A U.S Senate campaign may be tougher for Charlie Crist than some realize

[ccharles000]

Amid the meltdown of the 2009 session of the Florida Legislature, one theme that has resurfaced again and again is that Gov. Charlie Crist is not engaged and is already looking ahead to his next election - and his next job in the U.S. Senate.

Crist has not made his intentions publicly known yet - although the Capitol building is rife with speculation that it is a foregone conclusion that the governor will leave the governor's mansion in 2010. Some Republicans chafe at this suggestion, while other Republican legislators assume that Crist is in fact leaving.

But what may have gotten lost in translation is that a Crist bid for U.S. Senate should not be seen as automatic. There's no doubt he would become the instant front-runner but a Senate campaign would in fact be a bigger risk for Crist than running for re-election.

Consider some of these numbers:

* 7 as in 7 percent. That's how how much Crist beat Jim Davis by in the 2006 governor's race. While this is a decent margin, it's important to remember that Crist outraised Davis 3 to 1 in campaign contributions and had additional resources poured into the race by the Republican Party of Florida. Crist's fundraising machine will not have the same advantages in a U.S. Senate race because of federal restrictions on raising corporate dollars.

* 60 as in the magic number needed for firm Democratic control of the U.S. Senate. Would the Democratic National Committee be tempted to pour in millions into Florida in order to help President Barack Obama?

* 4.2 million vs. 2.5 million. That's how many more votes that Obama got in 2008 versus the number Crist received two years previously. Of course, there is always a higher turnout in a presidential election year. But what happens if the Democratic voting base is energized at the prospect of electing Florida's first black U.S. Senator - if Kendrick Meek gets the nomination - and the Republican conservative voting base is disenchanted with Crist. (Over the stimulus, over felons voting rights, over insurance, take your pick.)

http://findout.typepad.com/the_fine_print/2009/04/the-road-to-the-us-senate-may-not-be-the-easier-path-for-crist.html

[grantcart]

1. great job on keeping us informed about all of these races charles

[ChiciB1]

2. I've Been Seeing Your "Florida" Posts Lately & I THANK You... Are You A Floridian??

I've lived in this state for more years than I like to admit and I live in one of the "reddest" counties here. I live in the county that Katherine "Cruella" Harris decided to represent after her stint in 2000! It's a VERY difficult place to be as a Democrat... or maybe at times feeling more Independent. In reality I'm a LIBERAL, but my party doesn't reflect how I feel many times. BUT, you have to designate to vote.

I saw Kendrick Meek recently and he seems EXTREMELY confident about winning. Do you think he's got a chance in THIS state?? Mind you I remember when Bob Graham was Governor... geez, since I've been politically active since I was 11 I remember Reuben Askew as Governor!

Florida used to vote differently when I moved here, I guess you would say "yellow dog" back then, but I don't feel Bob Graham was all that DINO! But not as liveral as I for sure. I know I MISS him and I respected him. Still Florida is a VERY weird state and I hear Democrats saying Crist isn't so bad for a Repuke! Have the Repukes turned on him??

Yes, I KNOW I should be "onto" this like white on rice, but I find myself in the dumps so much and where I once blogged hours a day, now I may blog once a week if that.

I do thank you for the updates, but why are so many Democrats seemingly "happy" with him? Or is it just where I live, the place where we kinda/sorta lost 18,000 plus votes in 2006! Democrats here are very very "light" as far as I'm concerned and it's difficult for me to engage with them. I have done it many, many times but my frustration always rears it's head after our meetings!

Sorry for the rant... just need to blow every once in a while!

[ccharles000]

3. I live in NC but I find Florida very interesting.

I think meeks has a shot at winning.

[ChiciB1]

5. I Think NC Is A Beautiful State & Perhaps Not As Interesting As FL...

but there are times that this place drives me up the wall politically!!! Transplants voting not hardened either way, but now that the economy sucks I wonder how things will shake out!

Thanks again!

[Liberal_Stalwart71]

4. I hope you're right about this. I can't stand that fake-ass tanned Crist.

He's only *pretending* to be a moderate Republican because Obama is a popular president. Watch him change his tune should Obama's numbers/popularity decline in the next year or so.

He needs to cut the charade and come out of the closet, already. ;)

[Hippo_Tron]

6. I think Crist could have a tough road to the nomination

Undoubtedly the machinery and the NRSC will rally around him, but many on the far right consider him a RINO and the Club for Greed could easily make his life miserable by financing a wingnut to run against him in the primary. Crist might have to spend a lot of that cash just getting the Republican nomination.

[csziggy]

7. This point is very interesting - how much support FL can get from the DNC

"Would the Democratic National Committee be tempted to pour in millions into Florida in order to help President Barack Obama?"

Yes, and if the national and state party gauge things right, they will try to get a more progressive Democratic candidate in to counter Senator Bill Nelson. Nelson is Democratic, but just barely.

I am not sure if Crist can get whole hearted support from the Republicans. He has been far too sane and reasonable, willing to compromise and do what is right for the people rather than what the GOP wants done.

I would love to see Kendrick Meek get the nomination - I've liked what I have seen of him.