A PA active democrat's thoughts on Specter

[AllentownJake]

Two weeks ago I was ready to jump on the Shapiro for Senate campaign. As an Obama supporter Shapiro was one of the few democrats willing to buck the Rendell machine and endorse the future President in the primary. Than Sestak started talking and I got more conflicted, Sestak was a Hillary democrat, however, he's also very liberal in a very purple district. He also has military background that makes him untouchable to the GOP on national security issues.

Now we got Specter with a D behind his name. My support for Specter will be based on two things. 1) Health care and 2) the EFCA. If Arlen votes with the democrats on those two issues he will have my support. If he doesn't, I'm with a potential primary challenger.

I believe that Arlen will vote democratic on both issues. Simply put organized labor still has a lot of power in PA. If Specter bucks organized labor he will slit his own throat. Organized labor is the only force that can legitimately fight the established party in a primary. Money and busloads of canvassers will flow into PA from NY, NJ, and Ohio. So expect Specter to vote for cloture and present on EFCA.

[Hello_Kitty]

1. All he has to vote for is cloture. That's all.

He votes to end debate on EFCA and it's all good where he's concerned. I'm more worried about those other Blue Dog "Dem" Wall Street whores.

[Aloha Spirit]

2. I'm really curious what kind of amendments would garner a couple extra votes

for EFCA, specifically Lincoln.

[John Q. Citizen]

3. So you would vote against a potential primary challenger that was good on those two

issues and also on every other issue?

Why?

The very right wing GOP guy doesn't stand a chance. PA is trending blue. And a real Dem would vote yes on EFCA.

Who needs Specter?

[AllentownJake]

6. Frankly if he votes on those two issues

There will be no primary challenger.

Ed and TJ Rooney will put the word out supporting the challenger will result in repercussions amongst the party people.

The unions will back down.

It will be impossible for a Primary challenger to win. Ask Barack, how he did against the Rendell/Rooney machine in a 2008 primary.

[ErinBerin84]

4. thanks for posting, I was wondering if you would way in on this.

[question everything]

5. He already said that he will not vote for the EFCA

as an example of continuing being his own man.

As someone pointed out, he will be 80 (really?) on election day 2010, so a lot of things can happen until then. But meanwhile, let us welcome him in our party. Really, I think that this is the cherry on Obama 100 day cake.

[AllentownJake]

7. He said on March 17th that he won't become a democrat

This is a man that is prone to change his mind...especially when its in his own interest.

[MadBadger]

14. He also said today he is against EFCA

[AllentownJake]

17. The only people who could mount a succeful primary campaign against him

is Labor. Give it a month, and old Arlen will change.

[quiller4]

27. Expect that to change before the summer is out n/t

[ShadowLiberal]

29. Specter purposely left wiggleroom to change his position in his statement when he changed parties

I forget the wording exactly, but basically implied that certain parts were modified slightly he could support it. At least one labor spokesman has said they never stopped talking to Specter even after he had said he was going to oppose it earlier.

[AtomicKitten]

8. I agree. Any support in 2010 should be contingent upon how he votes. Period. n/t

[msongs]

9. why not elect a real democrat instead of an opportunist with expendable values? nt

[AllentownJake]

10. Its PA it is not possible

Ask Barack Obama what happens in a democratic primary when Ed Rendell backs your opponent.

Barack Obama and Ed Rendell will be backing Specter; no opponent has a chance.

[AtomicKitten]

11. Sestak is thinking about it. n/t

[AllentownJake]

12. Sestak would get his ass kicked by Specter

The democrats that vote for Specter are the same people that give shit loads of money to Sestak. Given the choice they are going to pick Specter.

A well funded grassroots campaign headlined by the most charismatic candidate in a generation got 45% against the democratic political machine here.

[AtomicKitten]

13. This Californian defers to your expertise on the state.

Yes we did see the full power of the party machine in Pennsylvania during the primary; it was formidable. Still I wish the support had been contingent upon Specter voting for some of the more progressive issues. That's how we will effect change. Oh well.

[AllentownJake]

15. From the Obama Campaign

I know first hand how hard they are to beat. There is a party machine in PA. Sometimes they get involved in primaries, other times they don't.

If the President says he backs Specter and Ed Rendell says he backs Specter, I don't see how anybody could beat Specter in a democratic primary.

Specter will be there for health care, and eventually for EFCA. The unions are about the only people in PA who could mount a successful primary campaign against Specter and possibly beat the party machine. Those are their two issues. Arlen is an opportunist and he'll flip on that within a month.

[AtomicKitten]

20. I'll be the first to applaud if Specter flips on EFCA!

:thumbsup:

[Muttocracy]

22. Biden's for EFCA so if he had a hand in this, maybe he's pushing Specter on it. nt

[angee_is_mad]

31. Prejudice was another reason

why Obama lost also wasn't it? I remember rendell saying that some voters would have a hard time voting for a black man. He got alot of flack about that and I believe he later apologized or clarified what he meant.

After the primary I haven't been able to look at PA the same way. Barack Obama's campaign brought the Good and the Bad in a lot of people. But Good always overcome bad!
Hell, he won my state, NC.

[Muttocracy]

18. Is Specter's seniority part of the issue - he can get more done for PA? nt

[AllentownJake]

21. No

Its really all about who King Eddie likes. Also the President has vowed to support him.

So in reality, other than labor, there is no faction of the democratic party for a candidate to get any oxygen.

[BlooInBloo]

16. Are you aware that Snarlin Arlen has claimed that he will remain against EFCA?

"My change in party affiliation does not mean that I will be a party-line voter any more for the Democrats that I have been for the Republicans. Unlike Senator Jeffords’ switch which changed party control, I will not be an automatic 60th vote for cloture. For example, my position on Employees Free Choice (Card Check) will not change."

http://www.americablog.com/2009/04/number-for-today-brought-to-you-by.html

[AllentownJake]

19. March 17th

I will not leave the Republican Party.

The Unions are the only force in PA that can possibly beat Ed Rendell.

[Aloha Spirit]

23. Jake, I just started reading this article Specter wrote for a Law Review last year on Labor Reform

Are unions really opposed to changing the EFCA as it is?

http://www.law.harvard.edu/students/orgs/jol/vol45_2/311-334_Specter-Nguyen.pdf

The reform the country needs is not as simple as instituting card check
or mandating secret ballot elections. Neither of those options would cure the
weak remedies or procedural delays at the NLRB. More importantly, merely
changing the selection mechanism would do nothing to make unions and
employers more willing to deal with each other in good faith. As early as
1983, scholars recognized that meaningful labor law reform requires chang-
ing the background legal environment in order to reduce employers’ opportu-
nities to engage in illegitimate interference with their employees’ choices.159
This is not to deny that we will always need regulation to prevent abuse of
the employees’ right of self-organization and that we must reform the reme-
dies available, preferably by emphasizing the immediacy rather than the se-
verity of remedial measures. Effective reform will require a radical change
in our conception of how employees should go about making their choice for
or against union representation.

[AllentownJake]

24. Depends on what the change is

If the change to EFCA will actually make it easier for them to organize and file and address grievances than I see them being acceptable to changes.

[Aloha Spirit]

25. I feel much better about his position on this after reading the article...

He seems most concerned about simplifying the process so that it's timely and transparent.

"We decline to join the partisan fight, which has turned into a rush to
stylize the problem and to tell stories of abuses by employers and unions. As
we describe below, those abuses occur on both sides. Pointing fingers is a
decidedly unproductive endeavor. Instead, we propose two steps to advance
legislation that truly deals with employees’ freedom of choice. First, Con-
gress must hold hearings on how to reduce the window of time during which
both sides could cheat and how to increase remedies when cheating does
occur. Second, it must pass legislation that focuses on securing employees’
freedom of choice in the workplace, rather than on serving the interests of
unions or employers.

The current system does not do enough to deal with the often inherently
confrontational relationship between unions and employers, making it diffi-
cult for either group to focus on the right of employees to freely choose.
Although unions work to improve members’ salaries and working condi-
tions, they also want to collect dues, build power, and interpose themselves
in the relationship between workers and employers. At the same time, em-
ployers want to maintain control over their labor costs and retain the right to
manage their businesses and employees. Instead of respecting the free choice
of employees, both sides may capitalize on the maze of procedural hurdles
and related delays in the NLRA’s representation process to exert pressure on
employees. "

[Laelth]

26. Thanks for the insight. n/t

:dem:

-Laelth

[Fire1]

28. I SHALL be waiting. Bookmarking for future reference.

Remember you said this.:)

[POAS]

30. Question about PA election law---

Does PA allow "crossover" primary voting?

If so do you see a move by the GOP to orchestrate a result in the Dem primary?

[JimGinPA]

32. No - Closed Primaries Here nt

[POAS]

33. That is a good thing.

Let Arlen's fate rest within the Democratic party!