GREAT detailed piece of analysis at BOR: 102-91 Obama Delegate Edge with Caucus

[crispini]

Hillary's Alamo? 63-63 Delegate Tie in Primary, 102-91 Obama Edge with Caucus
by: MattTX
Fri Feb 22, 2008 at 10:54 AM CST


(This is an amazing piece of analysis that is more than worthy of BOR's front page. Bumped. - promoted by Karl-Thomas Musselman)

(cross posted at Election Inspection)

About a week ago, I projected that Hillary Clinton would beat Barack Obama statewide by about 5%. But because of Texas' Byzantine delegate selection rules, I projected that Obama would come out ahead in the pledged delegate race, 98-95.

But many new polls of Texas have come out in the last few days. I used these polls to improve and update my model and my projections. My new projections, by LoneStarProject (LSP) region:
more
http://www.burntorangereport.com/showDiary.do?diaryId=5110

It occurs to me, though, that 102-91 would by no means wrap it up, would it? Would that get him to the magic delegate number?

Scroll all the way down to the bottom of the piece for the 'best case' scenario for Obama.