http://www.baumbach.org/b2evolution/blogs/index.phpAfter 6 days of early voting (through Saturday), 79,350 voters had cast their ballot. I have been able to analyze 75,513 of them:
33.1% (24,992) were registered Democrats
23.4% (17,694) were registered Republicans
43.5% (32,827) did not vote in the primary
As in most elections, the deciding voters will be the Independents. In Collin County, we can expect the majority of these Independents to vote for Republican candidates. The big question is, "How many of those Independents will vote Republican in 2008?".
We can gain some inferences from looking at previous races.
In the 2004 Presidential election, 222,048 independent (non-primary) voters cast their ballots - 72% of them for Republican George Bush. However, in the more recent 2006 Precinct 2 commissioners court race, only 65% of the Independents voted for the Republican incumbent, Jerry Hoagland.
Many think the key factor will be the newly registered voters. In the primaries, these voters chose the Democrats more than 2 to 1 over the Republicans.
To win in 2008, the Republicans will have to keep at least 55% of the non-primary Independents. If you factor in the newly registered, the Republicans must hold on to over 60% of the Independent vote.