If Georgia was part of Nato would this be WWIII?

[Traps]

http://www.thoughtleader.co.za/traps/2008/08/09/south-ossetia-how-close-is-world-war-iii/

Would NATO feel obliged to implement its mutual defence undertaking?

[Patriot Abroad]

1. A fair question . . . and an interesting geopolitical situation

I would expect the parts of NATO which don't live 3000 miles overseas will not now be rushing to add new members; the EU is largely under the Russian sphere of influence thanks to their oil, and I cannot see the EU portion of NATO wanting to provoke confrontation.

The US is now in a tough position; it can't isolate Russia as it did during the cold war, and rattling swords at Russia seems to be a bit hollow a gesture when most of the swords are already committed to Afghan, Korea, and of course Iraq - the USA is now in a similar position to that which the USSR found itself after many bruising years of occupying Afghanistan; there is no public will for a further conflict.

The people of Georgia must be feeling a bit betrayed at the moment.

What other nation will take a chance in this period of perceived weakness? I wouldn't be surprised to see China squeeze Taiwan a bit . . . as there are vague reports that the US is putting a lot of naval resources towards Iran, this creates a vacuum elsewhere . . . and the Chinese could always sell a few US treasury bonds (i.e. all of them which they hold) to do interesting things to the US economy.

Tom Clancy wouldn't write about our current situation because there's no way for the "good guys" to win.

[Patriot Abroad]

2. And to answer your original question

I think if Georgia had joined, say, last year, it would have been a tough sell for the original members of NATO to jump into a conflict of questionable origin; given that Georgia didn't actually hold its own territory and instigated an act of aggression to try to take it.

In short, I would hope that cooler heads would have prevailed.

And I have to admire the Russians pointing at Iraq as a precedent. Bush seems to be hoisted by his own petard on that one.