The Knives Are Out

[CHIMO]

BOB RAE Duration: 00:06:46

Four new federal M-Ps are drinking from the cup of victory today. But whether that cup is half-full or half-empty depends on your perspective.

The Liberals won three of four by-elections yesterday -- including two strong showings in Toronto ridings. But they barely beat the Conservatives in a once-solid Liberal riding in Vancouver. And the Conservatives managed to steal a seat formerly held by the Liberals in northern Saskatchewan.

One of last night's victors is Bob Rae, the brand new Liberal M-P for Toronto Centre. He is in Toronto.

http://www.cbc.ca/mrl3/8752/asithappens/20080318-aih-1.wmv
Starts at 21:54 in the program.

http://www.cbc.ca/asithappens/latestshow.html
Nice to learn that Mary was appointed to run.

Also the low turn out in Sask. Bob may have his head in the sand.

Candidates rally around Dion after by-election wins

Ms. Beatty's campaign was troubled from its inception. Mr. Dion chose to bypass the nomination process to anoint her as his chosen candidate, a move that angered supporters of David Orchard. Mr. Orchard, whose support played a crucial role in Mr. Dion's leadership victory, was unhappy with the way he was treated, and his devoted backers worked behind the scenes to persuade traditional Liberals not to vote this time.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20080318.wliberalsupdate0318/BNStory/National/home

So where is Dion support going to come from?

The way things are going Liberals may have to move to the Greens?

[daleo]

1. Liberals won 3 of 4

I think that's all that counts. Coming close only matters in horseshoes and hand grenades, as they say.

The Conservatives poured a lot into Quadra, and also benefited from a strong Green vote. I don't know if they can repeat that in a general election. As for Saskatchewan, there are only a handful of rural western ridings, so the Conservatives best not congratulate themselves too much on their success there.

The NDP may have a looming problem, with the Greens coming on. Granted, the Greens aren't necessarily in competition with the NDP more than they are with the Conservatives and Liberals, but that's the perception right now.

Most every party got something to spin in their favor and to spin against their opponents, with the possible exception of the NDP. But if anyone wants to spin on their behalf, I am all ears.

[tuvor]

2. "The Conservatives poured a lot into Quadra"? Consider what they *didn't* pour into it.

Harper was in Vancouver for some environmental B.S., and had a chance for a photo-op with his Vancouver candidate only a week or two ago.

Either Harper thought wrongly that they didn't have a snowball's chance and so didn't bother, or he was smart enough to know that any appearance would only result in fewer Conservative votes.

[Caradoc]

3. Dion must go

If the liberals could just settle on someone like Ralph Goodale or Dan McTeague, Harper would be history by now. I don't doubt Dion's sincerity, but he has absolutely no gravitas whatsoever. The Kosovo decision, and the decision to tacitly support 'one China' (effectively telling Tibet and Taiwan to shut up so we can do more trade with authoritarian China) would be so easy to capitalize on if the liberals had anything approaching an effective leader.

[daleo]

5. He was elected by the party in a fair contest

He has to get at least one try at a general election, maybe two. Changing leaders now would be a disaster.

[daleo]

4. The Globe had some stories about this pre-election

They poured a lot of money and human resources into the election. I presume that was to "get out the vote", which worked suspiciously well near the end of the night, when a 1000 vote Liberal lead nearly evaporated in the last quarter of the polls to report.

I think Harper wisely stayed away - that way his credibility wouldn't be on the line, and the Cadman affair wouldn't be played up by his very presence.