CA-Gov: Brown Leads Primary Field

[ccharles000]

Tulchin Research (3/31-4/2, likely voters, no trendlines):

Jerry Brown (D): 31
Gavin Newsom (D): 16
Antonio Villaraigosa (D): 12
John Garamendi (D): 11
Jack O'Connell (D): 6
Other: 4
(MoE: 4.5%)
The rehabilitation of AG and former governor Jerry Brown continues apace; a new-ish poll from Tulchin Research gives Brown a 15-point lead over his nearest competition, San Francisco mayor Gavin Newsom. (I've never heard of Tulchin before, so although this has the trappings of a public poll, I'm wondering where it originated.) This is a slightly better showing for Brown than other recent polls of this race; two previous polls from February of Dianne Feinstein-free trials runs on the Dem primary gave Brown leads of 4 and 7 (from Field and Lake, respectively).

The poll has some interesting geographical and age crosstabs. The Bay Area and Central Valley are the only areas where Newson is competitive with Brown (Brown leads Newsom 30-26 in the SF market). You might expect LA mayor Antonio Villaraigosa to be competitive with Brown in the Los Angeles area, but he doesn't seem too popular on his own turf (Brown leads him 36-19 there), which explains his low numbers overall.

Also, as other polls have noted, this is all about age, and who remembers Brown from his first go-round. The youthful Newsom is kicking ass among the 18-39 crowd, beating Brown 29-16 (with Villaraigosa in second at 19). But Brown wins this on the backs of the 65+ demographic, where Brown beats Newson 38-8 (with John Garamendi at 16 and Villaraigosa at 13). With Garamendi's apparent withdrawal from the race, his relative strength among seniors suggests that his votes may migrate disproportionately to Brown too.

http://www.swingstateproject.com/showDiary.do?diaryId=4853

[floridablue]

1. I seriously doubt Cali. will elect a gay Governor.

[Garbo 2004]

3. Florida did. nt

[Wetzelbill]

4. which candidate is gay?

[Garbo 2004]

5. In the past there were rumors about Brown. I'm not aware that there was any substance to them.

But not like I was trying to find out or cared. When Brown was Gov his detractors called him all kinds of things.

[Mojambo]

6. Gavin Newsom. n/t

[Wetzelbill]

7. lol

Nice try, but I knew he was married.

[Mojambo]

8. Huh. I could have sworn he was gay.

My bad.

[Wetzelbill]

9. oh I thought you were messing with me

No he just married an actress recently. He used to be married to some Fox News chick I think too.

[Mojambo]

11. Nah. I wouldn't mess with Bill, The Modern Day Fishhooks McCarthy!

Honest mistake.

[Raine]

14. He also dated Linda Ronstadt (sp?)

when he was Governor.

[Garbo 2004]

10. Oh yeah, he had a sex scandal (hetero) & rehab stint. He's good to go. ;) nt

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

2. The first iteration of grassroots.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x309337

[Hippo_Tron]

12. Newsom would be better for the party than Brown

Brown is now in his 70's and wouldn't have much of a future in politics after the Governor's mansion (again). Put Newsom in the Governor's mansion and he will be a national presence and possibly even a future serious contender for the White House. At the very least it would put him in a position to succeed Feinstein.

[bottomtheweaver]

16. California has had two good governors in fifty years, Brown and Brown.

I'll take Jerry any day of the week.

[Hippo_Tron]

17. I'm not saying Newsom would be a better Governor

Just that he would be a better asset to the Democratic Party as Governor than Brown would be.

[Raine]

13. Governor "Medfly"

Pat Pukhannon has already started trotting out that old tale, he did today. x(

[bottomtheweaver]

15. Thanks for posting, hadn't heard.

Hey this is like senility without the unpleasant effects! Jerry was the best gov we've had since, well, since his father, who was the last good gov before Jerry. You get the picture!