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Laura PourMeADrink Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jan-09-05 06:08 PM
Original message
Calling:"IT'S THE MACHINES STUPID" ANALYSTS. Let's find the Pattern
Edited on Sun Jan-09-05 06:37 PM by Laura PackYourBags
Ok, MACHINE FRAUD BELIEVERS: Let’s take one issue and figure it out ! One step at a time. Let’s find the patterns. These three threads are all about the same thing - they either took Gore + a percent or Bush 2000 + a percent. Unfortunately, TinFoil_Beret has not posted since this 12/7 post -- looked like she/he was on to something. Tell me what a good systematic plan would be for us to complete a real study on this issue (database to use, states, precincts to start with and how to divide them up) Our goal will be a comprehensive document "PATTERNS OF USING 2000 DATA FOR PLUGGING FRAUDULENT TOTALS.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x114559#114559
Tinfoil_beret

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x226812#226812
L Coyote

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x111561#111561
Berniew

PLEASE HELP ! I WANT TO SEE THE CHIMP GO BACK TO THE ZOO !!!


ON EDIT TO CLARIFY: I, like you, believe there is massive amounts of examples of fraud, suspicious behavior, overt criminal behavior, and anomolies. Because that can be so overwhelming, what I am suggesting here is to take ONE specific piece of this and analyze it to the point where we have a comprehensive conclusion. Taking one methodical step at a time:

PREMISE: That electronic voting machines in 2004 were rigged using the 2000 election data/results as a basis for calculating a fraudulent election result.

OBJECTIVE: To determine the pattern(s) of this behavior

SCOPE: At a minimum, FLORIDA and OHIO and a selected benchmark state - i.e. Which state do we think was the least likely to be rigged? CT ? Open for suggestions.

METHODOLOGY: Open for suggestions. DU Volunteers to sign up and take precints?? Need to flush this out

SOURCE: Need to determine database(s) to use.

Hope this makes more sense. I believe that we are kind of spinning in TOO much FRAUD that we should focus and take a step at a time. There is tons of evidence of machine fraud. The next step, IMHO, is to determine the patterns and places where it was done. Then comes how, and then comes who.

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berniew1 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jan-09-05 06:14 PM
Response to Original message
1. Don't understand you post; the pattern has been documented
Edited on Sun Jan-09-05 06:15 PM by berniew1
There was widespread and systematic voter suppression of minority voters, dirty tricks, vote machine fraud, dirty tricks and other vote manipulation in Ohio, New Mexico, and Florida- that was of magnitude enough to call in question who won those states.

http://www.flcv.com/fraudpat.html
http://www.flcv.com/EIRSFla.html
http://northnet.org/minstrel/alpage.htm
http://www.freepress.org/departments/display/19
http://www.helpamericarecount.org/NewMexicoData/NewMexicoGeneralElection.pdf
http://www.flcv.com/bernalil.html
etc.

and also similar patterns in other states where the suppression and fraud did not change the election results including vote machine fraud in Calif., Pennsylvania, Washington, Texas, etc.
http://www.flcv.com/orangets.html
http://www.flcv.com/snohomis.html
http://www.flcv.com/mercerco.html
http://www.votersunite.org
etc.

(the voter suppression of minorities in Mercer County is the worst I've ever seen-followup needed)

The unethical and illegal actions were so systematic and widespread that this cannot be allowed to continue uninvestigated and unpunished. There was a huge amount of obvious malfeasance and dirty tricks that should be investigated and dealt with
http://www.flcv.com/dirtytrf.html
http://www.flcv.com/EIRSFla2.html
http://northnet.org/minstrel/alpage.htm
http://www.votersunite.org
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Bill MI Donating Member (65 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jan-10-05 10:58 PM
Response to Reply #1
34. Excellent reply to the doubter LauraPackYourBags
We need to get the word out to people.

Send e-mail to everyone you know if you have not yet. :o
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seaclyr Donating Member (182 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jan-10-05 11:10 PM
Response to Reply #1
35. as I understand it, the question is how 2000 data may have been used
as a reference point for the manipulation of 2004 numbers. If a connection of this kind could be demonstrated it would perhaps provide an underlying schema to the patterns that you list and which I would suppose few of us dispute.
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LiberalEsto Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jan-09-05 06:17 PM
Response to Original message
2. I had a chat after church today
with a friend who works for the National Security Agency here in the DC area. He said four of his co-workers were involved in testing Maryland's electronic voting machines last summer and were shocked at how easily the machines' C++ program code could be altered, without leaving any sign that the changes had been made.

Apparently 60 Minutes was going to do a story about this, but backed out at the last minute because of the hoohah that week over Dan Rather's story about B*sh's weaseling out of his National Guard duty.
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Wilms Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jan-09-05 06:35 PM
Response to Reply #2
3. SHIT!
I remember that. That's why it kills me that the MSM is called "liberal". And it's another reason I tought he should resign.
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Niche Donating Member (687 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jan-09-05 07:05 PM
Response to Reply #2
4. I may be totally out on a linb here since I know nothing about
computers... but my computer at work 2 weeks into and after the alection was constantly giving me some weird c++ box -- now nothing. Don't know what that means or if anything... but I just caught this reply about c++ and it was giving me hell for a few weeks... I guess it just means "run time error" don't know? Don't attack me for being a computer novice.
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LiberalEsto Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jan-10-05 08:27 AM
Response to Reply #4
8. I know NOTHING about programming computers
I'm just passing along what I was told, for whatever that's worth
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MadisonProgressive Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jan-10-05 09:54 PM
Response to Reply #4
26. C++ is a computer language.
This could be normal (although bad programming) or it could be a malicous attempt to alter the code for sinister purposes. Without more informatopn, I lean towaerds the first.

Disclaimer: I could be wrong...
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Kansas Wyatt Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jan-10-05 12:18 PM
Response to Reply #2
16. We could use the CBS fiasco to our advantage...
Since the CBS has been targeted for Rather's story about Shrub's NG duty, perhaps CBS should be pressed to actually report the REAL news that it did throw away. If the Right Wing wants to scream and cry about real news, then agree with them and let us have it.
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seaclyr Donating Member (182 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jan-09-05 10:29 PM
Response to Original message
5. I agree there's got to be a pattern and it makes total sense that
2000 was the reference. I believe it just had to be - they had a ton of information on 2000, and had lots of time to come up with contingency measures for 2004 if things weren't looking good, as of course they weren't. I've done a rough comparison of the popular vote at time intervals during election nights 2000 and 2004 and it seems that the Bush margin over Kerry throughout the night was consistently about 3 percentage points higher than Bush vs. Gore. Which, if correct, suggests that problems may have been widespread and systematic.
Which states to focus on? There are several criteria one could use, for example:
1. states with large exit poll - "actual" vote differentials;
2. states that gave suspiciously high "extra" Bush votes relative to 2000;
3. states that were battleground ones, particularly if irregularities appeared to affect the outcome;
etc.
So states that fit all of the above probably would be good to look at, but if problems are really widespread then pretty much any state is worth investigating. It's quite likely that even if the outcome wasn't affected some padding of the popular vote occurred, for example.
I don't happen to think CT would be a good benchmark - as I recall exit poll numbers differed significantly from "actuals" and there was a big 2004-2000 vote differential that favored Bush. It's hard to suggest what a good benchmark would be though, it's my sense that most states had something going on. I guess there's SD, where things didn't change too much relative to 2000 and probably weren't expected to.
Methodology - I'm sure others are much more knowledgeable than I am.
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Laura PourMeADrink Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jan-10-05 09:40 PM
Response to Reply #5
23. Seaclyr -- I was out of town today and just got back to read
all this. Just glancing through -- looks like there's some great ideas here. I will read all the posts and respond back as soon as possible. THANKS !!!
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k8conant Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jan-09-05 10:31 PM
Response to Original message
6. I'm starting to look over all this again...
haven't been able to discern the pattern, but it's entirely possibly there is no easily discernable pattern. I'll keep plugging.
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Lurker321 Donating Member (132 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jan-09-05 10:35 PM
Response to Original message
7. All precincts in Florida and I am pretty sure in a couple days
all precincts in Ohio will be available for a private-citizen recount. See www.floridarecount.com for details of how it can be done and how it was done in Florida. Ohio has similar laws.

Easiest way to prove that the machines were not counting ballots correctly - recount the ballots by hand, at least in a dozen precincts if not all. It is possible to do today. Compare the recount results with the machine results.
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k8conant Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jan-10-05 09:46 PM
Response to Reply #7
24. This link doesn't work...
See www.floridarecount.com for details
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Lurker321 Donating Member (132 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jan-10-05 10:49 PM
Response to Reply #24
29. Oops - it is
www.recountflorida.com of course.
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nmoliver Donating Member (129 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jan-10-05 08:40 AM
Response to Original message
9. Texas and California
I say start with Texas and California. Wayne Madsen has pointed us in that direction: two states that were considered "safe", and good venues for padding the popular vote margin without getting caught. Then NC: also a "safe" state, lots of fraud reported anecdotally; exit polls said NC was "too close to call". Exit polls also said that about Virginia, so maybe Virginia also.
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Laura PourMeADrink Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jan-10-05 09:04 AM
Response to Reply #9
10. So we divide this into categories: (1) Too Close to call states
(2) No Fraud States (ha) (3) Big B** States?
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roseBudd Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jan-10-05 11:20 AM
Response to Original message
11. The extra 4000 Bush votes in 1 precinct in Gahana OH/Franklin Cty
Here is the thread I brought back up from Nov. 14.

There is a type of memory that can be used as part of the hardware. programmers help me on this. This may be our smoking gun in OH if someone (Arnebeck) can have the card reader impounded and examined.

DU programmer WhiteKnight wrote:

And the original thread from Nov. 14:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...



/*

About me:
I have a graduate degree in computer science, and more than 15 years of experience as a software engineer working with highly reliable systems.I have a knack for looking at the results of software failures and figuring out what's wrong with the code. For now, I prefer to remain anonymous and will go by the handle: WhiteKnight
(email: whiteknightfordemocracy@yahoo.com ).


About the bizzare vote counts in one Ohio Precinct:

After seeing the Associated Press story titled "Machine Error Gives Bush Extra Ohio Votes", I started thinking about the numbers reported in the story, whichare:

Votes for Bush: 4258
Votes for Kerry: 260
Total number of voters: 638

It also says that Bush "actually received 365 votes". That means there must have been 13 votes for other candidates (638-260-365 = 13).


I wondered how this result could have been produced. They called it a "failure", but I know a lot about how systems can fail, and this sounded fishy. Why were Kerry's vote totals recorded properly, but not Bush's? It's much more likely that a system failure would cause either no vote totals to be recorded at all, or that both totals would be corrupted.

I suppose it could have been a hardware failure that occurred right after Kerry's vote total had been written to storage, and just as Bush's was being written. But that's likely to be a very narrow time window. It's possible, but sounds like a very rare failure mode. It just seems odd that out of the whole universe of possible failures, we get a failure that records Kerry's votes correctly, and corrupts Bush's total.

Think of it this way: In basketball you know there are many ways a shot can fail to go in. It can go off the glass and miss, it can bounce off the front of the rim, rattle out, airball etc... etc... But there is one particular failed shot that's very rare: when the ball comes in at just the right trajectory with just the right speed, and it lodges between the rim and the backboard - just sticks there. I've seen it happen maybe a couple of times in years of watching the NBA.

So think of the odds of a failure that records Kerry's votes correctly, but corrupts Bush's as analogous to the ball jamming there between the rim and backboard. Pretty rare failure huh? Well, it gets even worse:

Why was the number off by only several thousand?

If the votes are added up using a 4 byte unsigned integer, then the possible values range from 0 to 4,294,967,296 (over 4 Billion). If a random bit error or hardware storage error occurred, then why didn't Bush get say 3,239,568 extra votes in this particular "failure"? Most true failures would result in some wild number that you would immediately recognize as garbage.

The analogy here is: not only did the basketball lodge between rim and glass, but the Spalding logo ended up perfectly horizontal, aligned front and center.

Given all of this, I decided to explore ways that vote counting software could end up with these particular results. Was someone adding a percentage to the Bush votes? Was there some multiplier involved?

After thinking about it for an hour or so, I decided to take a different tack: think like the person who is trying to rig the election. What would you do? You wouldn't really want to change the total number of voters. That might be too easy to detect given people being checked off on voter roles. Instead you would want to shift votes from one candidate to another. Maybe every 10th vote for kerry, you'd instead give to Bush.

OK, that's pretty easy to program, but it wouldn't expain the bizzare results in this one precinct in Ohio. But... what if the evil programmer made a mistake? Maybe one line of code had an error they didn't catch.

I decided to write a small vote counting program, and add in a function to steal every 10th vote. Once that was working I'd introduce a small error and see if the results came close the Ohio results reported by AP.

The program below is the result.

As you will see, there is one line of code that is supposed to add a stolen vote to Bush's total, and should be written as:

b = b + 1;

but (I theorize) it was mis-typed as:

b = b + k;

So instead of adding one stolen vote to Bush's total, it adds the running total of Kerry votes to Bush's total. Whoops!

The output from the program with the typo in place is:

starting election
Election results: b: 4258 k: 260 o: 13
(the actual votes: b: 336 k: 288 o: 14)

The output from the program with the typo corrected is:

starting election
Election results: b: 365 k: 260 o: 13
(the actual votes: b: 336 k: 288 o: 14)

So the intent was to shift 29 votes from other candidates to Bush, but the one-line programming mistake gives him an extra 3922 votes.

I'm not saying this proves that this is what happened, but it does indeed prove that a small, one-line programming error by an evildoer programmer could produce the results seen in this one Ohio precinct.

-WhiteKnight

p.s. Please circulate this as far and wide as possible. Thanks!

*/
#include <stdio.h>
#include <string.h>

// Vote totals for b=Bush k=Kery o=Other
int b=0, k=0, o=0;
// The set of "real" books:
int breal=0, kreal=0, oreal=0;

//
// Here's the hypothetical "patch" that the evildoer programmer
// might have written:
//
void robOhio(int creal, int* c) {
// Look for every 10th vote from this candidate:
if ((creal % 10)==0) {
// OK, here's the bug. Should have been
// b = b + 1;
// Give the vote to b
b = b + k;
// Take it away from other candidate:
*c = *c - 1;
}
}


int main() {
char votes<1000>;
//
// Here are the votes in a hypothetical order that I made up.
// So in this example, the first two votes went to Kerry, the
// next two to Bush, then one for Kery, one for Bush, one for
// Other, and so on.
//
// The order of the votes does affect the final numbers but,
// even if you change the order, the rough order of magnetude
// of the bogus results stays about the same.
//
//0 1 2 3 4 5
//12345678901234567890123456789012345678901234567890
strcpy(votes,"KKBBKBOKBBKKBBKBBKBBKKBBKBBKBBKKBBKBBKBBKKBBKBBKBB"); // 50
strcat(votes,"KKBBKBKKOBKKBBKBBKBBKKBBKBBKOBKKBKKBKKBBKKBBKBBKBB"); // 100
strcat(votes,"KKBBKBBKBKKKBBKBBKBBKKBOKBBKBBKKBKKBBKBBKKBBKBBKBB"); // 150
strcat(votes,"KKBKKBBKKBKKBKKBBKBBKKBBKBBKBOKKBKKKBKBBKKBBKBBKBB"); // 200
strcat(votes,"KKBKBBBKBBKKBKKBBKBBKKKBKBBKBOKKKBKBBKBBKKBBKBBKBB"); // 250
strcat(votes,"KKBBKBBKBBKKBKKBBKBBKKBBKBOKBBKKBKKBBKBBKKBBKBBKBB"); // 300
strcat(votes,"KKKBKBBKBBKKKBKBKKBBKKBKKOKKBKKKBBKBBKBBKKBBKBBKBB"); // 350
strcat(votes,"KKBKKBBKBBKKBBKKBKBOKKBKKBBKBBKKBBKBBKBBKKBBKBBKBB"); // 400
strcat(votes,"KKBKKBBKBBKKBBKBBKBBKBBKKBBKBBKKBBKBBKBBKKBBKBBKBB"); // 450
strcat(votes,"BKKBKBBKBBKKBBKBBKBBKKBKKBBKBBKKBKKBBKBBKKBBKBBKBB"); // 500
strcat(votes,"KKKBKBBKBBKKBBKBBKBBKKBBKBBKBBKKBKKBBKBBKKBBKBBKBB"); // 550
strcat(votes,"KKBBKBBKBBKKBBKBBKBBKKKKKBBKBKKKBOKBBKBBKKBBKBBKBB"); // 600
strcat(votes,"KKBBKBBKBBKKBBKBBKOBKOBKKBOKBOKKBBKBBK"); // 638

printf("starting election\n");

// Start counting votes:
for (int i=0; i<strlen(votes); i++) {
char v = votes;
if (v=='B') {
b = b + 1;
breal = breal + 1;
} else if (v=='K') {
k = k + 1;
kreal = kreal + 1;
// This is not a vote for b, so steal some votes:
robOhio(kreal, &k);
} else if (v=='O') {
o = o + 1;
oreal = oreal + 1;
// This is not a vote for b, so steal some votes:
robOhio(oreal, &o);
}
}
printf("Election results: b: %d k: %d o: %d\n",b,k,o);
printf("(the actual votes: b: %d k: %d o: %d)\n",breal,kreal,oreal);
}



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EuroObserver Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jan-10-05 02:58 PM
Response to Reply #11
21. Well yes, dammit.
(I remember noticing this post at the time).

I quite clearly recall having made just this mistake while programming (adding an accumulator rather than the value required to a running total), probably a few times in the past. Very easy to do, especially if you're in a hurry and/or feeling nervous. Many programmers will have made the same kind of mistake in the course of their careers...

Since this particular 'irregularity' occured in this one precinct in particular, what I see here is the footprint left behind by a hurried (and faulty) intervention to change a piece of code (could have been done online, could have been someone sneaking access through the keyboard) on a particular machine.

Notice that the implication of the above is that the "final" result is still not the "real" result: the "final" (declared) result would appear to include the "correct" _fix_ hypothesised (shifting one in ten from kerry to *).

Investigate, investigate... However, surely by now the (coded) evidence would have been erased. So: check the paper or other such records if there are any (hand recount - I gather this may yet be possible in selected precincts).
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Laura PourMeADrink Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jan-11-05 06:47 PM
Response to Reply #11
38. Wow, very interesting. I have another post saved somewhere, I
will look for it. The premise was similar, and she ran a routine to test it and it came very close. I think it was that it should have been after every 100th vote move one K to B, but assumed the evildoer programmer screwed up and wrote every 10th vote move one K to B. Same difference.

Please don't go too far, we need you to help analyze once we decide on where to start and where to find the dbases.
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L. Coyote Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jan-10-05 11:41 AM
Response to Original message
12. Building a National Election Results Database
One place to direct energy on this issue is making data accessible. At USCountVotes, a national datbase is being built. They need precinct level results. Check it out at:

http://www.USCountVotes.org/
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chorti Donating Member (104 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jan-10-05 11:42 AM
Response to Original message
13. a little more rigorous examination
I think this analysis needs to be a little more rigorous. I think you will need to pair a test state with neighboring states where you think there was no fraud. Voting trends are much more regional than national. So it would not make sense to compare South Dakota to Florida for example. In fact, I have found comparing border counties in one questionable state to contiguous counties in the border state to be very helpful. For example, with Ohio, I would use Indiana and Michigan as the comparison group.

For Florida .... I don't trust the Georgia results, nor Alabama, nor South Carolina, so I don't know about a comparison. And I don't trust the Florida 2000 results to use as a base, so I think something special would have to be done in Florida.

For Pennsylvania I would use New York as a comparison.

For Tennessee I would use Kentucky as a comparison.

For Alabama I would use Mississippi as a comparison.

For Arkansas I would use Louisiana as a comparison.

For California, I would simply use counties within the state as a comparison and really examine Riverside, San Bernardino, and San Diego.

For Nevada I would use California (minus Riverside/San Bernardino) as a comparison.

For New Mexico, I would use Arizona as a comparison.

For Nebraska, I would use South Dakota as a comparison.

I would probably start with those states, because that is where I have seen the greatest anomalies.

You would need to look at:
Change in Gore to Kerry
Change in Gore+Nader to Kerry
Change in Bush00 to Bush04
Change in number of votes compared to population change
Change in other statewide race in 00 to other statewide race in 04, compared to change in 00 and 04 presidential races
Change in voter registration by party from 00 to 04
Change in number of precincts from 00 to 04
Basic demographics - race and ethnicity for each county
Use the regional model of 2004 voting based on 2000 voting to project expected number of votes per candidate - i.e. 90% of Bush00 voters also voted for Bush in 04, 80% of 3rd-party-voters-2000 voted for Kerry in 04, etc.

I would start with counties and once you identify your target counties (greatest potential of fraud) then you go to the precinct level and do the same analysis over again.
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Laura PourMeADrink Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jan-10-05 09:49 PM
Response to Reply #13
25. Chorti -- Thanks for all the input. I was out of town all day, just
got in. I am going read all this and respond back asap.
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Laura PourMeADrink Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jan-11-05 07:15 PM
Response to Reply #13
40. Good points about the comparison states. That would be a
second level, though. From what I've seen so far, people that found a Y2k pattern found it in selected precincts/counties. So the first comparision would be to other precincts and counties within the same state, and then to neighbor ??

Also, I like the way you developed the methodology. I'll repost for comments.

I don't know if you have read this, but it is a study on red shift. It's all good, but look at Battleground States Data tab. Shows the top and bottom shifters. NH, OH, PA, MN, and FL top five.
http://www.selftest.net/redshift.htm
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Imnottelling Donating Member (22 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jan-10-05 12:09 PM
Response to Original message
14. Pattern?
I agree that the general pattern seems like it has been documented. I don't think it will be possible to discover the "algorithm" that was used to rig the machines, e.g. Bush 2004 = Bush 2000 + 0.5% and Kerry 2004 = Gore 2000 - 1.0% or anything like that.

You wouldn't want to make the pattern obvious.

IMO, everybody expected the popular vote for president to be pretty close so a little fraud will go a long way if you know what I mean. Of course, only the electoral college matters so the states that you will win or lose are left alone, for the most part, and you concentrate on battleground states. I suppose you could trim some votes here and there to pad the popular vote in non-battleground states but the risk isn't necessarily worth the reward in these cases. The close states are different though. Again, I think you have to consider the risk vs. reward when you decide how many votes to steal. It can't be really glaringly obvious that election fraud took place so you can only steal a little at a time. So, if I were to do it I would do the following:

In every precinct that I could, I would shift a random percentage of Kerry votes to Bush votes, but the percentage would be between 1% and 5%....no more or it would begin to look obvious and it would have to be random so that a pattern would be impossible to find. Of course, if Kerry was winning by a lot then the fraud won't work and Bush would still lose. One should also consider that if everything goes great this will be nearly undectable, but mistakes are bound to be made and found out...by us! For example, the fact that in a couple counties (I can't remember the details off hand) the Democratic Ohio supreme court candidate got many thousands more votes that Kerry while the GOP Ohio supreme court candidate get many thousands less than Bush is suspect. That must have been a mistake on their part. I find it hard to believe that somebody wishing to commit election fraud would not take all election races into account. That is a big mistake and huge plume of smoke...so to speak.

Anway, my point is that one can still keep looking for patterns in the election "results" and look for anomalous results. However, I wouldn't expect there to be anything remotely obvious like a simple formula that would be applied to all machines.

Further, I think it is necessary to look in depth at ALL the states to show that, presumbly, the non-battleground states do not show the same sort of "manipulation" the other states show. We need a control group. Using past elections is good too. I'm afraid though that without a smoking gun like a confession only statistical arguments can be made and, unfortunately, most people don't have the scientific preparation to understand the argument :( Some creative argument framing for the layperson will be needed.
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seaclyr Donating Member (182 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jan-10-05 12:56 PM
Response to Reply #14
18. You make some really good points
but I'm not sure that non-battleground states weren't manipulated too. If battleground states were manipulated, the there would almost have to be manipulation of others primarily because otherwise the numbers in battleground states would stand out even more than they did. So it's my guess that padding was necessary for two reasons, one to make sure numbers in battleground states weren't uniquely "off", and, secondarily to pad the vote. So while I understand your argument about the risk factor, I think there's another side to it. It may have been considered less risky to manipulate far and wide (relatively speaking) than to manipulate in just a few key states.
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Imnottelling Donating Member (22 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jan-10-05 01:17 PM
Response to Reply #18
19. Yeah, I agree with you.
I really have a hard time deciding between the plausibility of those two things. I'm sure padding the popular vote for Bush as a BIG motivator this time around after 2000. Afterall, he really needed the mandate. It's just hard to believe that they would be that audacious.

What I really want to know is the following. We have discovered many strange things in Ohio, Florida, New Mexico (where else?). Have people been looking for oddities in all the other states too? Have they found anything? I remember reading a little about Oregon. Aren't they the ones with strictly absentee ballots? Didn't Oregon match the exit polls nearly spot on? Didn't Oregon have a shocking lack of "irregularities"?

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Zan_of_Texas Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jan-10-05 12:11 PM
Response to Original message
15. The capability to phone in election tampering......
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Amaryllis Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jan-10-05 12:22 PM
Response to Original message
17. See this for excellent documentation on machines:
SnohomishElectionFraudInvestigation.pdf (application/pdf Object)


http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss//duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x268654
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seaclyr Donating Member (182 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jan-10-05 01:40 PM
Response to Original message
20. Would this help?
This may have been presented elsewhere more completely, but I calculated on a state-by-state basis Bush gains (over his Democratic opponent) relative to 2000, both in terms of actual votes and percentages, taken from the numbers at uselectionatlas.org. I then compared them with "actual vote" - exit poll differences for 2004. It's on a spreadsheet that I'm not sure I know how to import here, but I could probably show the numbers as an ordered list.
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seaclyr Donating Member (182 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jan-10-05 09:26 PM
Response to Original message
22. states with pro-B* changes relative to 2000
Edited on Mon Jan-10-05 09:30 PM by seaclyr
In the list below, states are ranked in order of vote gain for B* relative to Kerry, compared to B*-Gore in 2000.

In other words, B*vote gain = (B* votes - Kerry votes)(2004) minus (B* votes - Gore votes)(2000);
also, B*%gain = (B*% - Kerry%)(2004) minus (B*% - Gore%)2000;
and "actual" - exit = (B*% - Kerry%)("actual") minus (B*% - Kerry%)(from exit polls)



State, B*vote gain, B*%gain, "actual" - exit

  1. FL, 380700, 5.01, 6
  2. NY, 352000, 6.69, 7.6
  3. TX, 328100, 1.55, -2.8
  4. TN, 267500, 9.4, -3
  5. NJ, 264000, 9.16, 3
  6. GA, 243900, 4.91, 3.2
  7. AL, 233000, 10.7, 8
  8. OK, 185000, 9.26, 2
  9. IN, 167000, 5.04, 3.2
  10. LA, 146000, 6.83, 4.2
  11. KY, 125000, 4.73, 2
  12. MO, 118300, 3.88, 3
  13. AZ, 114000, 4.18, 5.2
  14. UT, 113500, 5.05, 5.8
  15. CT, 91400, 7.11, 6.8
  16. KS, 79400, 4.58, -4.8
  17. CA, 64200, 1.85, -3.2
  18. NC, 62100, -0.39, 8
  19. PA, 61600, 1.69, 6.6
  20. MS, 58500, 3.05, 6.6
  21. SC, 56400, 1.16, 9.2
  22. NE, 56200, 4.22, 8.8
  23. WV, 56100, 6.51, 2.6
  24. MI, 54800, 1.78, 2
  25. AR, 53100, 4.3, 2.2
  26. VA, 42400, 0.17, 5
  27. MD, 33500, 3.95, 0.8
  28. RI, 28200, 8.83, 6.8
  29. IA, 15300, 0.99, 2.4
  30. DE, 14300, 5.46, 10
  31. SD, 11400, -1.27, -3.2
  32. WY, 10200, -0.27, 2.6
  33. NM, 6300, 0.85, 3.6
  34. ND, 6100, -0.25, 4.8
  35. MA, 4900, 2.14, 6.8
  36. HI, 3000, 9.58, -2.4
  37. ID, 2900, -1.41, 5.8
  38. IL, 2400, 1.68, 4
  39. NV, 0, -0.95, 1.8
  40. WI, -5700, -0.16, 4
  41. MT, -10900, -4.58, 0
  42. NH, -16500, -2.64, 9.8
  43. DC, -28100, -3.63, 0.2
  44. ME, -32800, -3.87, 1.4
  45. VT, -33600, -10.21, 9.6
  46. MN, -39700, -1.07, 6
  47. CO, -46000, -3.69, 3.2
  48. OH, -46400, -1.39, 6.2
  49. WA, -66100, -1.61, 2.8
  50. OR, -69800, -3.72, -1.6


Numbers were calculated from data in uselectionatlas.org as of about 1/1/05 and typically were rounded to 3 significant figures. They may not be based on the most up to date data and I can't swear that there isn't a mistake here and there (I didn't check all the math that closely). There could easily be better, more accurate lists out there that I've missed. Nevertheless, the above list should provide a good rough indication of where extra B* votes came from, state by state.
on edit: I believe I omitted Alaska, sorry! I'll include later
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seaclyr Donating Member (182 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jan-10-05 10:53 PM
Response to Reply #22
31. AK numbers, add to #22
For the sake of completeness:
AK, -8,000, -5.4, 8.8
It should have been #41, between #40 (WI) and #42 (now MT).
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ROH Donating Member (521 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jan-10-05 10:41 PM
Response to Original message
27. Ohio Precincts
Did you see the post here about a month ago (sorry I can't locate it now) which compared 2004 Ohio precinct results with the 2000 results, showing the same pattern in several consecutive precincts?

>>SCOPE: At a minimum, FLORIDA and OHIO and a selected benchmark state - i.e. Which state do we think was the least likely to be rigged? CT ? Open for suggestions.

One suggestion is Oregon, which had postal votes only.
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seaclyr Donating Member (182 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jan-10-05 10:48 PM
Response to Reply #27
28. Oregon as a benchmark looks good
see post #22. Oregon doesn't look suspicious in any way.
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ROH Donating Member (521 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jan-10-05 10:56 PM
Response to Reply #28
33. OK
Can anyone here locate the post about a month ago that compared 2004 Ohio precinct results with the 2000 results, showing the same pattern in several consecutive precincts?

It deserved more analysis, but seemed to indicate a clear pattern.
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Laura PourMeADrink Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jan-11-05 06:35 PM
Response to Reply #33
37. You don't think it was one of the post I put in my original message???
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ROH Donating Member (521 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jan-11-05 08:55 PM
Response to Reply #37
47. No...
it was definitely a separate post.

It compared the 2004 electoral votes in Ohio precincts against the 2000 electoral votes, and several pairs (one triplet) of precincts seemed to have the same multiple.
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Bill MI Donating Member (65 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jan-10-05 10:52 PM
Response to Original message
30. Just read BlackBoxVoting.org
They have a book and some other excellent analysis on this subject.

BlackBoxVoting.org
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Bill MI Donating Member (65 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jan-10-05 10:53 PM
Response to Reply #30
32. And, of course, THIS IS NOT ABOUT OVERTURNING
THE ELECTION! It is about forcing the issue of election reform.
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Laura PourMeADrink Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jan-11-05 06:18 PM
Response to Reply #32
36. Bill, this is about putting the crooks in jail! If we find the pattern
and publish, THEY will feel very bad and confess and say, John Move on in, we need an honest guy down here.


Thanks for the input and links!B-)
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adolfo Donating Member (525 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jan-11-05 07:03 PM
Response to Original message
39. Odd Florida Patterns Discovered
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Laura PourMeADrink Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jan-11-05 07:39 PM
Response to Reply #39
43. Adolfo ! Good find !! Question -- Just so I understand, when
you compared votes to registered voters, you found pairs. And a pair is defined as:

Two precincts, Kerry ratio of votes to registered voters was, for example 50%, in both precincts. And B**'s ratio for the same two precincts was 50% as well. Or 50% for both K & B in 2 precincts?
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adolfo Donating Member (525 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jan-11-05 08:04 PM
Response to Reply #43
44. An example.
Edited on Tue Jan-11-05 08:07 PM by adolfo
In Dade county, Kerry received 66.82% of the total registered Democrats in *both* precincts 143 and 144.

Consider that there are 898 Registered Dems in precinct 143 and 338 Registered Dems in precinct 144. That is a very wide margin for these ratios to match!

Same odd results happen in many other Florida counties so it is not an isolated case.

It looks like someone got sloppy in their vote stealing code.


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Laura PourMeADrink Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jan-11-05 07:20 PM
Response to Original message
41. Comments Please: Red Shift Report - To select States to start with
Edited on Tue Jan-11-05 07:47 PM by Laura PackYourBags
http://www.selftest.net/redshift.htm


All good, but look at the Battleground States Data tab. Most red shift - NH, OH, PA, MN, FL.

Does anyone know offhand which were the top five exit poll anomoly states?? Probably the same 5 ??

Do you think this is the best basis to use? Any other factors to consider in selecting the best states to start with?

Please comment on your list of states we should start with....
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seaclyr Donating Member (182 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jan-11-05 08:06 PM
Response to Reply #41
45. exit poll anomaly states
top 5: DE, NH, VT, SC, NE.
NH is #2, PA #13, OH #15, FL #16 and MN #17.
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Laura PourMeADrink Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jan-11-05 08:35 PM
Response to Reply #45
46. Hmmm...Tops in Different Anomaly Categories
Top 5 B vote gain, relative to Kerry, compared to Gore in Y2K
1. FL
2. NY
3. TX
4. TN
5. NJ

Top 5 Exit Poll Divergence
1. DE
2. NH
3. VT
4. SC
5. NE

Top 5 States - Most Red Shift
1. NH
2. OH
3. PA
4. MN
5. FL

Any other ways to look at it?
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Laura PourMeADrink Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-12-05 08:45 PM
Response to Reply #46
48. Very Interesting, Laura
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Laura PourMeADrink Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jan-11-05 07:24 PM
Response to Original message
42. Comments Please: Chorti's Methodology
Edited on Tue Jan-11-05 07:44 PM by Laura PackYourBags
Data to capture, when we start the analysis:

You would need to look at:
Change in Gore to Kerry
Change in Gore+Nader to Kerry
Change in Bush00 to Bush04
Change in number of votes compared to population change
Change in other statewide race in 00 to other statewide race in 04, compared to change in 00 and 04 presidential races
Change in voter registration by party from 00 to 04
Change in number of precincts from 00 to 04
Basic demographics - race and ethnicity for each county
Use the regional model of 2004 voting based on 2000 voting to project expected number of votes per candidate - i.e. 90% of Bush00 voters also voted for Bush in 04, 80% of 3rd-party-voters-2000 voted for Kerry in 04, etc.

Adding:
Result to Registered Voters

I would start with counties and once you identify your target counties (greatest potential of fraud) then you go to the precinct level and do the same analysis over again.


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Laura PourMeADrink Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-12-05 08:50 PM
Response to Original message
49. Reference Material:Triad Counties in Ohio
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seaclyr Donating Member (182 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jan-13-05 10:37 PM
Response to Original message
50. I think chorti's ideas make a lot of sense
including the idea of using a neighborhood state for comparison. What I'm afraid of though is that there may be very few "clean" neighborhood states out there. It's just hard to find states where the numbers can be completely trusted. Look at the following, for example, where two measures of possible irregularities are listed for potential comparison states. The first, labeled "exit" is the percentage gain (Bush over Kerry) going from exit polls to "actual" votes and the second, labeled B+%, is percentage gain by Bush over Kerry in 2004, relative to Bush vs. Gore in 2000.

______PA___NY
exit    6.6    7.6
B+%   1.69  6.69
Looking at it this way, I'm not sure NY looks any better than PA, it may even be worse.

The same goes for AR and LA

_____AR___LA
exit   2.2    4.2
B+%   4.3   6.83

for TN and KY

_____TN___KY
exit   -3      2
B+%   9.4   4.73

and for NM and AZ

_____NM___AZ
exit   3.6     5.2
B+%  0.85   4.18

For similar reasons, I don't believe one can completely trust IN or MS, either.


So I think "clean" states may be hard to find. Doesn't mean to say one gives up on the analysis, but one may wind up comparing "awful" with just plain "bad".


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