Race, the South and 2010

[ccharles000]

A look at President Obama's polling numbers in the South, as well as the electoral results from November 2008, indicate that his popularity still lags there, behind even that of other prominent national Democrats. His performance among rural white Southern voters, in particular, was one of the few disappointments in a genuinely impressive electoral victory, and has frequently been chalked up in part to his race.

Nevertheless, at least three African-Americans will be attempting statewide runs, and possibly a fourth, in states in which Obama lost, occasionally by margins as wide or even wider than Al Gore and John Kerry did.

Confirmed for gubernatorial runs are Alabama Rep. Artur Davis and Georgia Attorney General Thurbert Baker, both Democrats. Preparing a run for the Senate is Texas Railroad Commissioner Michael Williams, a Republican. Finally, another potential gubernatorial candidate is former Tennessee Rep. Harold Ford Jr., a Democrat (he appears to be considering the race, but apparently hasn't decided whether to run, and is widely expected not to).

Despite an overwhelming victory nationwide - one in which he made major inroads into the South by winning the states of Virginia and North Carolina - President Obama lost all of the above states; he ran quite well in Georgia for a Democrat, but lost 53-47.

He underperformed John Kerry in Tennessee, and barely outperformed Kerry in Alabama (where he got only 10% of the white vote, barely half of what Kerry drew). His performance in those states has frequently been attributed somewhat to his race.

So is it possible for black candidates to win election to the two highest statewide elected offices - the Governorship and the United States Senate - in these four states?

It very probably is, at least in theory. There's a chance that none of these candidates will be successful in their bids (in all probability, Ford isn't even going to run).

You can't really compare past runs in one Southern state to future runs in another - obviously, not all Southern states are the same, or close to it! - but for background, here are the five most serious runs by African-Americans for Governor or Senate in the past twenty years.

The first one was actually a successful one - it was Doug Wilder's run for Governor of Virginia in 1989. Wilder, formerly a state senator and Lieutenant Governor, was the first African-American elected Governor of any American state...and at a time when Virginia was still a solidly Republican state at the presidential level.

The following year, in 1990, Harvey Gantt, the Democratic mayor of Charlotte, North Carolina, ran for the United States Senate against Jesse Helms. Gantt was very competitive in the polls with Helms (one of the most polarizing politicians in U.S. history), and a lot of people thought Gantt would win.

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2009/4/5/716913/-Race,-the-South-and-2010

[poboyross]

1. Down here in TN.....

I don't know of anyone personally who has a problem with race as a matter of voting. For me, it's not a race issue but from what political family do they originate and do their values match mine. As a self described Teddy Roosevelt type conservative, I would definitely consider voting for Harold Ford Jr. He's a good man with good values that match up on the broad brush strokes with people on both sides, at least in West TN. He would have to distance himself from some of his (literally) crazy and race baiting relatives. His uncle went nuts and sped through the streets of Memphis popping off a pistol into the air! Nothing happened to him legally, probably due to Willie Herenton...another wonderful example of Blago/Stevens politics. This last Mayoral election, since Harold Ford Jr. didn't challenge Willie (I wish he had), the only other contenders were the two Republicans, neither of which would bow out for the other. One was a woman who seemed to have as many black dems voting for her as white Republicans. The other guy (white, too) took the other part of the Repubs. Together, their votes outnumbered Willie's....but because it was split, Willie won...Yay...more corruption! They spent the better part of last year prosecuting almost everyone in his administration for crimes.

My vague point in that little digression was that none of us in this area cared about race unless someone like Herenton was using it as a wedge. People here are tired of racial politics. Hell, most of us are 35 and under, in part which is why Mr. Ford would do so well. He doesn't play that race crap on either side, he's a straight shooter, and realizes that so much of what's going on today is petty. He'd likely have my vote.

[BlooInBloo]

3. (facepalm)

[poboyross]

13. and that means....sarcasm?

[grantcart]

8. Harold Ford is a wonderful man with a brilliant mind

You will find that he is deeply loved here because we are all afraid that President Obama is going to go way too far to the left and we need cautious apologists of the gentry to help keep him 'realistic' and not change anything too much.

Oh and welcome to DU and enjoy your stay.

[poboyross]

14. Gotta love the love....

Nothing wrong with liking a man who can be a lefty without being polarizing...isn't that the point of being a good politician? That you can espouse your views such that you convince others to vote for you beyond half a dozen percentage points? I find it interesting that just because I classify myself with a "conservative" label in any way, that it's met with horror. The fact that my portion of blue isn't perceived to be "true" blue is met with thick and "clever" sarcasm. Don't worry though, I have been enjoying my stay and have found quite a number who have been quite nice...you know...dem dar gays n black folks has been mighty nice to a po white country boy likes me. Please....

And as it relates to what about Obama not being from a political family, I was just referring to the fact that so many politicians down here are part of pol families that is how they are often judged. It's hard sometimes to a person to separate themselves from a corrupt cloth, and Mr. Ford has done an excellent job at it. We were hoping that he would run and beat Corker.

[skooooo]

18. Harold Ford sux

DLC

But I'm sure you were being sarcastic.

[Kalyke]

27. Except, if he doesn't run, a Democrat has no shot in hell at winning

in Tennessee, even though we currently have a fairly popular Democrat as governor.

The problem is two-fold here:

1. The Dems are infighting between the conservatives and the moderate-to-liberals and, most importantly;
2. The national party seems to have forgotten this state exists. We have no money coming in to offset all the rightwing radio we have - and that's all we have outside of Memphis, which is already left-leaning.

[butterfly77]

40. I'll second that..

[grantcart]

43. I disagree

Harold Ford Blows


I consider it a miracle that my TV has survived his mealy mouth paternalistic bull shit. I prefer an honest conservative who presents their point of view with a degree of common sense and humility than this pompous ass who is in deep love with his own voice. Never has conceit had less reason to find a home.

[poboyross]

44. LOL....brilliant!

I know you're serious about not liking him, and that's fine. But your adjective filled description just made me laugh when I read it/pictured him speaking on TV. "Mealy mouthed"....hilarious. I think he had the pinnacle of his high-horse moment several years back; that is unless I've missed seeing something lately. He did get knocked down a few pegs. By my perception, he was slated to be the "Obama of Memphis" before Obama became big news. I think he originally had good intent, but got swept up too much. Now he's back down to where he was before, hopefully.

I don't think anyone is honest anymore, at least in politics. This will probably sound cheesy, but it brings to mind that commercial where it says "What if firefighters were in charge?" Most honest people are busy working and trying to take care of their families; all while dealing with chronic "pre-existing" medical conditions for which they can't get medical care.

[Mayberry Machiavelli]

11. What about candidates who aren't from a political "family" like President Obama?

:shrug:

[Top Cat]

2. Some in the south would rather go to bed with the devil than to vote for a black man

that's the problem.

[Kalyke]

28. Some in ANY part of the United States would rather go to bed

with the devil than vote for a black man.

Or did Stanton Heights, PA suddenly become a Southern city and Richard Poplawski, a racist, suddenly become a Southerner?

http://www.post-gazette.com/pg/09096/960938-100.stm


I really think regional bias is as bad as racial bias.

[genna]

31. It is tough when you leave the south and have to adjust your accent

so you don't get that look: You are too smart to be from the south.


I don't know if a regional bias is anywhere near a racial bias. I would say the north-south divide from years past needs to be set aside. The industries which fueled employment in the south has dried up. This region needs better leadership which will bring better employment opportunities.

[Kalyke]

34. I agree it needs better leadership.

I'm all but beside myself at the lack of organization in the Democratic Party in my state - and the fact that the national party seems to have forgotten we exist (and voted for Clinton, twice). It's frustrating to know that all the right-wing talking points around here are going unchallenged by the Democratic Party's refusal to put any cash into the Tennessee coffers.

But, as for the accent - I don't adjust it. Most men think it's adorable and I get free drinks. LOL. Still, I've never had anyone treat me as unintelligent because what I say is more important than how I say it.

[CTLawGuy]

48. sounds like

"we should ignore a cluster of cancer cases in one town, because cancer happens everywhere."

[Divine Discontent]

4. interesting read, thanks ccharles!

I don't see a minority candidate for major office winning in those states unless they are extraordinary and stand out as an amazing person, sadly, but with every qualified candidate of whatever race, gender, sexuality that comes and loses or wins, we break down walls.

hope you're well.

Divine Discontent (formerly themartyred)

[BlooInBloo]

5. Bigots are reproducing at low enough rate, that the most relevant question now is...

Have enough old bigots died yet?

[Number23]

6. Black politicians in Georgia aren't that big of deal

Atlanta, my hometown, has had black mayors and city councilmen/women for 30+ years. And lots of other cities like Albany have had lots of black representation.

However, the rest of Georgia is the real issue. It's the Forsyth Counties, Milledgevilles, Houston (pronounced house-ton) counties that will be tricky.

I'm pulling for Baker and hope that I'll be able to do an absentee ballot for him soon. Thanks, ccharles for posting this. Happy to rec

ETA: Peach Pundit does some "pundit-ing" on Baker here - http://www.peachpundit.com/2009/04/02/bill-shipp-calls-thurbert-baker-a-weak-candidate/

[Liberal_Stalwart71]

9. I was raised in Downtown Decatur, perhaps the most liberal city in the entire South.

And still I believe that the South has a very long way to go. It's just not ready. And Baker is great, but he doesn't stand a chance; I don't care how smart or *conservative* he is. :(

[Number23]

10. Really?? You think it's that bad for him there?

I haven't been in Georgia in 9 years so I have no idea what the locals think of Baker. Do you really think it's hopeless for him??

[Liberal_Stalwart71]

23. Yep. If Obama couldn't win the state despite his popularity, then neither can Baker.

Sadly outside of the immediate Atlanta metro, there are still people who are disengaged from politics. I went down there to help out with the Jim Martin run-off election, and I couldn't believe the pervasive ignorance and/or lack of interest in the political system. Worse than that, the bigots are always mobilized and ready for action. If we could get that same enthusiasm for our candidates, we could win, but the bigots/racists are in full force and they will do any and everything possible to maintain their presence. Bottom line, nothing will change until that population dies off and/or our side grows and mobilizes.

[Number23]

47. Thanks, L_S. I have to say that is damn disappointing though

If nothing else, I would have thought that Obama's candidacy would have activated black involvement in politics, particularly in places like Georgia. And I guess I'm still hopeful that will happen...

[genna]

32. I hadn't noticed a large number of state elected black politicians in Georgia

The county executive in black in Decatur and the mayor in Atlanta is black. The leadership in the other Atlanta counties (besides Fulton and Decatur) aren't necessarily black.

I hadn't noticed large success in the rest of Georgia. What pocket of advancement are you thinking of?

[Number23]

46. Wasn't thinking of a "pocket of advancement"

When I lived in little Macon, GA 15 years ago, there were black elected officials. And I already mentioned Atlanta and Albany. There are others as well.

This may provide a bit more info for you - http://www.gabeo.org/

[mkultra]

7. race is still an issue for some democrats

the long standing family democrats weren't to friendly with blacks during the civil rights era.

[Drunken Irishman]

12. Obama is winning in the parts of the south that matter.

Virginia, Florida and North Carolina. By 2012, maybe he can get enough support to flip Georgia, but I think it's obvious Obama's strengths are the northeast, midwest and west. The south? Maybe the New South, but the rest won't hurt him nationally.

[ccharles000]

15. I hope NC(where I live)goes for Obama again.

[Hawaii Hiker]

17. I don;t think Obama even needs the south - in 2012, I think he can realistically

win Missouri (only lost it to McCain by about 4,000 votes), Montana, & Arizona (where Obama received 45% of the vote despite it being McCain's home state)...

[Drunken Irishman]

19. That's just the thing...

As it stands now, Republicans are faced with a shrinking electoral map because they're losing in places that once were solidly in their column. People like to talk up the south, but it won't matter a lick if the Republicans lose the west for good. The west is seeing far bigger growth than many southern states and they're going to hold the keys to the White House. As of right now, that favors Obama and the Democrats because of the demographic shifts and if the Republicans keep playing up to their Xenophobic base, well, it's only going to kill them off even more.

Texas? That's trending Democratic.
Arizona? That's trending Democratic.
Montana? That's trending Democratic.

In 2012 or 2016, I would not be surprised if the only far-west states that went Republican were Utah, Wyoming and Idaho and even those will trend Democratic (especially Utah, since it has one of the fastest growing Hispanic populations in the country).

[ccharles000]

20. I would love to see Utah go blue

[Hawaii Hiker]

21. It will be interesting to see the electoral vote changes in 2012

with regards to the census, which will change the electoral votes of some states....Florida, Texas, & Arizona will likely see in increase in their EV's.....I hope Califorina does to, as people are ALWAYS flocking there...Maybe they'll have 57 (from 55) EV's next election....

[Drunken Irishman]

22. I'd be shocked if California doesn't gain EVs.

The funny thing is, a few years ago all the talk about the Democratic strongholds in the northeast losing voters proved the demise of the Democratic Party (or so they said), except what they didn't realize is that all those Democrats were moving to southern & western states, bringing them more into the mainstream. That's a big reason why the Republicans are in trouble, because the movement is shifting the political foundation in many of these once conservative states.

I mean, back in the 60s, 70s and 80s, the west was dominated by libertarian Republicans and they rarely went Democratic (even California, at least nationally).

Kennedy only carried one western state in 1960 (Nevada).

LBJ carried a boatload, but most of that was because he won in a landslide over a candidate who was painted as an extremist.

Humphrey managed to carry one western state in 1968 (Washington).

McGovern carried zero western states in 1972.

Carter carried zero western states in 1976.

Carter carried zero western states in 1980.

Mondale carried zero western states in 1984.

Dukakis carried only two western states in 1988 (Oregon and Washington).

Clinton carried seven western states, including California (the first Democrat since LBJ) in 1992.

Clinton carried six western states in 1996.

Gore carried four western states in 2000.

Kerry carried three western states in 2004.

Obama carried six western states in 2008.

What you saw in 1992 was a fundamental change in the western voting patterns. California, which had been a swing state that leaned Republican, solidly went Democratic and it hasn't looked back. Washington and Oregon were the first signs of the Republican hold on the west weakening, as Dukakis managed to carry both in 1988, even though Bush I won in a landslide.

Even after Clinton's second term win, the Democrats still had a healthy margin, especially in the bigger states and the states they lost, all were by narrow margins. You could see what Obama did in the west last year coming from a mile away, since Colorado, Nevada and New Mexico were on the cusp of shifting.

My prediction:

New Mexico will solidify itself as a strong Democratic state in 2012. Colorado & Nevada will be on the cusp, but might still be contested (Colorado more so than Nevada).

If that happens, it's hard to see a map that favors the Republicans. I mean, John McCain was a westerner and he could still swing only 25 electoral votes out of the west. Obama? 92.

[Bluenorthwest]

24. Actually, for a few years now

many more people have moved out of CA than have moved into CA. Over a hundred thousand a year more leave than arrive. Of course they still make babies in CA, so the population is not draining away, but the idea that people flock to CA in droves is no longer true. It is seen as expensive, over croweded, polluted, and lacking in jobs.
Just saying. More leave Ca than arrive, at least 3 years in a row now.

[cwcwmack]

25. no not true...

California is LOSING it's population of voting residents.

California's population is ONLY growing due to immigrants most of which have no right to vote.

[Hawaii Hiker]

38. Really?, I thought places like Riverside were seeing a boom,

plus there will ALWAYS be people moving to LA to try to make it in the entertainment world...

http://www.realestaterama.com/2008/03/27/10-fastest-growing-us-cities-ID04033.html

[genna]

33. Dean said all 50 states matter. Obama went to as many places as he could

to impact the presidential race as well as the local races.


Why throw away these southern states when people have been listening to Republican drivel for 50 years? What happened to the notion that every person can benefit from what the Democrats have to offer?


It takes a while to deprogram people.

[trof]

16. Obama at about 50-50 approval in Alabama. (link)

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=1042b5f1-c12e-43e1-8dad-cd1c644903e3

I don't think Artur Davis will get the Democratic nomination.
More likely current Lt. Gov. James Folsum, Jr.
He stepped up from Lt. Gov. a few years back to serve the balance of corrupt and convicted Gov. Guy Hunt's term.
Plus he still has big name recognition for his father, Big Jim Folsum.

[Robbins]

26. 2012

If things continue going as they are Republicans are deluding themselves If they think they can beat President Obama.If white
democrats who supported Bill Clinton In southern States like Kentuckey,Arkansas,and West Virginia are willing to vote for Obama(something that could be more likely If Mitt Romney Is the republican nominee)than Republicans have any further trouble.And when
you consider Obama got 47 percent of the vote In Georgia when he didn't campagin there In the fall and only run ads In the last
week then Georgia could join Virginia,North Carolana,and Florida as southern Obama states.

Survey USA has Presient Obama with a 57 percent approval here In Missouri.Mccain was just barely able to win here and that was
because Republicans were able to get the rural voters out with the BS of Obama as a Socialist who pals around with Terrorists and
who IS a muslim.Imagne how bad It will be for them If Missouri,Iowa,and Indiana are go Democratic In 2012.

The West Is moving more Democratic.New Mexico(with Obama won by 15 Percent) and Nevada(with Obama won by 12 Percent) are turning
Into more Democratic states.There was a time where California was a Republican state and both Oregon and Washinton State leaned
Republican.Obama got 45 percent In Arizona which was Mccain's state and he didn't campagin there(except for a ad during the last week) so It Is likely to be In play.Montanna Is another state that could possibly flip In 2012.Mccain only beat President Obama by
2 percent.

Of course If Republicans nominate Palin who knows how bad it could be.The Dakotas and Texas might them became battlegrounds.NAd with Romney will Southern Christin fantics vote for a Morman.They might stay home when the choice Is a moman or a Black man.

[Liberal_Stalwart71]

29. Democrats will undoubtedly have a major advantage due to Census numbers.

This country's minority populations are growing as alarming rates. Hence the reason John Gibson was calling for white people to procreate more: http://mediamatters.org/items/200605120006

Republicans are in trouble, even in reliably conservative areas in Texas and North Carolina. Not only are blacks moving back to the South, the growth in the Hispanic/Latino community has been amazing. Unless Republicans can play on the homophobia that exists in the black and Hispanic communities or scare people about immigration concerns, they don't stand a chance. I'm saying this as a black woman. We need to address this homophobia, the issue of reproductive choice, and other social issues if we plan not to cede these discussions to the Republicans for them to exploit.

"What's the Matter With Kansas," lays the argument out quite effectively. Wedge issues work even in the midst of hard economic times. People will vote against their best economic well being if they are afraid enough. We've seen this time and time again. And it worked in Ohio in 2004, with a good number of blacks voting for George 'Dumbya' Bush because they sufficiently hated 'the gays'. I hope we will no longer be suckered by these goons.

[cwcwmack]

35. ahhh... NO

actually if the census was today...

Here are the PROJECTED changes in the Electoral College for 2012:

TEXAS +4
ARIZONA +2
FLORIDA +2
GEORGIA +1
NORTH CAROLINA +1
NEVADA +1
OREGON +1
SOUTH CAROLINA +1
UTAH +1

CALIFORNIA -1
IOWA -1
ILLINOIS -1
LOUISIANA -1
MASSACHUSSETS -1
MICHIGAN -1
MINNESOTA -1
MISSOURI -1
NEW JERSEY -1
NEW YORK -2
OHIO -2
PENNSYLVANIA -1

In reality... the Repugs will have approx. 8-10 more electoral votes for the same number of victorious states. Difference is... many red states are now a lovely purple.

[Liberal_Stalwart71]

39. How are you disagreeing with what I was suggesting? Electoral votes are based on population

growth, right? If most of that growth is coming from the Hispanic population, that clearly favors Democrats, not Republicans, particularly in RED states like TX, AZ, FL, and GA. The BLUE states you mention are still decidedly Democratic, even if they lose electoral votes. The other RED states are gaining population that favors the Democrats.

Can you explain your post? I think I get what you are saying, but I disagree that these changes favor Republicans. I don't think they do.

[cwcwmack]

45. sigh...

no. Experts have analyzed this and come to this conclusion. Please let me explain. Texas is not growing because of legal Hispanic Immigrants. Texas is growing because of Middle Class flight. You have middle-age to older folks in Illinois, California and New York moving to Texas for the climate and the cost of living.

Basically you have middle income folks moving to a place where the economy is better (little or no recession in Tx) and the COL is low. In North Dallas you can buy a 4000 sf 5+4 house for $275,000 (Collins Cty)

This isn't all bad... look at North Carolina, wonder why it went blue last year? Well because of liberal Middle Class working families from NY, PA, MD and NJ...

Your belief that a growing Hispanic population favors Dems is true, but not so much. You're talking about Hispanic citizens who turn 18 years old... that cast votes.

But in a state like Texas... you have millions of Hispanic youth that are too young to vote so the population goes up but they're not the voters... yet.

Think of it like this. Joe and Mary Smith and their 3 kids leave Los Angeles and move to Dallas. They buy a bigger house and put more money in the bank every month and their kids go to a better school.

Texas PICKS UP Electoral Vote "power" and California "loses" Electoral Vote "power"

In addition... experts predict California's population will GROW by 2010... but California will lose Electoral Votes, why? Citizens leave but underground immigrants come.

To clarify:

If President Obama wins in 2012 by the same state vs. state margin he did in 2008, he might win by 355 - 183 instead of 365-173... that's all. But if the election were close... like 00 and 04, it's enough to tip an election.

[Liberal_Stalwart71]

49. O.K. thanks. I appreciate the explanation, though I still disagree. I work with the Census

on a daily basis and the numbers tell a rather different story...one that politically favors Dems not Reps. I'm not sure what "experts" you are referring to, but the ones I'm referring to are renown political scientists like Larry Sabato and Alan Abramowitz who, by most accounts, are predicting that Dems are in a more electorally favorable position. And this especially since most state legislatures are majority Democratically controlled or expected to move in a BLUE direction starting in 2010.

By the way, I didn't think it was necessary for you to be so snarky in your post. It was very nasty, and I was not hostile towards you at all.

[cwcwmack]

50. sorry...

possibly too much caffeine that day (or not enuff?)

[Liberal_Stalwart71]

51. A nice bottle of RED will do ya some good!

:)

[genna]

36. I won't deny the bias in the older black community but

what are the numbers if you break down the age groups?

Does this include the difference between areas where there are large expressive gay communities like Atlanta versus the closeted gay communities (I'm thinking Chicago but maybe it has become welcoming to out black men and women recently)?


Do the numbers break down for church goers and non church goers?


I don't know as much about the Hispanic community. Perhaps their trends are the same as AAs. Is there a difference between Latino Catholics and all other Latino Christians?

[Liberal_Stalwart71]

41. I think the social and political culture are similar among all ages in the black community

Can't speak to the Hispanic/Latino community. But the homophobia is perhaps a bit more pronounced in the older generation.

But misogyny and homophobia in the black community go hand in hand, as evidenced by gangsta rap. Stereotypes about gay men, in particular, behaving like women and therefore sexism and homophobia go hand in hand. And I don't think the Black Church as an institution does enough to discredit these stereotypes, nor does it do enough to address the hypersexism that exists even within the church.

[NC_Nurse]

30. From what I've seen, GA is a lost cause. I have my doubts about AL too.

I hope I'm wrong, but this state is SO red. Makes me miss NC, but I have to admit I haven't gotten out much since I've been here.
Maybe there are more progressives than I know. I hope so.

[genna]

37. I think the difference here is Georgians say what is on their minds and in their hearts

If racism is there, it is spoken out loud AND in mixed company.

In other regions in the country, I think people learn how to button up.

[NC_Nurse]

42. I wasn't thinking of racism specifically. Just Republicanism. It's rampant.