IMO, Souter will be first of six to leave the court within the next term.

[CK_John]

Several due to age but 2 will probably be due to the change of public opinion toward wedge issues. Roberts and Thomas will see the that their use to the RW is over and will move on for bigger bucks.

[tularetom]

1. I could see Roberts giving in to the lure of big bucks in private practice but Thomas?

He's a moran. A mental midget with anger management issues and a professional victim.

Perhaps he could become a right wing radio talk show host.

[MadMaddie]

15. I agree about Thomas what a pathetic excuse for a

Supreme Court Judge!

[PearliePoo2]

27. Pathetic is right

The contents of my shop junk drawer has more intellect.
Stupid with a "tude".

[sofa king]

29. I refuse to believe he's stupid.

If anything, I think Clarence Thomas is merely very smart, as opposed to a genius. The dude grew up speaking Gullah and had to learn proper English at a late age. He didn't have Scalia's shoulder to peek over until he got this job, so his prior writing and opinions must have come at least in part from himself.

And, at this point, questions about the man's qualifications are totally irrelevant. He's got fifteen years' experience on the top bench, and that puts him way ahead of anyone currently being considered to replace Souter.

No, I don't like his opinions, but I don't think Clarence Thomas is intellectually inferior to his fellow Justices.

[saltpoint]

2. I love your arithmetic. I'm thinking that Roberts is so obstinate that

he'll be there until he breathes his last breath and alas he is a relatively young man.

Thomas, certainly the most worthless of the 9, may remain just to be stubborn. But his influence will continue to wane, and it didn't start out as much to begin with.

I think President Obama will have 1-3 appointments for SCOTUS inside 4-5 years. I'm predicting 2 terms for him, so it could go higher.

I'd like to see some progressive females appointed to that Court.

[onehandle]

3. Nope. We are stuck with 5 right-wingers for decades. nt

[tekisui]

5. Kennedy is in his 70s. He is the 'swing' vote I have my eye on.

Ginsberg, Stevens, and Souter could go comfortably anytime in the next 8 years.

Thomas, Roberts, Alito and Scalia are sticks in the mud for decades, hopefully as a minority.

[Better Believe It]

33. Could have stopped two of them in 2005 with a Democratic filibuster

[ccharles000]

4. I think you are being overly hopeful.

I say 3 tops

[CK_John]

9. Like the CEO's of Wall Street and the new issues of society the court will

be more than glad to give it up.

[SharonRB]

6. That didn't take long

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/30508968/

[TwilightZone]

8. Hindsight is 20/20.

The news was already out when this OP was posted.

[TwilightZone]

7. Uh, no. Roberts and Thomas aren't going anywhere.

[cali]

10. neither is Alito n/t

[TwilightZone]

13. Agreed.

I specifically mentioned Roberts and Thomas since they were in the OP, but I definitely agree that Alito isn't leaving, either.

[LiberalFighter]

22. Thomas will leave when Scalia dies or retires.

[PearliePoo2]

25. I agree with that

Thomas can't form an independant idea or make a statement on his own.
Thomas: "What Tony said"!
Dumb as a fucking pet rock.

[salguine]

11. In your dreams. The thing about sitting on the Supreme Court is that you're

completely immune to the political winds whichever way they blow. It's an appointment for life. You can sit there and be as big of a dick as you want, and there's no price to pay for it—no voters to answer to; you can't be fired. The Court was deliberately structured this way to ensure that the Justices didn't have their decisions corrupted by political influences.

Not only are they not going anywhere, but Alito and Roberts, at least, are relatively young men, and are going to be sitting there for decades.

[LiberalFighter]

23. Most SC Justices retire. And when they turn 65 they can retire with full benefits.

I see everyone but Roberts and Alito as possible candidates for retirement within 8 years.

[salguine]

30. Yeah, that's true, but even though they can retire at 65,

most stay on beyond—in several cases way beyond—that. We'll have Roberts and Alito's company for a long time to come. And Thomas is still only 60; we could have him for thirty more years if he lives that long.

[Donald Ian Rankin]

12. Roberts, Thomas, and Alito aren't going any where

We might *conceivably* see Kennedy or Scalia go in the next 8 years, but I wouldn't hold your breath.

Basically, if the Democrats want to move the Supreme court beyond 5/4 in their favour, then Obama and the next candidate both have to win.

[CK_John]

16. I think they will be gone by Thankgiving. nt

[Donald Ian Rankin]

17. You aren't planning a killing spree or anything, are you? N.T.

[CK_John]

19. No, The term begins in Oct and will have new players.

[onenote]

20. not the remotest chance

You are more likely the win the lottery seven days in a row than Roberts, Alito and Thomas (or even any one of them) retiring by thanksgiving this year, next year, or the year after.

[CK_John]

21. I have the same chance Spector will become a Dem. oops he did. nt

[TwilightZone]

32. He's been a thorn in the sides of Republicans for a long, long time.

His defection was not a surprise.

[ShadowLiberal]

14. Umm, nope, only way any of the conservative judges leave is from health issues

Quite simply the only way any of the 4 radical conservatives leave the court is probably if they get really sick with something like cancer and die. They're not going to retire when they know for certain that a radical liberal will in all likelihood replace them on the court. I mean come on, in theory if we vote along party lines the GOP can't even filibuster our nominees.

There's never been a better time for a liberal judge to retire, and never a worse time for a conservative judge to retire.

[davidpdx]

18. I very much disagree

Ginsburg will retire in the next 3-4 years I think, Stevens (who is 89) will also retire in the next 3. With Souter that would give Obama three appointments, which is not bad (by the way that would be 2 conservatives and 1 liberal). If you look at the ages of the justices minus those two, most of them now are at the very eldest in their late sixties or early seventies. That makes it improbable to me that any of the other six would retire pending some health problem we don't already know about or a family issue that could come up in the future.

[CTyankee]

24. We never know what can happen. I've seen lives eclipsed in split seconds.

My next door neighbor hit by a car rendering her brain dead. My dear friend's husband, also hit by a car while he was jogging, top of his profession and brilliant. Gone in an instant.

We forget the twists and turns that life can mete out. Age is not the only thing that can take a person's life.

Better to concentrate on the here and now and what we can do strategically to see to it that progressive policies remain in strong sway...but that's just my opinion.

[kwassa]

26. I agree with you.

The comparitively younger conservative justices will stay as long as they can. I don't see any of them leaving voluntarily. They were chosen at a younger age for just this reason.

[Cosmocat]

34. Unless something tragic happens ...

or Scalia or Thomas have health problems, mostly likely, BO is going to just get to replace the "liberal" justices and hold the same formula ... Ginsburg, Stevens and Souter are in the "liberal" block.

As others have noted, Roberts and Alito were put there for a reason, and they are going NO WHERE. I am 43, and I HOPE to see a day when neither of these two are on the bench. But, it is going to be decades. THIS is one of the many long lasting repurcussions of the right gaining steam in the mid/late 90s, and getting a complete moron into the white house instead of Al Gore, though I will say, had 9-11 happened on his watch, things would be A LOT different today, because instead of Fin it up from day one because they were in power, they would have been able to ride the terror ticket for a lot longer, being able to snipe Gore out of office his first term, then getting to play the "Ds are to weak" card for closer to a generation instead of just a half decade.

[olegramps]

28. How about an amendment to limit their terms, 10, 20, ?

[WinkyDink]

31. Next Republican Admin, go for it.

[rasputin1952]

35. Thing about Thomas is that he is not the brightest bulb in the chandellier...

but when one adds that the man is remarkably lazy, he's not about to give up a lifetime job that pays pretty well, the hours are pretty light and in most cases, he doesn't have to exercise his gray matter to any extent.

Scalia is a "Type A" persoanlity and could have some serious medical problems in the future, "Type A's" don't generally last that long.

Alito and Roberts are there for a while...if for nothing else, the prestige.