Pew Research: Centrism has emerged as a dominant factor in public opinion as the Obama era begins

[wyldwolf]

Centrism has emerged as a dominant factor in public opinion as the Obama era begins. The political values and core attitudes that the Pew Research Center has monitored since 1987 show little overall ideological movement. Republicans and Democrats are even more divided than in the past, while the growing political middle is steadfastly mixed in its beliefs about government, the free market and other values that underlie views on contemporary issues and policies. Nor are there indications of a continuation of the partisan realignment that began in the Bush years. Both political parties have lost adherents since the election and an increasing number of Americans identify as independents.

While the Democrats gained a sizable advantage in partisan affiliation during George Bush’s presidency, their numbers slipped between December 2008 and April 2009, from 39% to 33%. Republican losses have been a little more modest, from 26% to 22%, but this represents the lowest level of professed affiliation with the GOP in at least a quarter century. Moreover, on nearly every dimension the Republican Party is at a low ebb – from image, to morale, to demographic vitality.

By contrast, the percentage of self-described political independents has steadily climbed, on a monthly basis, from 30% last December to 39% in April. Taking an average of surveys conducted this year, 36% say they are independents, 35% are Democrats, while 23% are Republicans. On an annual basis, the only previous year when independent identification has been this high was in 1992 when Ross Perot ran a popular independent candidacy.

As has been the case in recent years, more independents “lean” Democratic than Republican (17% vs. 12%).

http://people-press.org/report/517/political-values-and-core-attitudes

[TwilightZone]

1. Ouch. That is going to make some people a tad unhappy.

It's more important than ever to understand that we win elections by appealing to the largest number of voters, not the largest number of partisans.

[wyldwolf]

2. yeah, Pew Research will soon be revealed as a stealth right wing organization

[Moochy]

3. Suprise!

Pollster polls people and finds the statistical significance of the center!

[TwilightZone]

4. Actually, it'll probably just be ignored.

Can't have facts encroaching on our 'reality' now, can we? :)

[Thrill]

11. Obama already gets it.

[TwilightZone]

12. Agreed.

He got it before he started running for President.

[ClarkUSA]

5. Actual title of this story: "Independents Take Center Stage in Obama Era"... this isn't a surprise

[wyldwolf]

8. Unless you got it from Taegan Goddard's Political Wire...

... where the title is "Partisan Gap Widest Ever."

Or Politics Daily where the title is "Independent Voters Are Conflicted, Centrist and At a 70-Year High."

[jsamuel]

10. Lets just say that everyone can use these numbers to say a whole host of things, but not all of them

are right.

My view is that this shows the Democrats are much weaker right now than they were in December 2008 in public opinion. This could be due to any number of reasons, including not pushing for stronger changes. There is a wide variety of independents and I hate it when people just think that they are simply between Dems and Repubs ideologically.

[TwilightZone]

14. Good find.

That's hilarious. The filter of partisanship can be an interesting one.

[ShortnFiery]

15. This is HUGE! ...

not :eyes:

[Forkboy]

6. That's no surprise to me.

I don't think the country could handle going from far right to far left in a snap, even if I personally would love it.

I would take close note of the independents. Their rise says to me that that many aren't aren't thrilled with either party, and seeing as though Obama's positives within the Dem party are very strong, the criticism from the left is probably due, at least in fair part, to independents that "lean" Dem and voted for him, but aren't thrilled with some of decisions so far.

I also think that many of those independents are people who normally wouldn't have voted at all (and probably many first time voters as well) , but believed in Obama, especially faced with a continuance of Bush's policies and then some under a McCain presidency. They could just as easily not vote next time around.

And to be fair, I know some could vote Republican or Libertarian if Obama goes too far left. I just personally think we could offset that easily by the numbers a leftward swing could bring in (and I don't mean a far left, Jello Biafra swing, just a Carter type of leftness (read: humanity) with a bit of an actual attitude towards the Right).

[Luminous Animal]

7. This is the key paragraph...

Owing to defections from the Republican Party, independents are more conservative on several key issues than in the past. While they like and approve of Barack Obama, as a group independents are more skittish than they were two years ago about expanding the social safety net and are reluctant backers of greater government involvement in the private sector.

This fact is what has driven polling results over the past two years. It's not that independents have become more centrist, it's that more conservatives, more ideologically aligned with the likes of Specter, or Snowe, have left the Republican party.

[wyldwolf]

9. .

It's not that independents have become more centrist, it's that more conservatives, more ideologically aligned with the likes of Specter, or Snowe, have left the Republican party.

And become independents, making independents more centrist and even conservative.

[Luminous Animal]

13. "Making independents more conservative."

The Republicans who left the party didn't suddenly become centrists (whatever that means). It means that those unaffiliated with a party now include more conservatives in their ranks than they did 2 years ago. Independents are not a party and do not have an ideology, a "leader", nor do they constitute a voting bloc. If every Democrat left of Obama Democrat abandoned the party and declared no affiliation, the polling results of the views of independents would be skewed to the left but that would not suddenly change the definition of centrism (whatever that means) to leftism.

[wyldwolf]

16. hold on now

The passage you quoted says "Owing to defections from the Republican Party, independents are more conservative on several key issues than in the past."

Then you stated, "It's not that independents have become more centrist, it's that more conservatives, more ideologically aligned with the likes of Specter, or Snowe, have left the Republican party."

So where did these Republicans who left the party go? They became independents - according to Pew - effectively making those ex-Republican independents more conservative and, thus, making the Independent movement more centrist as a whole. :shrug:

[Luminous Animal]

19. What evidence to you have that there is an "independent movement".

There is no such thing. How does pushing polling results towards conservative ideas make those ideas more centrist?

What is happening is that Republican, no longer happy with the fundamentalist and fear-mongering reactionary direction that there party is going are re-registering as independents. They are not joining any kind of movement but rather, rejecting another.

Again, if every single Democrat re-registered as an independent, that would not make the ideals of centrism more liberal nor would it make liberals more centrist.

[wyldwolf]

26. oh, the fact that self-described Independents now outnumber both parties...

... and are at a 70 year high...that was my first clue. :eyes:

What is happening is that Republican, no longer happy with the fundamentalist and fear-mongering reactionary direction that there party is going are re-registering as independents. They are not joining any kind of movement

Yes, the growing independent movement.

http://www.independentmovement.net/


Again, if every single Democrat re-registered as an independent, that would not make the ideals of centrism more liberal nor would it make liberals more centrist.

Republicans become independent to escape the bat-shit crazy wing of their party. Democrats become independent to escape the bat-shit crazy wing of their party. "Centrists."

[Luminous Animal]

29. Hahaha!!!

I just created a website called the bigassmooooooooooooooovement! My name is Linda Curtis! (Not really.) I've worked with Ross Perot, Ralph Nader, Lenora Fulani and former Texas Comptroller, Carole Keeton Strayhorn!
http://www.independentmovement.net/Bios.html

Hahahahahahaha!!!

[wyldwolf]

38. oh, I get it

"Movement" is only allowed for progressives. Any other time a mass number of people start moving in the same direction politically, it simply can't be a movement.

"Linda," the poll results from Pew display the very definition of "movement."

[Aloha Spirit]

17. 33/39 = 22/26

for the record lol

[William769]

18. K&R!

[mkultra]

20. no shock, its independants the elect presidents, not bases.

bases can server to inspire and create momentum, but no president wins without drawing the middle. Its like chess, whoever can take the middle has the better chance of taking the king.

[ShadowLiberal]

21. The thing is most independents think & act like members of one party in most ways

A lot of people who call themselves independent think and act a lot like democrats or republicans if you ask them about their opinions on issues. If you press most independents enough they'll admit they tend to lean towards one party or the other.

The real importance should probably be who's bleeding ground and having their people become independents, as obviously they must have felt they didn't belong in the party, or didn't like their party's direction.

[mikekohr]

22. Agreed!

The last poll I looked at on this topic showed that with "leaners" figured in Democrats enjoyed a historic high of 54% affiliation among the American people. Repukes were down around 38% with "leaners," a historic low.

mike kohr

[eridani]

23. The Pew Foundation also found that 75% of independents want government guaranteed health care

--as do 91% of Dems and 51% of Repubs. So if it's centrist now, why can't we have single payer?

[avaistheone1]

33. Great point. No one will answer that though.

Do you have a link. I would like to add that to my research on single payer health insurance.

[eridani]

44. This is one of them

http://www.pnhp.org/news/2005/may/moderate_and_populis.php

[avaistheone1]

47. Thank you. Great study. I will add that to the research I have been

collecting.

Single-payer NOW!

[eridani]

60. Still from OP n/t

[Old Hank]

24. independent and centrist is not the same

Sorry.

[wyldwolf]

27. no, but the bulk of independent voters are centrists

As moderate Dems and Repubs leave their respective parties and go independent, it creates a moderate independent center.

[eridani]

61. And 75% of them want government guaranteed health care n/t

[AllentownJake]

25. I dislike independents

Pick a fucking side. My father always said he was an independent than voted GOP every election cycle. I know independents who do the same for democrats. They act all high an mighty. My answer in PA is always, yeah well I'm a Democrat, I get to pick one of the two people you get to vote for in November.

[Number23]

28. If you don't fully like either side, then why would you choose?

Especially if you didn't have to?? That's idiotic.

[Luminous Animal]

30. Thus the fallacy

that independents are centrist. Independents are nothing more than people unwilling to choose from a very narrow set of options. That being 2. Why do I get hundreds of options for soup but only 2 to be the leaders of the free world?

[Number23]

36. Yes, but I think that it's the "centrist-ness" of independents

that makes us unwilling to choose from that narrow set of options that you mentioned. Particularly when both options are sorely lacking but in completely different ways.

[wyldwolf]

40. or, in simpler terms, if one only thinks in black/white us/them either/or terms..

.. they can't possibly understand centrism and, thus, deny it exists.

[Luminous Animal]

50. That makes no sense.

Using this logic, socialist independents and libertarian independents are centrists.

[Number23]

54. They very well could be on a number of matters. Hence why they would be

"socialist independents" instead of simply "socialists."

[Luminous Animal]

55. Ah but that would belie the entire

notion that "independent" = "centrist". A false claim that both the Pew report and the OP make.

[Number23]

56. I don't know what point you're trying to make but okay. What I said bolsters the belief

that independent can = centrist. You mentioned "socialist independents" not being centrists, I mentioned that they could be on certain issues, which is probably why they call themselves "socialist independents" and not "socialists."

I'm not sure where you're trying to take the OP's points and why but have at it.

[Luminous Animal]

57. I know not of these socialist independents of which you speak.

No doubt a person who has registered to vote as an independent CAN be a centrist. But the PEW report AND the OP make a false equivalency by stating that independent voters ARE centrists. This is patently untrue. For instance, if I changed my party affiliation tomorrow from Green to independent, that would not automatically make me a centrist.

[AllentownJake]

39. In PA you can't vote in a primary unless you pick a side.

I strongly support keeping it that way. If you don't want to register for my party. You don't get to weigh in on my party's candidate.

[Number23]

53. LOL Then it's a good thing the electoral system in the United States considers opinions like yours

as laughable as I do.

[AllentownJake]

58. I'm sorry,

If you aren't a registered democrat you shouldn't be voting in a democratic primary.

[Luminous Animal]

62. 2/3rds of the states have a closed primary system.

That is, you must be a registered member of a party in order to vote for the candidate of that party in the primary. The logic being that Democrats get to choose the Democrat that they want to represent them.

[Number23]

63. My comments to that poster had nothing to do with the primaries of any state

Are you and I done yet?

[Luminous Animal]

64. The title of that poster's post...

is thus:

"In PA you can't vote in a primary unless you pick a side." Thus that poster was specifically referring to voting in a primary not a general election. Your comments made no sense in context to voting in primaries.

[Number23]

66. Post 25, which is what sparked this conversation, had NOTHING to do with primaries

My comments were about the poster "disliking independents" and were not in reference to a primary, okay?

Now would you please float on and find someone else to annoy the shit out of?? Good Lord!

[Luminous Animal]

68. You are right.

I should have read your mind and realized that even though you replied to #39, you were actually replying to #25. I understand, though. It is sooooo confusing given that the number 2 is right next to the number 3 and the number 5 is a bit more than half way to the number 9.

[Number23]

69. Damn you sound stupid. I will say it again -- FLOAT ON.

[Luminous Animal]

71. Perhaps you should take your own advice Number23.

Or is that Number38? Heavens! Numbers are hard!

[vaberella]

31. I'm a proud Independent. We always pick a side when we vote. n/t

[DatManFromNawlins]

35. The biggest problem with the US political process...

... is that there are only 2 sides, and neither are very palatable to a non-demagogue.

[Number23]

37. exactly!

:thumbsup:

[Luminous Animal]

70. All voters are non-demagogues

Political "leaders" can be demagogues or non-demagogues (no such thing really - all political candidates make appeals to populism). Voters can eschew demagoguery but they themselves can rarely be demagogues because of the scant chance of finding themselves in a position of political leadership necessary to wielding demagoguery.


Funny thing though, even though centrists claim to reject the demagoguery of the two party's candidates, they keep restricting their votes to those two parties time after time after time after time.

[avaistheone1]

32. The only thing in the middle of the road

is road kill.


(Kudos to Jim Hightower for that.)

[wyldwolf]

41. The game is played in the middle of the field. Spectators sit on the left and right

[ShortnFiery]

42. No the game is played by "the power elite" behind closed doors while the people

are subdued and entertained by political waltzes by the GOP and Third Way Democrats.

But we ALL know who runs Bartertown: The elites within the right-wing corporate duopoly known as the American Political Machine.

[wyldwolf]

43. oh, yeah, I forgot about the "power elite" corporate duopoly and all.

[Moochy]

49. Dont bite the hand that feeds you wolfie

[Bluenorthwest]

46. In football, the goals are at the far left and right

No points are scored in the center. To win the game, you can not live on the 50 yard line.

[wyldwolf]

48. the spectators on the far left and the far right

the game is played in the middle

[Luminous Animal]

73. Dude. The spectators are at both ends of the field.

And in the middle. They're spectators for fuck's sake.

[Luminous Animal]

72. Yep. Those damn suffragette spectators.

Those abolitionists, union agitators, civil rights workers, environmental activists, and feminists. Totally sitting in the bleacher seats watching the middle duke it out.

I hear that Texas is always on the look out for some high-school text book editors, you should check it out.

[democracy1st]

34. centrism = BS so far

[Lorien]

67. The real BS is the title of the OP. The real title is: "Independents Take

Center Stage in Obama Era. Trends in Political Values and Core Attitudes: 1987-2009" according to the article cited.

[Odin2005]

45. Obama's based are moderates and center-left folks pissed off at the last 8 years.

Not the Naderites that think Obama is Bush Lite.

[iamthebandfanman]

51. perception is everything baby! n/t

[depakid]

52. So what is "centricism?"

and if it'sw so important, then why on issue after issue are substantial majorities in favor of progressive positions?

Nope- so called "centricism" is simply an excuyse for selling out to Republicans and big money interests time and again. and as it continues, support for Democrats on the ground will wane- just as it should.

[Uncle Joe]

59. From the Bible

When two women were fighting over who the mother of a baby was, King Solomon said let's cut the baby in half and give each a share. One woman cried out no!, let the other woman have it so at least the baby would survive, Solomon in his wisdom knew this distraught woman was the real mother and awarded the baby to her.

Giving the baby to her was the progressive/liberal compassionate and wise thing to do.

Actually cutting the baby in half was the centrist thing to do as they must both be right and thus we should split the difference.

Awarding the baby to the woman in the finer clothes was the conservative thing to do as the woman in the plain garments obviously didn't deserve to have children.

Water-boarding the baby in order to get the truth out of the little son of *&%$# was the neocon way.

Of course I was joking but centrism is mis-leading because as society evolves the poles shift. During the Depression, socialism and communism had an upswing and was much more acceptable as dog eat dog capitalism had pretty much consumed all the dogs.

After World War II, the beginning of the Cold War, McCarthy's Witch hunts and the power of the developed military industrial complex; of which General and President Eisenhower would later warn against in his farewell address, the nation either shifted to the right or at least those in power gave that impression, mostly by coercion and propaganda.

[Lorien]

65. You can't mistake disgust with either party or apathy as "centrism"

Many of us here are further to the Left than the DLC or many Democratic leaders. I call myself an independent Progressive because the Democratic party is too far to the Right for my tastes. I have friends who are Greens or Socialists who also consider the Dems to be too centrist, but who were staunch Democrats up until the past several years. The trend isn't centrist, imho, the trend is away from the weakening of the Democratic party and the extremism of the Republican party.