big or losing big. But that in itself ranks as a defeat of sorts for the GOP, which invested heavily in the race.

Republicans made this race a referendum on President Obama, his stimulus plan and big government policies. But voters divided almost exactly down the middle, showing almost no sign they wanted to brush back the new administration. And this is precisely the kind of place where it would have been obvious had voters been so inclined—a Republican-leaning, small-town district that voted for Obama in 2008.

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It was the psychological component to Tuesday’s contest which made it significant. For the GOP, the long road back to power has to start somewhere, and a seat like this one with a 70,000 Republican voter registration advantage was the logical place to begin.

After all, if the party can’t win with a head start like that, on the heels of the AIG bonuses furor and a massive expansion of federal spending, where can it win?

For that reason Republicans bet heavily on the race, with Republican National Committee Michael Steele pumping money and resources into the district, and the National Republican Congressional Committee pouring in $818,000 on top of that. Their efforts were aided by conservative groups, led by the National Republican Trust PAC, which spent an additional $819,000.

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http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0309/20748.html

[obiwan]

1. Tie game. Bad news for the GOP in a red district.

If this is a referendum on Obama, then the GOP lost this game, big time.

[ErinBerin84]

2. the GOP consists of such freaking whiners

According to the Hill, Republicans are "warning" Murphy not to "pull a Franken"(!) and "steal the election".

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2009/04/01/gop-democrats-trying-to-p_n_181686.html

"The Hill:

National Republicans are warning prospective donors that Democrats are trying to "pull a Franken" and "steal" Tuesday's special election in upstate New York.

Republicans made the charges in a fundraising email sent out early Wednesday morning after a too-close-to-call finish in the New York House race between Democrat Scott Murphy and Republican Jim Tedisco."






Here's a take in the New Republic about how, even if the GOP pulls off a win in this one, the GOP's attempt to somehow make it a referendum on Obama and fear of Democrat spending, etc, failed.

http://blogs.tnr.com/tnr/blogs/the_plank/archive/2009/03/31/vote-of-confidence-murphy-refutes-murphy-s-law.aspx


Vote of Confidence: Murphy Refutes Murphy's Law

When the 6,000 absentee votes are counted in the next week, Republican State Assemblyman Jim Tedesco might emerge the winner over Democrat Scott Murphy in the race to fill Kirsten Gillibrand’s upstate New York House seat. But make no mistake about it: Murphy’s election night edge of 65 is a vote of confidence for President Barack Obama and his economic program. It means the coming struggle for passage of his budget will be a little easier than it might have been.

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In the first month of the campaign, Murphy, a businessman from Missouri who recently moved to the district, trailed Tedesco--and since Republicans boast a 70,000 voter edge in registration, he should not have been able to catch him. But based on a campaign that emphasized his support for Obama, he did catch up and on election night surpassed him.

Murphy’s election night edge doesn’t suggest that the Democrats will romp in 2010. Too many things can happen in the meantime. But if Murphy had lost by a significant margin--say 56 to 44 percent--it would have shown that within a district that Obama carried in 2008, there was a significant undercurrent of discontent with his presidency and his policies. That would have emboldened Obama’s opponents.

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Murphy’s election night edge is going to give Obama’s Republican opponents--and perhaps some of his Democratic doubters--pause before they try to block his budget. Obama's not home free, but he and his administration can breathe a little easier.