MI-Gov: Cherry Lags Republican Opponents

[ccharles000]

EPIC-MRA for Detroit News/WXYZ-TV/WOOD-TV (10/11-15, "active voters," 5/18-21 in parentheses)

Primaries:

John Cherry (D): 33 (14)
Alma Wheeler Smith (D): 5 (2)
George Perles (D): 3 (2)
Don Williamson (D): 3 (1)
John Freeman (D): 2 (NA)
Undecided: 54 (26)

Peter Hoekstra (R): 29 (27)
Mike Cox (R): 28 (26)
Mike Bouchard (R): 14 (NA)
Rick Snyder (R): 3 (NA)
Tom George (R): 2 (1)
Undecided: 24 (25)
(MoE: ±4%)

General:

John Cherry (D): 33 (36)
Peter Hoekstra (R): 40 (33)

John Cherry (D): 30 (36)
Mike Cox (R): 45 (35)

John Cherry (D): 30
Mike Bouchard (R): 39

John Cherry (D): 34
Rick Snyder (R): 32
(MoE: ±4%)

We've already used the joke "Cherry's Numbers Are the Pits," so I won't bother you with that one again, but the Michigan gubernatorial race is certainly not going in the right direction for the Democrats. The problem right now seems to be that Lt. Gov. John Cherry, front-runner in the Democratic field, is inextricably linked to current Gov. Jennifer Granholm's administration, which is quite unpopular right now as Michigan suffers from what are in all likelihood the worst economic conditions of any of the 50 states. There seems to have been a lot of decline since the last EPIC-MRA poll in May; while Cherry squeaked past Rep. Peter Hoekstra and AG Mike Cox then, he's losing by double-digits today. (He does, however, beat businessman Rick Snyder -- probably the most moderate option among the Republicans, but also little-known statewide.)

The primary fields have gotten dramatically reshaped since May; on the GOP side, EPIC-MRA previously also included SoS Terri Lynn Land (who has since dropped out) but added Oakland Co. Sheriff Mike Bouchard. And on the Democratic side, they previously included Sen. Debbie Stabenow (bizarre, since she has never expressed interest in the race), Wayne Co. Exec Robert Ficano (ditto), and state House Speaker Andy Dillon (who seems to have simply faded into obscurity) -- which would explain why Cherry (and "undecided") are performing much better in the Dem primary now. Still, with 54% of primary voters undecided, and losing ground in the general, you've gotta start wondering if Cherry is the best we can do here.

http://www.swingstateproject.com/diary/5768/migov-cherry-lags-republican-opponents

[SpartanDem]

1. It's looking like Cherry may have to go

I wonder what Dillon's numbers would look like

[blue_onyx]

3. I would never vote for Dillon

even if he were the Democratic nominee. If I wanted to vote for a Republican, I would just vote for the Republican.

[Engineer4Obama]

2. This is still a long way out

I don't get too worried about poll numbers when they are in the 30s

[blue_onyx]

4. I'm not too worried

If elections were decided by polls a year before the vote, DeVos would be governor right now. Cherry, I believe, has fairly low name recognition. He hasn't been a high profile person in the state during Granholm's administration.

I believe the GOP will nominate Bouchard, who has received the support of SoS Terri Lynn Land (also his running mate) and L. Brooks Patterson. Since Bouchard lost by 16% against Sen. Stabenow, including an 8% loss in his home county, I'm not too worried about him.