The State of Virginia and my sister's PLEA!

[in_cog_ni_to]

My sister just called me. She lives in Virginia and is very upset that Kerry is not spending ANY money there. She said he doesn't run ads. He doesn't do rallies there and she hasn't seen ANYTHING from Kerry during this campaign and she is VERY upset about it. She thinks he COULD win the state.

She told a couple of Kerry stories...

She said her husband was at work (post office) and he was standing around with a group of about 8 other people and they were discussing the hurricanes in FL.. Someone asked why FL. was so unlucky and what did they ever do to deserve those hurricanes? Someone else said, "Well, Jeb Bush DID steal the 2000 election. Maybe this is payback?" EVERYONE THERE AGREED WITH THE GUY! ALL of them. 9 people in that group....Kerry supporters!

Then, my sister had 2 Bumper Banners stolen off of her car...Bumper Banners with Kerry/Edwards bumperstickers in them. She was at the hairdresser and her hairdresser noticed her Kerry button on her purse and asked her where she could get some buttons. She said she needed to get some bumperstickers for her car too. That brought up the subject of my sister's stolen Bumper Banners. She told the hairdresser that she had to buy bumperstickers to actually stick on her bumper so they wouldn't be stolen. The lady in the chair next to my sister asked..."Who on EARTH with do such a thing? Who would steal bumperstickers??!! That's just shameful! " My sister said..."Well, obviously, it was some republicans who did it." The lady asked.."Why would they steal your bumperstickers?" (at this point my sister is thinking this lady is a freeper) My sister..."BECAUSE REPUBLICANS ARE NAZIS, THAT'S WHY! THAT'S WHAT THEY DO!" The lady..."THANK YOU! I WAS JUST TELLING MY HUSBAND THE SAME THING THE OTHER NIGHT. I TOLD HIM TO LOOK UP THE WORD "FASCISM" IN THE DICTIONARY!" 2 more Kerry voters in Virginia!

My sister's question is "WHY THE HELL IS KERRY NOT IN VIRGINIA TRYING TO WIN THIS STATE? HE HAS A LOT OF SUPPORT HERE!"

Why she called ME about this is unknown..;), but I think she wants some input from DU (I talk about DU ALL the time). What do you guys/gals think about Kerry and Virginia?

She's right! Look at the latest poll. Kerry could take Virginia, but he needs to let the people know he WANTS their votes.


State: Virginia Bush 49 Kerry 43

Electoral votes: 13

Sample size: 600 likely voters
Sample dates: Sep 12-14
Margin of error: Plus or minus 4 percentage points

[JohnKleeb]

1. Virginia is being fought on the ground

I can tell you from personal experience. If it's true what Tom Davis said that every bumper sticker or what have you is worth 250 dollars of ad money then we got a lot of ad money lol. Here in Northern Virginia, we got a determined group, my school's Young Democrats not only meets more often than the young republicans but our members are active, and we have like 20 people, and Frank Wolf's district went 56-41 for Bush, this is gonna be won or edged by on the ground.

[underpants]

4. Right they are relying on cable ads and might add more depending on polls

in-cog tell you sister that everyone I talk to is absolutely psyched about this election and everyone wants to help (showing up is another matter). It is close and the Dems campaign work in DEEP SW Virginia will pay off like it did for Mark Warner.

[in_cog_ni_to]

8. I'll tell her!

She knows Kerry could take the state and is bewildered as to why he isn't there. I'll tell her there IS hope, but she needs to get out and work for him....help make it happen!

[underpants]

22. It's a matter of resources

Tad Devine (sp?) just refuted Mathew Dowd on Paula Zahn (I was watching that?), Dowd mentioned that Kerry had pulled out of AZ VA and two other states-Devine said that media purchases were back loaded and no state had been pulled out of. Political grandstanding on both sides for sure but even WITH Fla. in 2000 W couldn't have "won" without Va., in pure EV numbers.

BTW- Paula Zahn just reported that the Repubs are going to get around spending limits by inserting "...and Congressional colleagues" into W ads. Sliiiiiiiiimy! I'll start a thread on it.

[spooky3]

2. Actually another poll has him within 3% points. Sorry no link.

I am in VA and also wish he and Edwards would spend time here. I guess they have made a calculated decision that with the limited resources (time and $) they have they need to focus it on the states that are a tossup or more traditionally Dem leaning.

I do think it's unfair to attribute the horrible consequences of the hurricanes to anyone. I hope someone in the group of 9 Kerry supporters shared that sentiment.

[liberalpragmatist]

12. The Thing is, That Support Has Been CONSISTENT

Bush has consistently been only about 5 points (or fewer) behind Kerry throughout the season. To be honest, whether or not the Kerry camp spends there, I think Bush will win, but it'll be a drastically reduced margin. Bush is almost always right at 50% or just under it. I think the final result will be something like 50-48 Bush. BUT if there's high Democratic turnout, esp. among students who were expected not to vote in high totals, it COULD swing to Kerry. I'm hopeful.

[Iceburg]

24. Zogby September 17 49.6% Bush 47.2% Kerry (+ link)

http://www.race2004.net/states.php?state=va

[IdaBriggs]

3. Tell her to go to the

www.demstore.com and get a bunch to hand out! Good luck! :) Ida

[chimpymustgo]

5. Kerry, DNC, Move On doing lots of advertising in the DC-NoVA area.

Where does your sister live?

[in_cog_ni_to]

7. Locust Grove, near Culpeper......just South of D.C.

She has seen nada of Kerry.

[seabeyond]

6. i would like him there and lousianna and arizona and colorado

and n and s carolina and arkansas..........and florida, way more in florida.

i think he can take all of em, i just think there is that much dislike for bush. so obvious dislike for bush

the campaign is winding down. just over a month. so little time. three debates coming. your sister is going to have to go out and help kerry there and those 9 friends. he cannot do it all himself. we have to do too

i love her passion and enthusiasm adn what she sees and wants. totally respect it

[mdguss]

9. Virginia isn't quite there:

I've worked in Virginia--if Kerry decisively wins, it'll go to him. It's trending Democratic (in the process of a shift as more people move into Northern Virginia). In four or eight years, it will join Maryland in the Democratic column. But in 2004, the amount of resources it'd require to win Virginia probably don't justify spending the time there. It's better off to go to Pennsylvania, West Virginia, Ohio, Florida, and New Hampshire, etc. (the purple states). Those states are more in the middle. The reality is there's a fixed amount (75 million) that can be spent. Spending money on Virginia means not spending money elsewhere. Ultimately, campaigns have to go where they have the best chance of turning a loss in a state into a victory. That's why we won't see much advertising (if any) in Maryland or Virginia in the coming weeks.

[Invidious]

26. Okay, but as I have posted before...

Kerry even has support in Hampton Roads...which IS the region that usually counters NoVA, my parents live there and they report more and more Kerry signs and bumper stickers...there are a LOT of pissed off military families down there. Who can say that even a small ad buy wouldn't pay off there?
James

[liberalpragmatist]

10. RIght Now We're Doing Better in Virginia than WV and OH

I do think we need to narrow the focus somewhat. Sorry Arizona and Louisiana DU'ers, but I'm reluctantly going to say that not this year - Arizona's possible, but only if we spend tons of money and time there, which is valuabe time lost in a more viable swing state like Florida, Pennsylvania, or Ohio, any 2 of which would probably guarantee us the election.

But I do agree that Virginia needs some cultivating. The numbers there are looking much better than North Carolina even. In fact, the Virginia numbers are looking better than either Missouri, West Virginia, and Ohio! Kerry looks like he's only down by between 3 and 6 points, depending on the poll.

At least if Kerry doesn't directly advertise in Va., I wish that the DNC would take a good ad buy in Virginia - keep it viable, and if it looks within striking distance - one or two points, the Kerry camp can dump an ad buy there in the final 2 or 3 weeks.

[mdguss]

11. Kerry's ahead in some of the places you mention:

http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000103&sid=akONhVexju10&refer=us

Check out this link. Kerry's ahead--on the cusp of 270 in the electoral college. Kerry will win.

[spooky3]

13. thanks for your posts with these numbers--that's consistent with

what I have read also. I have seen a few DNC ads on cable here in NoVA but I don't know what's going on on the networks, which is more important, with more viewers.

[JohnKleeb]

14. There's a great fight for Kerry here on the grounds of NoVA

I am just so happy with how organized we the HHS Young Democrats are, and the others are, we have one of the largest young democrats count in the county of Fairfax yet we also are in one of the most republican towns.

[mdguss]

16. Cable can be better:

Actually, with what the networks charge in D.C., it's better to advertise on cable. You reach more people who are likely to vote at less of the expense. I live in Maryland. There's some Bush ads on our cable system--but that's meant for West Virginia (which is part of our cable system). Kerry had some ads a while back, and the DNC has been running ads since the convention. They're good spots. Kerry's really perfectly positioned to win. Pray for it in case I'm wrong.

[fujiyama]

29. It's interesting

because polls in VA and CO have been more favorable than some from OH and MO. Gore lost both states by a very similar margin (~8 pts).

Another thing that helps in CO is Salazaar. Hell, Kerry has been one point under in several polls straight. One had it tied. These are better numbers than Az.

[Thrill]

15. Internal Polling must be suggesting

its not likely a real battleground..

[mdguss]

17. ARG was phone:

The ARG poll wasn't an internet poll; Zogby was. ARG phoned 600 people each in all 50 states plus D.C. That's an expensive--and exhaustive poll that nobody else will do. It's probably a better reflection of what's going on that some Gallup poll with 500 respondents nationwide. You can't extrapilate the electoral college from 500 people in Texas, Georgia and New York.

[Thrill]

18. I'm talking about Kerry's polling

If his polling was truly showing it was that close believe me they would be advertising and visiting Virginia more often.

[mdguss]

19. I misread that, sorry:

I thought that said internet polling--which Zogby was. ARG is different, and a quality poll. Notice how Bloomberg tried to confuse the two?

[bleedingheart]

20. Tell her to get active with the local Dem committee and start

working to raise money for signs and perhaps get enough support together for a big rally and you might just garner a visit from Kerry, Edwards, Theresa or Elizabeth.

We live in PA in Westmoreland County...2-1 registration in favor of Democrats....and we can't even get a speaker for our banquet!

[in_cog_ni_to]

21. You're kidding??!!

Did you call Wes Clark? ;) He would be an awesome speaker for your banquent! That's a real shame! Pa. is SO important! When's your banquet?

[mdguss]

23. Invite a local politician:

Westmoreland is an important county--though Alleghany is more important. That's probably why Kerry's been to Pittsburgh. Plus, Pittsburgh can more easily handle the traffic associated with candidate visits. The reality is that from now until election, the candidate should be speaking to as broad an audience as possible. My guess is both Kerry and Bush will spend a lot of time at rally's on campuses, farms, urban parks, and airports. These are all places that can readily handle the thousands of people that want to hear the candidate speak. Party dinners probably isn't where a candidate should be at this point in the cycle. Still, I wish you luck in building up the party. Perhaps you should consider inviting one of the able local politicians you have representing the county in the state legislature.

[Cheswick2.0]

25. Try Eisenhower

How about Eisenhower or Hoeffel?
Eisenhower is a great guy and very warm. He comes across as a very personable candidate. I'd urge you to call his campaign and see if you can get him. He could really use the exposure and we have not had a democratic atty general in a loooooooooooonnng time.

[autorank]

27. I'm in NoVA and it's hot for Kerry.

He had a great rally at George Mason University, Fairfax, VA after the primary victory, people fought to get in and be part of it. If the 527's want a place to make their mark, it's here. People are smart and pissed and they'll really go for some cutting, nasty ads. I'm volunteering for the first time since I moved here and so is my family. The posters are right, go to the county party and do something profound, mundane, whatever...just do something. They need all the help they can get and will treat your sister with real respect.

If Kerry/Edwards swing through here in the last two weeks, that will do it!

VICTORY IN VIRGINIA 04

[quaoar]

28. There are no ads in Virginia

Because there are some geniuses in the Kerry campaign who have decided that the polls must be the Gospel and that any money spent in (fill in your favorite state) will be a waste.

It is the same strategy that worked so well for Gore in 2000.

[LittleClarkie]

30. I was born in Virginia

and lived my first 10 years of life there. So glad to hear so many of them have some horse sense. But then, they're right next to DC and can probably smell the stink of the Bush White House from there.