CNN: New ARG Poll shows Kerry taking the lead in OH and PA!

[VolcanoJen]

Copying these numbers from the screen (thanks, Tivo!); no link yet, although maybe ARG has already posted the results on their website.

The pro-Kerry crowd in the CNN audience went nuts as Judy read the latest numbers. :-)

American Research Group

October 4 - 6
Likely Voters
MOE = +/- 4% PTS

OHIO
Kerry: 48%
Bush: 47%
Nader: 1%

PENNSYLVANIA
Kerry: 48%
Bush: 46%
Nader: 1%

[UrbScotty]

1. TERRA-LERT ORANGE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAHHHH!

[cthrumatrix]

18. OR computer voting is "all set-up"

[Maestro]

2. We definitely need those states

And if we could get Fla, then all the better. My state is still going Shrub.

[papau]

3. Great - tomorrow the networks may even update their electoral maps!

[Mz Pip]

4. Giggling

gleefully now in progress.

I am beginning to be more optimistic.

Hang in there Dems, we can do this! :grouphug:

MzPip
:dem:

[enough]

5. Nader dropping. (nt)

[VolcanoJen]

11. And, Judy made sure to mention that Nader won't be on the OH ballot.

:D

[59millionmorons]

6. 5 PA polls

The last five or more PA polls show Kerry up from 2-7 points. Forget about PA it's Kerry's. I dont say this because of the polls, I say this because I can see all of the Kerry bumper stickers and yard signs that you didnt see for Gore in 2000 and Gore won here easily. I expect a 6% victory for Kerry in PA.

[Mojambo]

7. No pats on the back!

Keep working DUers.

Kerry's not celebrating, neither should we.

Ah screw it...

YAY!!!!!!!!!!

[VolcanoJen]

14. Something I remember from working the Dukakis campaign...

... when we won the Ohio primary, sealing Dukakis' nomination, the calls from the Massachusetts leadership to our HQ were hilarious:

"NO PAHTIES!! NO PAHTIES!" (No "parties," in a thick Boston accent.)

At the very least, I'm feeling better about things... not so much because of the shift in the polls, but because of the shift in the mood. Everyone is talking about the election, and people I talk to in everyday life are really, really starting to lean toward Kerry. :D

[Joanne98]

8. We got the big MO......... Now knock him out tommorrow night.....

[Nicholas_J]

9. ARG also has Kerry in the lead in Florida

ARG has been the most reputable and reliable in the methodology it uses to do its polls and in fact
is one of the few polls that includes every bit of the data that it hased used to get its results when it releases the results. It breaks down its data by age group and the number of Republicans, Democrats, and Imdependents that it uses in each poll, which allows anyone looking at its polls to determine if there is any favoritism in any direction by the most un sophisticated reader.

I have been reduced to the point that I will only give credence to ARG,ZOGBY, and Harris. as all of the other pollsters have been found to be sampling in favor of Republicans. They are aware of the complaints that they are doing so, and even ABC admitted the other night that its poll showing Cheney winniing the debates wasa poll in which many more Republicans were polled.

[yellowcanine]

17. Gallup has been one of the worst - not so much a Republican bias as

just real shaky methodology that results in wild swings from one week to the next and even one day to the next. Remember it was Gallup that had Bush up over Gore in the by double digits one week before the election in 2000. I agree that Zogby has been most reliable, I don't know about ARG.

[deadparrot]

10. Let's not get too ahead of ourselves here.

It looks nice now, but if we were down, everyone would be calling it a right wing pollster.

[Thrill]

12. Kerry can deliver a knock out blow

Tomorrow. But the pundits will try to give the debate to Bush. So the race will be close

[West Coast Democrat]

13. I believe he has a wider lead in both states, but especially PA

He'll win PA with a bigger win than Gore IMHO.

[yellowcanine]

15. Sept 30 - Oct 8, 2004 - Worst week in Shrub's political life? Let's hope

not!

[VolcanoJen]

16. Things are looking rough for Chimpy in Colorado, too!

CNN/USA Today/Gallup

October 3 - 6

MoE = +/- 4% pts

Colorado

Likely Voters:

Bush: 49%
Kerry: 49%
Nader: 1%

Registered Voters:

Bush: 48%
Kerry: 48%
Nader: 2%

[Kukesa]

19. Hooray for Ohio -- now we'll work even harder!

You know . . . "it's hard work."

[VolcanoJen]

20. It's hard! It's really hard, hard work!!

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