CA-Gov: Brown Beats All Republicans, Newsom Loses To All

[ccharles000]

http://www.swingstateproject.com/diary/5648/cagov-brown-beats-all-republicans-newsom-loses-to-all

Rasmussen (9/24, likely voters):

Jerry Brown (D): 44
Meg Whitman (R): 35
Some other: 3
Not sure: 18

Jerry Brown (D): 45
Steve Poizner (R): 32
Some other: 5
Not sure: 18

Jerry Brown (D): 44
Tom Campbell (R): 34
Some other: 6
Not sure: 16

Gavin Newsom (D): 36
Meg Whitman (R): 41
Some other: 5
Not sure: 18

Gavin Newsom (D): 36
Steve Poizner (R): 40
Some other: 6
Not sure: 18

Gavin Newsom (D): 36
Tom Campbell (R): 42
Some other: 6
Not sure: 17
(MoE: ±4.5%)


I certainly would have predicted that ex-Governor Jerry Brown was doing somewhat better than San Francisco mayor Gavin Newsom vis-a-vis their Republican competition, but I wouldn't have guessed the disparity was so great that Brown is putting up double-digit victory margins while Newsom is losing to all three Republicans... yet that's what Rasmussen is telling us. Brown wins by a margin ranging from 9 to 13, while Newsom loses by a margin ranging from 4 to 6. The differences in performance among the three Republicans -- all, superficially, moderate Silicon Valley types -- are negligible.

Rasmussen doesn't give us any primary numbers, but all polls of the primary so far have Brown up, although some by a narrow margin and some with a wide edge (although no polling has been done since Newsom scored a Bill Clinton endorsement). Ex-eBay CEO Meg Whitman has been accorded front-runner status on the GOP side, but it would be interesting to see if that's been affected by the recent pounding she's taken by the media over her almost-non-existent voting history. (In fact, it's worth noting that this sample was taken on the 24th, before the Sacramento Bee's story broke... and now the launch of Steve Poizner's new ad hammering on that point.)

[msongs]

1. Newsom = the poster boy for gay marriage via prop 8 ads. like it or not, many

californians will only know him as that guy saying "...like it or not.." about the coming of gay marriage. Is that wrong? of course it is, but it was branded on the brains of anyone watching tv or listening to radio last summer.

Msongs

[ronnykmarshall]

10. I hear that.

Love him and thank him for being there for my rights ... but he can't win statewide. Heard a rumor that he's gonna jump out and run for Lt. Gov.

Just a rummor.

[saltpoint]

2. One look down the list of possible GOP noms in this race and I'm

willing to go with anybody who can defeat them.

Meg Whitman? Jesus.

It does seem to me that Brown has the leverage in this race. I like Newsome fairly well, but not as well as Jerry Brown.

[Raine]

3. I'm for Brown

because he can and will beat the reTHUGs but they'll wipe the floor with Newsome. :-(

[thatsrightimirish]

4. I hope Brown wins

Newsom has been a disappointment as mayor.

[XemaSab]

5. For Bay Area residents

What is Brown's legacy as mayor of Oakland? :shrug:

[musiclawyer]

6. Oakland did Ok under Brown

He was chastised for being too pro-business, and having a deaf ear to community organizers. But he left Oakland a better place than when he got there. Newsome won't win because the only thing people outside of SF know about him is that he's a lothario--perhaps more perceived than real. But that's all that matters. And like I have posted before, we need someone to fix things now, and not be worried about his next political move. I'm all for curtain calls (what it will be for Brown) because performers tend to try to be at their best at the end of the gig.

[LeftishBrit]

7. Out of curiousity...

is this the same Jerry Brown who was governor about 30 years ago? Or his son?

[ccharles000]

8. the one who was governor about 30 years ago

[LeftishBrit]

9. Must be one of the most delayed comebacks ever. How old is he now?

[ronnykmarshall]

11. 71

Will be interesting if he wins.